For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
New England Patriots 21 at Buffalo Bills 24. Final.
Bills -4 no coverO 41 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 8
Buffalo Bills 24, Patriots 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:37, 2nd and 10, on Cam Newton — 45.1 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:37 · 2nd and 10
Cam Newton
Bills
(:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to BUF 14 for 5 yards (61-J.Zimmer). FUMBLES (61-J.Zimmer), RECOVERED by BUF-31-D.Marlowe at BUF 13.
16.1 mph wind
Bills closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:37, Bills +45.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
45.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cam NewtonPatriotsQ4 9:40(9:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.4pts
Cam NewtonPatriotsQ4 1:29(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end to BUF 29 for 19 yards (21-J.Poyer).
13.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bills won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.34 expected points per carry, against Patriots at +0.08 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 7 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Patriots155 of 167 plays carry both curves
(:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to BUF 14 for 5 yards (61-J.Zimmer). FUMBLES (61-J.Zimmer), RECOVERED by BUF-31-D.Marlowe at BUF 13.
Swing +45.1 for BillsExpected points +3.70 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:37NE +45% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to BUF 14 for 5 yards (61-J.Zimmer). FUMBLES (61-J.Zimmer), RECOVERED by BUF-31-D.Marlowe at BUF 13.
4th · 1:29BUF +14% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end to BUF 29 for 19 yards (21-J.Poyer).
4th · 9:40BUF +11% win prob(9:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:09BUF +11% win prob(3:09) 37-D.Harris left guard for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:16BUF +10% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:47NE +10% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 26. 27-J.Jackson pushed ob at BUF 49 for 25 yards (75-D.Williams).
3rd · 13:07
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 28-yard field goal with 4:10 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th4:10Tyler Bass·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+321–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryBills
Patriots1–6Bills
351Total yards342
5.7Yards per play6.5
52%Success rate53%
50%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays9
20First downs21
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Bills ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Patriots: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.17Bills: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Patriots: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.06Bills: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Patriots: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.34Bills: +0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 62 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Bills’s 53 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Bills 4.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's pass rate over expected, −23.0 pts, is past their previous low of −18.5 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33 pts to 34 pts
leaned — got home · +10.6 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Bills17.2%
right on their number · +2.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.2%, 24.7 points below their season mean of 61.9% and 2.6 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton left−44% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to BUF 14 for 5 yards (61-J.Zimmer). FUMBLES (61-J.Zimmer), RECOVERED by BUF-31-D.Marlowe at BUF 13.
Q4 0:37 · Patriots · 2nd & 10 at BUF 19 · gained 5 · -3.70 EP · −44.0% win probability
153 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 78 yards from the BUF 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
45%
Yards
690
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0638%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0361%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.1812%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR13+0.1854%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR11+0.5836%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 47
Patriots0Bills6
Patriots0Bills7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Patriots 8
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 41
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 40
2nd quarter46 plays
Patriots3Bills7
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Bills 25
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Bills 36
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Patriots 36
Patriots6Bills7
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Bills 15
The period ended1 play
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Patriots6Bills13
Patriots6Bills14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 4
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 43
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 12
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Patriots12Bills14
Patriots14Bills14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Bills 22
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Patriots 14
4th quarter45 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Patriots14Bills20
Patriots14Bills21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 5 to the Patriots 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Patriots20Bills21
Patriots21Bills21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Bills 2
Patriots21Bills24
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Patriots 10
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Bills 19
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
