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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Pittsburgh Steelers 28 at Baltimore Ravens 24. Final.
Ravens -4 upsetO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 8
Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Ravens 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:05, 2nd and 10, on Lamar Jackson — 34.2 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:05 · 2nd and 10
Lamar Jackson
Steelers
(:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 83-W.Snead (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Ravens closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, Steelers +34.2% win probability on one snap.
34.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Lamar JacksonSteelersQ4 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to PIT 6 for 2 yards (96-I.Buggs, 39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), RECOVERED by PIT-41-R.Spillane at PIT 6.
30.3pts
Willie SneadRavensQ4 0:26(:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 83-W.Snead to PIT 23 for 32 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
25.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Steelers at 2 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 4 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Ravens at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 15 on third down, against Steelers at 3 of 9 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Steelers165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 83-W.Snead (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Swing −34.2 for RavensExpected points −2.02 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:05PIT +34% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 83-W.Snead (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
4th · 2:00PIT +30% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to PIT 6 for 2 yards (96-I.Buggs, 39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), RECOVERED by PIT-41-R.Spillane at PIT 6.
4th · 0:26BAL +25% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 83-W.Snead to PIT 23 for 32 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
4th · 15:00BAL +18% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 13-D.Duvernay to PIT 18 for 39 yards (31-J.Layne).
1st · 14:14PIT +16% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 11-J.Proche INTERCEPTED by 41-R.Spillane [90-T.Watt] at BAL 33. 41-R.Spillane for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:31PIT +14% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PIT 13 for -5 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree), touched at PIT 9, RECOVERED by PIT-98-V.Williams at PIT 4.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase Claypool's 8-yard touchdown catch with 7:32 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th7:32Chase Claypool·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+728–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Steelers3–5Ravens
221Total yards457
4.4Yards per play5.9
44%Success rate41%
33%Third-down rate53%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays10
15First downs24
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers4
The read
Ravens ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Steelers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.08Ravens: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Steelers: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.21Ravens: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Steelers: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.03Ravens: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 50 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Ravens’s 78 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens outgained Steelers 457-221 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, −23.9 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 8 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −9.1 pts in week 6.
78 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 34 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Ravens14.7%
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -23.9 pts, 13.4 points below their season mean of -10.5 pts and 1.7 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%54 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%54 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%54 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Full-time98%53 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Full-time98%53 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Full-time98%53 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Full-time85%46 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Heavy rotation76%41 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation76%41 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation76%41 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Heavy rotation57%31 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational41%22 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Rotational41%22 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Situational19%10 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Situational15%8 snaps
65Jerald HawkinsT · Situational6%3 snaps
91Stephon TuittDE · Situational2%1 snap
97Cameron HeywardDT · Situational2%1 snap
57Kameron CanadayLS · Situational2%1 snap
4Jordan BerryP · Situational2%1 snap
9Chris BoswellK · Situational2%1 snap
69Kevin DotsonG · Situational2%1 snap
60J.C. HassenauerC · Situational2%1 snap
26Anthony McFarlandRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Mike HiltonCBCarlos DavisDTUlysees GilbertILBJoshua DobbsQBJordan DangerfieldSSDerwin GrayTZach GentryTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 83-W.Snead (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q4 0:05 · Ravens · 2nd & 10 at PIT 23 · gained nothing · -2.02 EP · −35.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 80 yards from the BAL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
40%
Yards
678
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.0841%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR18+0.46100%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.3653%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0350%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.9133%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1117%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0267%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.0840%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens3 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Steelers6Ravens0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 29
Steelers7Ravens0
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Steelers7Ravens6
Steelers7Ravens7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 6
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Steelers 30
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Steelers 8
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 4 to the Steelers 18
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Steelers 41
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 33
Steelers7Ravens13
Steelers7Ravens14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Steelers 1
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 35
Steelers7Ravens17
Field goal20 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Steelers 33
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 49
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Steelers13Ravens17
Steelers14Ravens17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 18
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Ravens 33
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Steelers20Ravens17
Steelers21Ravens17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Ravens 1
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 12
The period ended3 plays, from the Ravens 47 to midfield
4th quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Steelers21Ravens23
Steelers21Ravens24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Steelers 3
Steelers27Ravens24
Steelers28Ravens24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Ravens 8
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsIn the boxFive defenders
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 8
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 6 to the Steelers 15
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Steelers 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
