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Kansas City Chiefs 35, Jets 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 3:00, 4th and 8, on Sergio Castillo — 4.0 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:00 · 4th and 8
Sergio Castillo
Jets
(3:00) 6-S.Castillo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Chiefs closed -20 and covered, winning by 26.
Kansas City Chiefs 35–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:00, Jets +4.0% win probability on one snap.
4.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mecole HardmanChiefsQ1 13:41(13:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman to KC 35 for 9 yards (34-B.Poole; 46-N.Hewitt).
3.2pts
Byron PringleChiefsQ1 2:09(2:09) (Punt formation) 5-T.Townsend pass short left to 13-B.Pringle to NYJ 36 for 13 yards (35-P.Desir).
2.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.64 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.30 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Jets at 1 chunk play.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Jets158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(3:00) 6-S.Castillo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Swing −4.0 for ChiefsExpected points −1.32 for ChiefsThe model had Jets 17 points higher than the market did.play 66
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:00KC +4% win prob(3:00) 6-S.Castillo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
1st · 13:41KC +3% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman to KC 35 for 9 yards (34-B.Poole; 46-N.Hewitt).
1st · 2:09KC +3% win prob(2:09) (Punt formation) 5-T.Townsend pass short left to 13-B.Pringle to NYJ 36 for 13 yards (35-P.Desir).
2nd · 4:26NYJ +3% win prob(4:26) 21-F.Gore right end to KC 31 for 1 yard (98-T.Wharton; 55-F.Clark).
2nd · 2:24KC +2% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to NYJ 23 for 23 yards (54-A.Williamson; 34-B.Poole).
1st · 4:43KC +2% win prob(4:43) 6-S.Castillo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
2nd · 1:49
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mecole Hardman's 30-yard touchdown catch with 11:15 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:15Mecole Hardman·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
1st4:43Sergio Castillo·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+33–7
1st1:24Tyreek Hill·36-yd TD catch36-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+73–14
2nd13:08Sergio Castillo·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+36–14
2nd3:00Sergio Castillo·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+39–14
2nd1:02Travis Kelce·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+79–21
3rd2:23Demarcus Robinson·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+79–28
4th11:04Tyreek Hill·41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+79–35
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryChiefs
Jets0–9Chiefs
221Total yards496
4.0Yards per play7.4
42%Success rate49%
17%Third-down rate54%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
1Explosive plays7
12First downs24
1Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.25Jets: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.30Chiefs: +0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.30Jets: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.64Chiefs: +0.64 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Jets: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.51Chiefs: −0.51 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 67 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 7 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Chiefs14.7%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 34.4 points above their season mean of 32.3% and 1.1 times their own 31.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
71Alex LewisT · Every snap100%57 snaps
62Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%57 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Every snap100%57 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
76George FantT · Every snap100%57 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Full-time98%56 snaps
11Denzel MimsWR · Full-time96%55 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Full-time84%48 snaps
16Jeff SmithWR · Full-time84%48 snaps
89Christopher HerndonTE · Heavy rotation70%40 snaps
22La'Mical PerineRB · Rotational49%28 snaps
21Frank GoreRB · Rotational39%22 snaps
84Ryan GriffinTE · Rotational28%16 snaps
17Vyncint SmithWR · Situational23%13 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Situational16%9 snaps
25Ty JohnsonRB · Situational11%6 snaps
68Josh AndrewsG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
James MurrayCBlake CashmanILBSam FickenKJames MorganQBCameron ClarkTBreshad PerrimanWRJamison CrowderWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Townsend pass+10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:09) (Punt formation) 5-T.Townsend pass short left to 13-B.Pringle to NYJ 36 for 13 yards (35-P.Desir).
Q1 2:09 · Chiefs · 4th & 4 at NYJ 49 · gained 13 · +3.45 EP · +9.6% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 90 yards from the KC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
44%
Yards
717
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.1871%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.4456%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.4367%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4125%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Jets0Chiefs6
Jets0Chiefs7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Jets 30
Jets3Chiefs7
Field goal14 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chiefs 20
Jets3Chiefs13
Jets3Chiefs14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Jets 36
The period ended5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chiefs 48
2nd quarter47 plays
Jets6Chiefs14
Field goal5 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 32
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 46
Jets9Chiefs14
Field goal14 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Chiefs 30
Jets9Chiefs20
Jets9Chiefs21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 24 to the Jets 3
No good8 plays, from midfield to the Chiefs 29
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 21
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Chiefs 35
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 33
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Jets 14
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Jets 23
Jets9Chiefs27
Jets9Chiefs28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Jets 26
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 39
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter36 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 35
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 25
Jets9Chiefs34
Jets9Chiefs35
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Jets 41
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 31
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Jets 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -20
Closing total
49
Jets moneyline
+1204
Chiefs moneyline
-1965
Chiefs closed -20 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 49; the game landed 44 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 46°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Jets 7 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Andy Reid
KC +2% win prob
(1:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to NYJ 8 for 18 yards (32-A.Davis; 54-A.Williamson).
2nd · 1:02KC +2% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-87-T.Kelce, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
