2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

Cleveland Browns

CLE -1 upsetU 48 ✓35 mph windBrowns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 16–6. Biggest swing: Q4 14:57, CLE +10% win probability on one snap. Played in 35 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 14:57LV — CLE LV ball · 3rd & 4LV 65%

(14:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 14:57CLE +10% win prob(14:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 10:56CLE +10% win prob(10:56) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry pushed ob at LV 24 for 19 yards (27-T.Mullen).
Q1 · 10:38LV +9% win prob(10:38) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q2 · 15:00CLE +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left end pushed ob at LV 20 for 18 yards (24-J.Abram).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Browns
Offensive plays	69	47
Total yards	310 (edge)	223
Yards per play	4.5	4.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	52% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	42%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20	0.21 (edge)
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

12/25, 122 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.7 expected points added · -18.1% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

15/24, 111 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.1 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

31 att, 129 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

14 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

4/11 for 52 yds, 0 TD

44% of team targets · -1.3 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Darren WallerTE

5/6 for 27 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	11	37	4:26	Turnover on downs
2	CLE	CLE 31	5	27	2:45	Fumble
3	LV	LV 27	4	-1	1:22	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 18	14	65	7:52	Turnover on downs
5	LV	LV 32	17	58	8:18	Turnover on downs
6	CLE	CLE 25	5	0	1:15	Punt
7	LV	LV 34	12	51	4:02	Turnover on downs
8	CLE	CLE 25	12	55	6:13	Turnover on downs
9	LV	LV 25	17	71	8:54	Touchdown
10	CLE	CLE 35	6	15	1:42	Punt
11	LV	LV 20	13	66	8:47	Turnover on downs
12	CLE	CLE 25	14	61	2:30	Turnover on downs
13	LV	LV 27	6	28	1:54	End of game

0 of 13 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 71 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	15/24	111	1	0	2	1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	31	129	4.2	2.2
Derek Carr	6	41	6.8	3.3
Devontae Booker	5	29	5.8	0.7
Jalen Richard	1	6	6.0	0.9
Alec Ingold	1	3	3.0	2.2
Henry Ruggs	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	5	6	27	0	27%	1.3
Hunter Renfrow	4	4	26	1	18%	5.3
Jason Witten	2	2	21	0	9%	3.1
Devontae Booker	1	1	17	0	5%	0.8
Jalen Richard	1	1	12	0	5%	-0.1
Henry Ruggs	2	4	8	0	18%	-2.0
Josh Jacobs	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.7
Nelson Agholor	0	2	0	0	9%	-2.2
Foster Moreau	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Cory Littleton	3	2	0
Nick Kwiatkoski	4	1	0
Nevin Lawson	4	1	1
Johnathan Abram	4	0	0
Nicholas Morrow	3	0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	2	1	1
Erik Harris	1	1	0
Carl Nassib	1	1	0
Maxx Crosby	2	0	0
Trayvon Mullen	2	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	12/25	122	0	0	0	-1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	14	66	4.7	0.9
Baker Mayfield	6	29	4.8	4.4
D'Ernest Johnson	2	6	3.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	4	11	52	44%	-1.3
Harrison Bryant	3	3	25	12%	-2.7
David Njoku	1	3	19	12%	-0.6
Rashard Higgins	1	3	14	12%	0.0
Kareem Hunt	2	3	7	12%	-0.3
D'Ernest Johnson	1	1	5	4%	-0.4
Andy Janovich	0	1	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ronnie Harrison	2	8	0.0	1
Porter Gustin	2	5	0.0	0
B.J. Goodson	4	2	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	2	4	0.0	0
Andrew Sendejo	4	1	0.0	0
Mack Wilson	3	2	0.0	0
Kevin Johnson	3	1	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	2	0.0	0
Jordan Elliott	2	2	0.0	0
Olivier Vernon	3	1	2.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -1
Closing total: 48
LV moneyline: +117
CLE moneyline: -130

Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 22 — under by 26.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 35 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: LV 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 35 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.