2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -4 upsetO 44 ✓Ravens closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, PIT +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:05PIT — BAL BAL ball · 2nd & 10PIT 66%

(:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 83-W.Snead (39-M.Fitzpatrick).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:05PIT +34% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 83-W.Snead (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q4 · 2:00PIT +30% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to PIT 6 for 2 yards (96-I.Buggs, 39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), RECOVERED by PIT-41-R.Spillane at PIT 6.
Q4 · 0:26BAL +25% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 83-W.Snead to PIT 23 for 32 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
Q4 · 15:00BAL +18% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 13-D.Duvernay to PIT 18 for 39 yards (31-J.Layne).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Ravens
Offensive plays	50	78
Total yards	221	457 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.02 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	44% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	68%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	3/9	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Ravens outgained Steelers 457–221 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

13/28, 208 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-9.2 expected points added · -13.1% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

21/32, 182 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.4 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

J.K. DobbinsRB

15 att, 113 yds, 0 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

16 att, 87 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Willie SneadWR

5/7 for 106 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

7/8 for 67 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	4	4	0:54	Defensive touchdown
2	BAL	BAL 25	11	65	5:22	Touchdown
3	PIT	PIT 16	4	9	0:54	Fumble
4	BAL	PIT 44	5	35	2:27	Fumble
5	PIT	PIT 4	6	14	3:08	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 48	6	6	2:24	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 15	6	18	2:09	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 20	10	80	5:18	Touchdown
9	PIT	PIT 25	9	23	3:40	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 8	15	64	3:44	Turnover on downs
11	PIT	PIT 25	6	24	0:51	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 17	1	0	0:05	Interception
13	PIT	BAL 21	3	21	0:43	Touchdown
14	BAL	BAL 27	5	6	1:33	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 23	11	57	6:10	Touchdown
16	BAL	BAL 25	8	25	3:13	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 11	4	1	1:31	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 47	9	63	3:58	Touchdown
19	PIT	PIT 20	10	45	4:27	Touchdown
20	BAL	BAL 25	11	69	5:32	Fumble
21	PIT	PIT 6	4	9	1:05	Punt
22	BAL	BAL 37	6	40	0:52	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	21/32	182	2	0	2	5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	15	47	3.1	1	-0.6
Anthony McFarland	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	7	8	67	0	25%	5.9
Eric Ebron	4	5	48	1	16%	5.2
Chase Claypool	5	9	42	1	28%	-3.4
James Conner	3	3	13	0	9%	-0.8
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	6	0	3%	1.7
Diontae Johnson	1	3	6	0	9%	-2.1
Jaylen Samuels	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.7
James Washington	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Robert Spillane	9	1	0.0	1	2
Stephon Tuitt	8	1	2.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	3	0.0	0	1
Joe Haden	6	1	0.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	3	2	1.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	4	1	0.0	0	0
Vince Williams	2	3	0.0	0	0
Bud Dupree	4	0	1.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	4	0	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Buggs	2	2	0.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	13/28	208	2	2	4	-9.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	15	113	7.5	0	3.6
Gus Edwards	16	87	5.4	1	0.6
Lamar Jackson	16	65	4.1	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Willie Snead	5	7	106	0	27%	6.5
Devin Duvernay	1	3	39	0	12%	3.1
Mark Andrews	3	6	32	0	23%	-3.9
Miles Boykin	2	3	20	1	12%	3.3
J.K. Dobbins	1	2	8	0	8%	-1.4
Marquise Brown	1	2	3	1	8%	1.3
Gus Edwards	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8
Nick Boyle	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.0
James Proche	0	1	0	0	4%	-7.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
DeShon Elliott	4	3	0.5	0
Marcus Peters	3	2	0.0	1
Marlon Humphrey	2	2	0.0	0
Patrick Queen	3	1	0.0	0
Terrell Bonds	3	0	0.0	0
Malik Harrison	1	2	0.0	0
Jimmy Smith	3	0	0.0	0
Brandon Williams	1	2	0.0	0
Chuck Clark	2	0	0.0	0
Chris Board	1	1	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -4
Closing total: 44
PIT moneyline: +178
BAL moneyline: -200

Ravens closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 52 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: PIT 7 days · BAL 14 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.