2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · Lambeau Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Green Bay Packers

GB -5.5 upsetO 47 ✓23 mph windPackers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 28–22. Biggest swing: Q3 9:04, GB +13% win probability on one snap. Played in 23 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 9:04MIN — GB GB ball · 2nd & 17MIN 69%

(9:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan to MIN 37 for 45 yards (41-A.Harris).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 9:04GB +13% win prob(9:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan to MIN 37 for 45 yards (41-A.Harris).
Q4 · 0:12MIN +13% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at MIN 45 for -4 yards (98-D.Wonnum). FUMBLES (98-D.Wonnum) [98-D.Wonnum], RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at MIN 24. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 28 for 4 yards (86-M.Taylor). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 6:05GB +11% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 33-D.Cook for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:52GB +10% win prob(:52) 33-D.Cook up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Packers
Offensive plays	49	66
Total yards	324	402 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	6.1
Expected points added / play	0.39 (edge)	0.19
Success rate	53% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	31%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.80 (edge)	0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	0.11
Third downs	4/8 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	17	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Packers outgained Vikings 402–324 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

27/41, 291 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

10.2 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

11/14, 160 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

12.0 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

30 att, 163 yds, 3 TD

7.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Jamaal WilliamsRB

16 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Robert TonyanTE

5/7 for 79 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

2/3 for 63 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	15	75	7:59	Touchdown
2	MIN	MIN 27	12	78	6:14	Touchdown
3	GB	GB 28	17	76	8:54	Touchdown
4	MIN	MIN 33	14	62	6:22	Touchdown
5	GB	GB 29	2	8	0:31	End of half
6	MIN	MIN 15	12	65	5:00	Touchdown
7	GB	GB 25	7	48	2:02	Turnover on downs
8	MIN	MIN 37	5	63	2:06	Touchdown
9	GB	GB 25	12	51	6:03	Punt
10	MIN	MIN 6	6	33	3:43	Punt
11	GB	GB 36	7	32	2:51	Turnover on downs
12	MIN	MIN 32	4	7	2:28	Punt
13	GB	GB 26	10	81	3:05	Touchdown
14	MIN	MIN 22	7	16	1:55	Punt
15	GB	GB 28	5	31	0:47	Fumble

0 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	11/14	160	1	0	1	12.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	30	163	5.4	3	7.9
Alexander Mattison	3	8	2.7	0	-0.8
C.J. Ham	1	2	2.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalvin Cook	2	3	63	1	21%	7.5
Adam Thielen	3	4	27	0	29%	1.1
Justin Jefferson	3	4	26	0	29%	0.1
Irv Smith	1	1	16	0	7%	1.4
Chad Beebe	1	1	16	0	7%	2.6
Kyle Rudolph	1	1	12	0	7%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Harrison Smith	5	3	1
Eric Kendricks	4	4	0
Jeff Gladney	6	2	0
Anthony Harris	4	1	1
Eric Wilson	2	2	0
Jaleel Johnson	2	1	0
Hercules Mata'afa	2	0	0
Cameron Dantzler	2	0	0
Harrison Hand	2	0	0
Josh Metellus	1	0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	27/41	291	3	0	1	10.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamaal Williams	16	75	4.7	2.8
A.J. Dillon	5	21	4.2	0.2
Aaron Rodgers	2	9	4.5	-0.3
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	4	4.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Tonyan	5	7	79	0	18%	1.9
Davante Adams	7	11	53	3	29%	3.7
Jace Sternberger	3	4	46	0	11%	2.4
Jamaal Williams	6	6	27	0	16%	-1.0
Malik Taylor	1	1	26	0	3%	2.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	1	19	0	3%	2.3
A.J. Dillon	1	1	16	0	3%	1.7
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	3	12	0	8%	-0.6
Tyler Ervin	1	3	7	0	8%	-1.3
Darrius Shepherd	1	1	6	0	3%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Adrian Amos	6	1	0.0
Za'Darius Smith	3	3	0.0
Jaire Alexander	5	0	0.0
Kenny Clark	4	0	0.0
Tyler Lancaster	2	2	0.0
Josh Jackson	3	1	0.0
Darnell Savage	3	1	0.0
Krys Barnes	1	3	0.0
Preston Smith	3	0	0.0
Dean Lowry	3	0	1.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -5.5
Closing total: 47
MIN moneyline: +218
GB moneyline: -249

Packers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 50 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 23 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: MIN 14 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 23 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.