2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · New Era Field

New England Patriots

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -4 no coverO 41 ✓17 mph windBills closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:37, NE +45% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:37NE — BUF NE ball · 2nd & 10BUF 50%

(:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to BUF 14 for 5 yards (61-J.Zimmer). FUMBLES (61-J.Zimmer), RECOVERED by BUF-31-D.Marlowe at BUF 13.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:37NE +45% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to BUF 14 for 5 yards (61-J.Zimmer). FUMBLES (61-J.Zimmer), RECOVERED by BUF-31-D.Marlowe at BUF 13.
Q4 · 1:29BUF +14% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end to BUF 29 for 19 yards (21-J.Poyer).
Q4 · 9:40BUF +11% win prob(9:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:09BUF +11% win prob(3:09) 37-D.Harris left guard for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bills
Offensive plays	62	53
Total yards	351 (edge)	342
Yards per play	5.7	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.10	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	52%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	47%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08	0.34 (edge)
Third downs	5/10	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

15/25, 174 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.3 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

11/18, 154 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.1 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

16 att, 102 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

14 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

6/9 for 92 yds, 0 TD

50% of team targets · -0.0 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

6/10 for 58 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	9	28	4:21	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 22	11	78	5:10	Touchdown
3	NE	NE 25	8	16	3:59	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 20	5	18	1:30	Punt
5	NE	NE 31	8	49	4:10	Turnover on downs
6	BUF	BUF 19	7	7	3:07	Punt
7	NE	NE 23	4	6	2:13	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 22	8	47	3:52	Interception
9	NE	BUF 49	7	34	1:30	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	BUF 25	2	0	0:08	End of half
11	BUF	BUF 25	7	75	2:51	Touchdown
12	NE	NE 25	10	32	4:33	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 8	4	4	1:44	Punt
14	NE	BUF 37	6	49	2:49	Touchdown
15	BUF	NE 45	11	50	4:51	Touchdown
16	NE	NE 28	9	72	3:36	Touchdown
17	BUF	BUF 27	11	63	5:30	Turnover on downs
18	NE	NE 21	13	65	3:35	Fumble
19	BUF	BUF 13	3	0	0:31	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	15/25	174	0	0	2	3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	16	102	6.4	1	3.8
Cam Newton	9	54	6.0	1	-0.9
Rex Burkhead	6	26	4.3	0	2.0
Gunner Olszewski	1	6	6.0	0	0.3
James White	2	0	0.0	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	6	10	58	43%	3.8
Damiere Byrd	3	4	39	17%	2.6
James White	2	4	35	17%	1.6
Ryan Izzo	2	3	24	13%	0.2
Isaiah Zuber	1	1	13	4%	-0.4
Rex Burkhead	1	1	5	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jonathan Jones	4	2	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	4	1	1.0	0	0
J.C. Jackson	3	2	0.0	1	1
Devin McCourty	3	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	2	3	0.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	1	3	0.0	0	0
John Simon	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jason McCourty	3	0	0.0	0	1
Lawrence Guy	2	1	0.0	0	0
Terrence Brooks	2	0	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	11/18	154	0	1	1	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	14	86	6.1	0	3.6
Zack Moss	14	81	5.8	2	5.4
Josh Allen	10	23	2.3	1	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	6	9	92	50%	-0.0
Cole Beasley	2	2	24	11%	2.4
John Brown	1	2	21	11%	0.6
Tyler Kroft	1	1	11	6%	0.7
Devin Singletary	1	1	6	6%	-0.1
Zack Moss	0	1	0	6%	-1.1
Gabe Davis	0	2	0	11%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Jordan Poyer	11	0	0.0
Tremaine Edmunds	5	1	0.0
Dean Marlowe	5	0	0.0
Taron Johnson	4	0	0.0
Tre'Davious White	3	1	0.0
Harrison Phillips	2	1	0.0
Jerry Hughes	2	1	1.0
Tyler Matakevich	1	1	0.0
Andre Smith	2	0	0.0
Levi Wallace	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -4
Closing total: 41
NE moneyline: +175
BUF moneyline: -197

Bills closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41; the game landed 45 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: NE 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.