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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2020 Week 8
It turned at Q4 14:57, 3rd and 4, on Hunter Renfrow — 10.2 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:57 · 3rd and 4
Hunter Renfrow
Raiders
(14:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Las Vegas Raiders 16–6. Biggest swing: Q4 14:57, Raiders +10.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 29.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
10.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 10 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Raiders won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Browns at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 1 giveaway.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(14:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Hunter Renfrow's 4-yard touchdown catch with 14:57 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Hunter Renfrow4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Derek CarrLead never changed again+713–66 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryBrowns
Raiders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 69 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Browns’s 47 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Browns 3.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's sack or hit rate, 3.4%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
LV's early-down pass rate, 35.8%, is past their previous low of 40.8% in week 5 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
LV's pass rate over expected, −9.9 pts, is past their previous low of −3.8 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders-9.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.5 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 69 snaps
Browns-4.7 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 87%
Tendencies room →Raiders35.8%leaned — ran early · −18.2 vs their 54.1%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 53 early downs
Browns60.0%inside their normal wobble · +11.0 vs their 49.0%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Raiders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 42.5%.
Browns—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 28%
Tendencies room →Raiders3.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Browns6.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 35.8%, 18.2 points below their season mean of 54.1% and 1.5 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
12/25, 122 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-1.7 expected points added · -18.1% completion over expected
Passing · LV
15/24, 111 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.1 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 14:57 · Raiders · 3rd & goal at CLE 4 · gained 4 · +2.55 EP · +15.9% win probability
146 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 13 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 13 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 79 yards from the LV 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders0
Browns3Raiders3Browns3Raiders6Browns3Raiders6Browns6Raiders12Browns6Raiders13Browns6Raiders16Browns6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 15/24 | 111 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 31 | 129 | 4.2 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Derek Carr | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 | +3.3 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 27% | +1.3 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 18% | +5.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Littleton | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Kwiatkoski | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevin Lawson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Johnathan Abram |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/25 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2020_08_LV_CLE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 22 — under by 26.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 29.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Henry Ruggs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 9% | +3.1 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Henry Ruggs | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 18% | −2.0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −2.2 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Nicholas Morrow | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamarcus Joyner | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Erik Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Nassib | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trayvon Mullen | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 66 |
| 4.7 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 | +4.4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 44% | −1.3 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 12% | −2.7 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12% | −0.6 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 12% | +0.0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 12% | −0.3 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Andy Janovich | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Harrison | 2 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Porter Gustin | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Goodson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Smith | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Sendejo | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Elliott | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Olivier Vernon | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
