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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles17
BY 11final margin
DolphinsMiami28
Los Angeles Rams 17 at Miami Dolphins 28. Final.
Rams -3.5 upsetU 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 8
Miami Dolphins 28, Rams 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 10:17, 2nd and 9, on Jared Goff — 33.6 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:17 · 2nd and 9
Jared Goff
Dolphins
(10:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at MIA 17 for -8 yards (91-E.Ogbah). FUMBLES (91-E.Ogbah) [91-E.Ogbah], RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at MIA 22. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 28–17. Biggest swing: Q2 10:17, Dolphins +33.6% win probability on one snap.
33.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tua TagovailoaRamsQ1 12:45(12:45) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 18 for -5 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [90-M.Brockers], touched at MIA 20, RECOVERED by LA-54-L.Floyd at MIA 15.
16.4pts
Jared GoffDolphinsQ2 3:01(3:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 23 for -8 yards (90-S.Lawson). FUMBLES (90-S.Lawson) [90-S.Lawson], RECOVERED by MIA-53-K.Van Noy at LA 29. 53-K.Van Noy to LA 1 for 28 yards (34-M.Brown).
14.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.54 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 0 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Rams at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — 2 giveaways, against Rams at 4 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Rams181 of 195 plays carry both curves
(10:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at MIA 17 for -8 yards (91-E.Ogbah). FUMBLES (91-E.Ogbah) [91-E.Ogbah], RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at MIA 22. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +33.6 for DolphinsExpected points +11.49 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 14 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:17LA +34% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at MIA 17 for -8 yards (91-E.Ogbah). FUMBLES (91-E.Ogbah) [91-E.Ogbah], RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at MIA 22. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:45LA +16% win prob(12:45) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 18 for -5 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [90-M.Brockers], touched at MIA 20, RECOVERED by LA-54-L.Floyd at MIA 15.
2nd · 3:01LA +15% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 23 for -8 yards (90-S.Lawson). FUMBLES (90-S.Lawson) [90-S.Lawson], RECOVERED by MIA-53-K.Van Noy at LA 29. 53-K.Van Noy to LA 1 for 28 yards (34-M.Brown).
1st · 3:02LA +12% win prob(3:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 94-C.Wilkins at LA 41. 94-C.Wilkins to LA 33 for 8 yards (10-C.Kupp).
2nd · 4:51LA +12% win prob(4:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 81-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe (55-J.Baker) [55-J.Baker] at MIA 22. 21-E.Rowe to MIA 26 for 4 yards (81-G.Everett).
2nd · 11:11LA +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Andrew Van Ginkel's 78-yard touchdown with 10:17 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
2nd0:15Kai Forbath·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+310–28
4th10:03Robert Woods·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+717–28
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryDolphins
Rams6–2Dolphins
471Total yards147
5.2Yards per play3.1
47%Success rate34%
41%Third-down rate25%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays0
30First downs8
2Sacks taken1
4Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.25Rams: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.49Dolphins: −0.49 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.41Rams: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.45Dolphins: −0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Rams: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.54Dolphins: −0.54 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 91 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 47 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Dolphins 2.
NoteRams outgained Dolphins 471-147 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.7 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Dolphins14.5%
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 25.0 points below their season mean of 25.0% and 1.3 times their own 19.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
66Austin BlytheC · Every snap100%95 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%95 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%95 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Every snap100%95 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%95 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%95 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time97%92 snaps
17Robert WoodsWR · Full-time93%88 snaps
11Josh ReynoldsWR · Full-time81%77 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation60%57 snaps
34Malcolm BrownRB · Heavy rotation60%57 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Heavy rotation55%52 snaps
23Cam AkersRB · Situational21%20 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Situational19%18 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Situational15%14 snaps
Inactive · 5
Brian AllenCA'Shawn RobinsonDTRaymond CalaisRBBrycen HopkinsTETrishton JacksonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff sacked−33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at MIA 17 for -8 yards (91-E.Ogbah). FUMBLES (91-E.Ogbah) [91-E.Ogbah], RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at MIA 22. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:17 · Rams · 2nd & goal at MIA 9 · lost 13 · -11.49 EP · −33.1% win probability
179 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 89 yards from the LA 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
-0.29
Success rate
39%
Yards
616
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR77-0.3177%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.3836%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15-0.8287%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0421%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1040%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 38
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 23
Rams6Dolphins0
Rams7Dolphins0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Dolphins 4
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Rams 39
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 49
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 15
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 39
Rams7Dolphins6
Rams7Dolphins7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Rams 3
2nd quarter60 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Dolphins 36
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Rams7Dolphins13
Touchdown2 plays
Rams7Dolphins14
Rams7Dolphins20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 28
Rams7Dolphins21
Intercepted8 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Dolphins 27
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 32
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Rams 31
Rams7Dolphins27
Rams7Dolphins28
Touchdown2 plays
Rams10Dolphins28
Field goal20 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Dolphins 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Punt4 plays
Drive ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Rams 49
Drive ended3 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 26
Punt1 play
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 30
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Dolphins 41
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Dolphins 46
4th quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Dolphins 44
Rams16Dolphins28
Rams17Dolphins28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Dolphins 11
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Rams 48
No good11 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Dolphins 30
Punt11 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Rams 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Rams 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ramscategory by categoryDolphins
Rams6
Dolphins0
