2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · Soldier Field

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Chicago Bears

NO -5.5 no coverO 41 ✓20 mph windSaints closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New Orleans Saints 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:00, CHI +43% win probability on one snap. Played in 20 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 4:00NO — CHI CHI ball · 4th & 14NO 82%

(4:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to NO 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 32 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 4:00CHI +43% win prob(4:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to NO 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 32 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).
OT · 6:59CHI +24% win prob(6:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to CHI 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 82-Dw.Harris to CHI 19 for no gain (52-C.Robertson).
Q4 · 0:28NO +20% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at NO 48 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan).
OT · 1:47CHI +20% win prob(1:47) 41-A.Kamara right end pushed ob at CHI 11 for 20 yards (59-D.Trevathan).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Bears
Offensive plays	71	69
Total yards	395 (edge)	329
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	38% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	61%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	2/13	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

31/41, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.2 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Nick FolesQB

28/41, 272 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.9 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

21 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

12 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

9/13 for 96 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

6/7 for 87 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	13	55	6:47	Turnover on downs
2	CHI	CHI 25	15	49	7:00	Fumble
3	NO	NO 12	10	79	5:35	Turnover on downs
4	CHI	CHI 20	5	80	2:28	Touchdown
5	NO	NO 22	5	5	1:06	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 37	4	-4	1:01	Punt
7	NO	NO 14	4	9	2:11	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 39	7	50	2:13	Turnover on downs
9	NO	NO 32	11	55	1:36	Touchdown
10	CHI	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
11	CHI	CHI 13	7	10	4:09	Punt
12	NO	CHI 16	4	7	1:32	Turnover on downs
13	CHI	CHI 31	3	5	0:45	Interception
14	NO	CHI 39	8	19	3:30	Turnover on downs
15	CHI	CHI 11	5	8	2:07	Punt
16	NO	50	4	7	1:30	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	CHI 43	5	26	2:16	Turnover on downs
18	NO	NO 36	8	64	4:14	Touchdown
19	CHI	CHI 25	13	62	6:25	Touchdown
20	NO	NO 34	5	3	1:41	Punt
21	CHI	CHI 32	12	35	1:38	Turnover on downs
22	NO	NO 35	2	0	0:13	Turnover on downs
23	NO	NO 25	9	40	3:08	Punt
24	CHI	CHI 19	7	8	3:04	Punt
25	NO	NO 32	7	52	2:12	Turnover on downs

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 80 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	31/41	280	2	0	1	8.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	12	67	5.6	-0.9
Taysom Hill	5	35	7.0	2.4
Latavius Murray	8	17	2.1	-3.2
Drew Brees	3	4	1.3	-0.9
Michael Burton	1	1	1.0	-0.1
Deonte Harty	1	-2	-2.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alvin Kamara	9	13	96	0	32%	0.5
Jared Cook	5	7	51	1	17%	5.8
Tre'Quan Smith	5	7	43	0	17%	0.6
Taysom Hill	2	2	30	1	5%	2.4
Deonte Harty	3	3	19	0	7%	3.1
Latavius Murray	3	3	14	0	7%	-0.8
Austin Carr	1	1	10	0	2%	0.4
Josh Hill	1	1	7	0	2%	0.3
Tommylee Lewis	1	1	5	0	2%	-0.4
Juwan Johnson	1	3	5	0	7%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	8	1	0.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	7	1	0.0	1	1
Malcolm Jenkins	4	3	1.0	0	2
David Onyemata	1	4	1.0	0	0
Marcus Williams	2	2	0.0	0	0
Alex Anzalone	2	2	0.0	0	0
Marcus Davenport	2	2	0.5	0	0
Demario Davis	4	0	0.0	0	0
Janoris Jenkins	4	0	0.0	0	0
P.J. Williams	4	0	0.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	28/41	272	2	1	5	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	21	89	4.2	-3.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	4	4.0	-0.3
Mitchell Trubisky	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	6	7	87	1	17%	4.3
Anthony Miller	8	11	73	0	27%	4.4
Darnell Mooney	5	6	69	1	15%	5.0
David Montgomery	2	5	16	0	12%	-0.6
Jimmy Graham	2	7	13	0	17%	-5.9
Javon Wims	1	1	9	0	2%	0.8
Cole Kmet	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.4
Ryan Nall	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	2	1	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	8	2	0.0	1
Danny Trevathan	6	3	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	6	2	0.0	1
Tashaun Gipson	6	2	0.0	0
Barkevious Mingo	6	0	0.0	0
Khalil Mack	2	3	1.0	0
Buster Skrine	4	1	0.0	0
Bilal Nichols	2	2	0.0	0
Akiem Hicks	2	1	0.0	0
Jaylon Johnson	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -5.5
Closing total: 41
NO moneyline: -229
CHI moneyline: +202

Saints closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41; the game landed 49 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 20 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: NO 7 days · CHI 6 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Matt Nagy

Wind at 20 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.