2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium

New York Jets

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -20 ✓U 49 ✓Chiefs closed -20 and covered, winning by 26.

Kansas City Chiefs 35–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:00, KC +4% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:00NYJ — KC NYJ ball · 4th & 8KC 95%

(3:00) 6-S.Castillo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:00KC +4% win prob(3:00) 6-S.Castillo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q1 · 13:41KC +3% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman to KC 35 for 9 yards (34-B.Poole; 46-N.Hewitt).
Q1 · 2:09KC +3% win prob(2:09) (Punt formation) 5-T.Townsend pass short left to 13-B.Pringle to NYJ 36 for 13 yards (35-P.Desir).
Q2 · 4:26NYJ +3% win prob(4:26) 21-F.Gore right end to KC 31 for 1 yard (98-T.Wharton; 55-F.Clark).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Chiefs
Offensive plays	55	67
Total yards	221	496 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.25	0.30 (edge)
Success rate	42%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	0.64 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.51
Third downs	2/12	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

31/42, 416 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

27.7 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

18/30, 133 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-4.5 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Frank GoreRB

10 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

La'Mical PerineRB

8 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/12 for 109 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

4/6 for 98 yds, 2 TD

13% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 10	9	90	3:52	Touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	43	6:29	Turnover on downs
3	KC	KC 27	9	73	3:22	Touchdown
4	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	43	3:15	Turnover on downs
5	KC	KC 25	8	13	3:05	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 19	13	51	7:02	Turnover on downs
7	KC	KC 24	9	61	1:57	Touchdown
8	NYJ	50	7	21	0:58	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 17	5	4	1:05	Punt
10	KC	KC 31	4	4	0:53	Punt
11	NYJ	NYJ 26	4	7	1:29	Punt
12	KC	KC 30	10	61	4:21	Turnover on downs
13	NYJ	NYJ 14	4	9	1:36	Punt
14	KC	KC 17	7	83	3:21	Touchdown
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	17	2:00	Fumble
16	KC	NYJ 42	4	7	1:03	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	5	1:04	Punt
18	KC	KC 35	7	65	2:10	Touchdown
19	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	6	1:36	Punt
20	KC	KC 31	12	39	7:26	Turnover on downs
21	NYJ	NYJ 35	3	15	1:56	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 90 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	18/30	133	0	0	1	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	10	30	3.0	-2.7
La'Mical Perine	8	27	3.4	0.3
Sam Darnold	4	21	5.3	-0.7
Ty Johnson	3	15	5.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Denzel Mims	2	3	42	11%	2.6
Braxton Berrios	8	11	34	39%	-1.7
Jeff Smith	3	8	29	29%	-2.4
Vyncint Smith	1	1	13	4%	0.9
La'Mical Perine	2	2	6	7%	-0.6
Ty Johnson	1	1	6	4%	0.0
Christopher Herndon	1	2	3	7%	-5.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Avery Williamson	5	4	0
Neville Hewitt	4	4	0
Pierre Desir	6	1	1
Blessuan Austin	6	0	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	2	3	0
Henry Anderson	2	3	0
Brian Poole	1	3	1
Ashtyn Davis	3	1	0
Marcus Maye	2	1	0
Tarell Basham	1	2	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	31/42	416	5	27.7
Chad Henne	3/4	17	0	-1.1
Tommy Townsend	1/1	13	0	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	6	21	3.5	-1.2
Darrel Williams	3	19	6.3	0.9
Le'Veon Bell	6	7	1.2	-7.3
Darwin Thompson	4	3	0.8	-1.3
Chad Henne	1	0	0.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	8	12	109	1	26%	6.8
Tyreek Hill	4	6	98	2	13%	8.4
Mecole Hardman	7	9	96	1	19%	8.4
Demarcus Robinson	4	5	63	1	11%	3.9
Le'Veon Bell	3	3	31	0	6%	2.5
Byron Pringle	3	4	22	0	9%	1.9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	3	10	0	6%	-0.4
Darrel Williams	1	1	7	0	2%	1.4
Nick Keizer	1	2	5	0	4%	-0.6
Deon Yelder	1	1	5	0	2%	0.1
Darwin Thompson	0	1	0	0	2%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Daniel Sorensen	8	1	0.0	0
Damien Wilson	6	1	0.0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	5	0	0.0	0
Frank Clark	2	2	0.0	0
Bashaud Breeland	2	2	0.0	1
Tershawn Wharton	2	2	1.0	0
Tanoh Kpassagnon	1	2	0.0	0
Ben Niemann	1	1	0.0	0
Charvarius Ward	2	0	0.0	1
Juan Thornhill	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -20
Closing total: 49
NYJ moneyline: +1204
KC moneyline: -1965

Chiefs closed -20 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 49; the game landed 44 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NYJ 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Andy Reid