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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · CenturyLink Field
Final
49ersSan Francisco27
BY 10final margin
SeahawksSeattle37
San Francisco 49ers 27 at Seattle Seahawks 37. Final.
Seahawks -1 ✓O 54.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 8
Seattle Seahawks 37, 49ers 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 4:13, 3rd and 5, on D.J. Reed — 13.8 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:13 · 3rd and 5
D.J. Reed
Seahawks
(4:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Reed at SEA 13. 29-D.Reed to SEA 14 for 1 yard (28-J.McKinnon).
Seahawks closed -1 and covered, winning by 10.
Seattle Seahawks 37–27. Biggest swing: Q1 4:13, Seahawks +13.8% win probability on one snap.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DK MetcalfSeahawksQ1 0:08(:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.3pts
DK MetcalfSeahawksQ2 4:59(4:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at SF 12 for 35 yards (41-E.Moseley).
10.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against 49ers at 6 of 13 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at +0.24 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on 49ers173 of 183 plays carry both curves
(4:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Reed at SEA 13. 29-D.Reed to SEA 14 for 1 yard (28-J.McKinnon).
Swing +13.8 for SeahawksExpected points +4.18 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 4 points higher than the market did.play 28
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:13SF +14% win prob(4:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Reed at SEA 13. 29-D.Reed to SEA 14 for 1 yard (28-J.McKinnon).
1st · 0:08SEA +13% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:59SEA +11% win prob(4:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at SF 12 for 35 yards (41-E.Moseley).
3rd · 13:44SF +7% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 22 for -9 yards (54-B.Wagner).
2nd · 11:30SEA +7% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 38-J.Hasty right guard to SEA 23 for 4 yards (54-B.Wagner).
2nd · 1:00SEA +6% win prob(1:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to SF 3, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-34-L.Stephens.
1st · 14:24
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DK Metcalf's 2-yard touchdown catch with 3:08 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st0:08DK Metcalf·46-yd TD catch46-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · kick no good, wide right+60–6
4th1:55Brandon Aiyuk·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+727–37
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categorySeahawks
49ers1–5Seahawks
352Total yards353
5.3Yards per play5.5
50%Success rate45%
46%Third-down rate64%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays5
23First downs23
3Sacks taken2
3Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.2049ers: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.27Seahawks: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.2449ers: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.45Seahawks: +0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.0949ers: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.03Seahawks: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 66 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 64 at 63%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Seahawks 5.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's early-down pass rate turned over: 38.9% in week 7 against 68.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
SEA's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 7 against 17.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Seahawks17.4%
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 68.0%, 13.3 points above their season mean of 54.7% and 1.3 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillG · Every snap100%70 snaps
50Hroniss GrasuC · Every snap100%70 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time90%63 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Full-time86%60 snaps
85George KittleTE · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
15Trent TaylorWR · Heavy rotation50%35 snaps
28Jerick McKinnonRB · Heavy rotation50%35 snaps
38Jamycal HastyRB · Rotational41%29 snaps
4Nick MullensQB · Rotational41%29 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Rotational39%27 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Situational9%6 snaps
26Tevin ColemanRB · Situational9%6 snaps
18Dante PettisWR · Situational4%3 snaps
67Justin SkuleT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Ken WebsterCBKwon AlexanderOLBC.J. BeathardQBJaquiski TarttSSRichie JamesWRDeebo SamuelWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:08 · Seahawks · 2nd & 6 at SF 46 · gained 46 · +4.38 EP · +13.8% win probability
171 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 86 yards from the SEA 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
45%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1094%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0769%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR32+0.4753%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.2331%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.4244%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0663%
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Seahawks 37
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 1 to the Seahawks 13
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Seahawks 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
49ers0Seahawks6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the 49ers 46
2nd quarter47 plays
49ers6Seahawks6
49ers7Seahawks6
Touchdown18 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 1
49ers7Seahawks12
49ers7Seahawks13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the 49ers 1
Punt11 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the 49ers 33
Punt4 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the 49ers 3 to the 49ers 7
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 31
49ers7Seahawks19
49ers7Seahawks20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the 49ers 2
Fumble lost1 play
49ers7Seahawks26
49ers7Seahawks27
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 6
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 33
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the 49ers 35
4th quarter64 plays
49ers7Seahawks30
Field goal3 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 30
49ers13Seahawks30
49ers14Seahawks30
Touchdown17 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the Seahawks 1
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the 49ers 48
49ers20Seahawks30
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Seahawks 16
49ers20Seahawks36
49ers20Seahawks37
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the 49ers 1
49ers26Seahawks37
49ers27Seahawks37
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the Seahawks 3
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
