2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · CenturyLink Field

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle SeahawksWinner

SEA -1 ✓O 54.5 ✓Seahawks closed -1 and covered, winning by 10.

Seattle Seahawks 37–27. Biggest swing: Q1 4:13, SF +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:13SF — SEA SF ball · 3rd & 5SF 63%

(4:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Reed at SEA 13. 29-D.Reed to SEA 14 for 1 yard (28-J.McKinnon).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:13SF +14% win prob(4:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Reed at SEA 13. 29-D.Reed to SEA 14 for 1 yard (28-J.McKinnon).
Q1 · 0:08SEA +13% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 4:59SEA +11% win prob(4:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at SF 12 for 35 yards (41-E.Moseley).
Q3 · 13:44SF +7% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 22 for -9 yards (54-B.Wagner).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Seahawks
Offensive plays	66	64
Total yards	352	353 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.20	0.27 (edge)
Success rate	50% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	70%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24	0.45 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	6/13	9/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	23	23
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

27/37, 261 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

16.5 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

18/25, 238 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

17.4 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

DeeJay DallasRB

18 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jamycal HastyRB

12 att, 29 yds, 1 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

12/15 for 161 yds, 2 TD

42% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

8/10 for 91 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	5	-4	1:45	Punt
2	SF	SF 35	6	25	2:53	Punt
3	SEA	SEA 1	7	14	3:13	Punt
4	SF	SEA 49	7	29	3:03	Interception
5	SEA	SEA 14	8	86	4:06	Touchdown
6	SF	SF 25	16	55	8:01	Touchdown
7	SEA	SEA 19	10	76	3:55	Touchdown
8	SF	SF 18	8	4	1:52	Punt
9	SEA	SEA 32	4	0	0:23	Punt
10	SF	SF 3	2	4	0:49	End of half
11	SF	SF 25	5	-8	1:57	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 37	10	53	5:01	Touchdown
13	SF	—	1	0	0:04	Fumble
14	SEA	SF 21	7	21	2:07	Touchdown
15	SF	SF 25	5	4	2:05	Punt
16	SEA	SEA 24	9	46	4:39	Turnover on downs
17	SF	SF 21	13	78	4:31	Touchdown
18	SEA	SEA 26	8	26	3:14	Punt
19	SF	SF 20	7	80	2:06	Touchdown
20	SEA	SF 47	10	35	0:43	Touchdown
21	SF	SF 19	11	81	1:41	Touchdown
22	SEA	SF 42	4	0	1:52	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 86 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	18/25	238	2	0	0	17.4
Jimmy Garoppolo	11/16	84	0	1	3	-5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jamycal Hasty	12	29	2.4	1	1.7
Tevin Coleman	3	20	6.7	0	1.6
Jimmy Garoppolo	4	4	1.0	0	0.0
Jerick McKinnon	3	-1	-0.3	1	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	8	10	91	1	25%	8.6
Kendrick Bourne	8	10	81	0	25%	6.4
Jerick McKinnon	4	4	40	0	10%	1.4
George Kittle	2	4	39	0	10%	-1.0
Trent Taylor	3	5	32	0	13%	0.5
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	21	0	5%	1.5
Ross Dwelley	1	4	16	1	10%	0.9
Jamycal Hasty	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Emmanuel Moseley	7	3	0.0	1
Dre Greenlaw	7	1	0.0	0
Jason Verrett	5	2	0.0	0
Jimmie Ward	5	1	0.0	0
Marcell Harris	1	4	0.0	1
Arik Armstead	4	1	0.0	0
D.J. Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Fred Warner	2	1	0.0	0
Kerry Hyder	2	1	1.0	0
K'Waun Williams	2	0	1.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	27/37	261	4	0	2	16.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
DeeJay Dallas	18	41	2.3	1	-3.2
David Moore	2	28	14.0	0	1.9
Russell Wilson	6	23	3.8	0	1.1
Nick Bellore	1	5	5.0	0	-0.7
Travis Homer	1	4	4.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	12	15	161	2	42%	9.8
Tyler Lockett	4	5	33	0	14%	3.4
David Moore	3	3	18	1	8%	4.1
DeeJay Dallas	5	5	17	1	14%	0.9
Will Dissly	1	1	17	0	3%	1.6
Nick Bellore	1	1	9	0	3%	2.0
Jacob Hollister	1	2	6	0	6%	-0.2
Greg Olsen	0	4	0	0	11%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	6	5	2.0	0	0
D.J. Reed	6	0	0.0	1	2
K.J. Wright	3	3	0.0	0	1
Quandre Diggs	3	3	0.0	0	0
Ryan Neal	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tre Flowers	4	0	0.0	0	1
Jordyn Brooks	1	3	0.0	0	0
Quinton Dunbar	4	0	0.0	0	1
Poona Ford	2	1	0.0	0	0
Alton Robinson	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -1
Closing total: 54.5
SF moneyline: -100
SEA moneyline: -110

Seahawks closed -1 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 64 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: SF 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.