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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 26, Bears 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 4:00, 4th and 14 — 43.2 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 4:00 · 4th and 14
Unnamed on the sheet
Bears
(4:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to NO 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 32 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).
25.2 mph wind
Saints closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:00, Bears +43.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 25.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
43.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nick FolesSaintsQ4 0:28(:28) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at NO 48 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan).
20.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsOT 6:59(6:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to CHI 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 82-Dw.Harris to CHI 19 for no gain (52-C.Robertson).
24.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 15 on third down, against Saints at 2 of 13 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Bears at 4 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.08 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Saints185 of 201 plays carry both curves
(4:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to NO 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 32 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).
Swing +43.2 for BearsExpected points −0.15 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 188
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:00CHI +43% win prob(4:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to NO 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 32 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).
Overtime · 6:59CHI +24% win prob(6:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to CHI 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 82-Dw.Harris to CHI 19 for no gain (52-C.Robertson).
4th · 0:28NO +20% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at NO 48 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan).
Overtime · 1:47CHI +20% win prob(1:47) 41-A.Kamara right end pushed ob at CHI 11 for 20 yards (59-D.Trevathan).
Overtime · 5:21CHI +19% win prob(5:21) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep left to 12-A.Robinson to CHI 31 for 17 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Penalty on NO-22-C.Gardner-Johnson, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 0:38CHI +17% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 12-A.Robinson ran ob at NO 40 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 35-yard field goal with 1:40 left in overtime put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:17Wil Lutz·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–0
1st1:17Cairo Santos·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–3
2nd8:17Allen Robinson·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+73–10
2nd1:43Cairo Santos·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–13
4th3:35Darnell Mooney·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+723–20
4th0:18Cairo Santos·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+323–23
Overtime1:40Wil Lutz·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+326–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryBears
Saints8–1Bears
395Total yards329
5.6Yards per play4.8
38%Success rate36%
15%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays4
21First downs17
1Sacks taken5
0Turnovers2
The read
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Saints: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.08Bears: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Saints: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.04Bears: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Saints: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.16Bears: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 71 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Bears’s 69 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Saints 7, Bears 3.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 8Against their seasonFourth Down
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 42.9% in week 7 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 8.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.6 points.
CHI's sack or hit rate, 7.0%, is past their previous low of 10.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bears7.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 35.1 points above their season mean of 31.6% and 1.3 times their own 27.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Andrus PeatG · Every snap100%74 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%74 snaps
51Cesar RuizG · Every snap100%74 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%74 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%74 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Full-time95%70 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonWR · Full-time86%64 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation78%58 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation78%58 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation54%40 snaps
11Deonte HarrisWR · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Rotational30%22 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Rotational28%21 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Situational24%18 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Situational22%16 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational19%14 snaps
32Michael BurtonFB · Situational15%11 snaps
74James HurstG · Situational11%8 snaps
14Tommylee LewisWR · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ken CrawleyCBMalcolm RoachDTD.J. SwearingerFSDerrick KellyGNick EastonGMarquez CallawayWRMichael ThomasWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
P.O'Donnell punts+43% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to NO 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 32 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).
OT 4:00 · Bears · 4th & 14 at CHI 27 · gained nothing · -0.15 EP · +43.2% win probability
183 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 201 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 201 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 80 yards from the CHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
201 of 201 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
201
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
35%
Yards
723
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1171%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1869%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1230%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7+0.0386%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.31100%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
201 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
201 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Saints3Bears0
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bears 20
Saints3Bears3
Field goal15 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Saints 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Saints 14
2nd quarter50 plays
No good7 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Saints3Bears9
Saints3Bears10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Saints 24
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 27
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Saints 23
Saints3Bears13
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Saints 11
Saints9Bears13
Saints10Bears13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Bears 16
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 13 to the Bears 32
Saints13Bears13
Field goal4 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Bears 9
Intercepted3 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Saints16Bears13
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 20
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Bears 19
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, six linemen, one back and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs4 plays, from midfield to the Bears 41
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Saints 36
4th quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Turnover on downs3 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Saints 36
Saints22Bears13
Saints23Bears13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Bears 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Saints23Bears19
Saints23Bears20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Saints 1
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Saints23Bears23
Field goal16 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Saints 33
The period ended3 plays
Overtime30 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bears 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Bears 31
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Saints26Bears23
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Bears 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
