For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Minnesota Vikings 28 at Green Bay Packers 22. Final.
Packers -5.5 upsetO 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 8
Minnesota Vikings 28, Packers 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 9:04, 2nd and 17, on Robert Tonyan — 13.5 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:04 · 2nd and 17
Robert Tonyan
Packers
(9:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan to MIN 37 for 45 yards (41-A.Harris).
22.5 mph wind
Packers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 28–22. Biggest swing: Q3 9:04, Packers +13.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 22.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dalvin CookVikingsQ3 6:05(6:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 33-D.Cook for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.5pts
Aaron RodgersVikingsQ4 0:12(:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at MIN 45 for -4 yards (98-D.Wonnum). FUMBLES (98-D.Wonnum) [98-D.Wonnum], RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at MIN 24. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 28 for 4 yards (86-M.Taylor). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
12.9pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.80 expected points per dropback, against Packers at +0.23 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Vikings at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Packers at +0.19 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 1 giveaway.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Vikings152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(9:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan to MIN 37 for 45 yards (41-A.Harris).
Swing +13.5 for PackersExpected points +4.04 for PackersThe model had Vikings 6 points higher than the market did.play 91
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:04GB +13% win prob(9:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan to MIN 37 for 45 yards (41-A.Harris).
4th · 0:12MIN +13% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at MIN 45 for -4 yards (98-D.Wonnum). FUMBLES (98-D.Wonnum) [98-D.Wonnum], RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at MIN 24. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 28 for 4 yards (86-M.Taylor). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 6:05GB +11% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 33-D.Cook for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:52GB +10% win prob(:52) 33-D.Cook up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:46GB +10% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 12-C.Beebe pushed ob at GB 30 for 16 yards (39-C.Sullivan).
3rd · 8:07MIN +9% win prob(8:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 19-E.St. Brown (22-H.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dalvin Cook's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:05 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Vikings ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.80 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.39Vikings: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.19Packers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.80Vikings: +0.80 expected points added per play
+0.23Packers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Vikings: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.11Packers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 49 snaps at a 31% dropback rate against Packers’s 66 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Packers 3.
NotePackers outgained Vikings 402-324 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's early-down pass rate, 25.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 8 — 10.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 34.0% in week 4.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points.
GB's early-down pass rate, 61.2%, is past their previous high of 59.1% in week 6 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Packers6.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.2 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 15 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 26.4 points below their season mean of 51.4% and 1.9 times their own 13.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers sacked−12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at MIN 45 for -4 yards (98-D.Wonnum). FUMBLES (98-D.Wonnum) [98-D.Wonnum], RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at MIN 24. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 28 for 4 yards (86-M.Taylor). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 0:12 · Packers · 2nd & 10 at MIN 41 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −11.8% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 85 yards from the MIN 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
45%
Yards
726
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0778%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.3856%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1450%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.2230%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1122%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.320%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8+1.2050%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Vikings0Packers6
Vikings0Packers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 5
Vikings6Packers7
Vikings7Packers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Packers 21
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Vikings7Packers13
Vikings7Packers14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Vikings 1
Vikings13Packers14
Vikings14Packers14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Packers 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Vikings20Packers14
Vikings21Packers14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Packers 1
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Vikings27Packers14
Vikings28Packers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 37 to midfield
The period ended14 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 32
4th quarter49 plays
Punt1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 6 to the Vikings 32
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Vikings 32
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 41
Vikings28Packers20
Vikings28Packers22
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Vikings 7
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 38
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThree
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Vikings 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
