2020 Week 8 · Mon, Nov 2, 2020 · MetLife Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

New York Giants

TB -13 no coverO 47 ✓Buccaneers closed -13, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 12:12, TB +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:12TB — NYG NYG ball · 2nd & 5NYG 59%

(12:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting [58-S.Barrett] at TB 34. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting to TB 34 for no gain (15-G.Tate).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:12TB +28% win prob(12:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting [58-S.Barrett] at TB 34. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting to TB 34 for no gain (15-G.Tate).
Q3 · 14:12TB +14% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 87-S.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis [58-S.Barrett] at TB 39. 24-C.Davis to TB 42 for 3 yards (87-S.Shepard).
Q4 · 9:07NYG +11% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:15NYG +11% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 33-D.Lewis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Giants
Offensive plays	66	69
Total yards	345	358 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	44% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	65%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Giants outgained Buccaneers 358–345 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

28/40, 279 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.7 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

25/41, 256 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-0.5 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

15 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Wayne GallmanRB

12 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Sterling ShepardWR

8/10 for 74 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Evan EngramTE

5/10 for 61 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	12	57	5:19	Turnover on downs
2	NYG	NYG 25	10	37	4:03	Punt
3	TB	TB 10	2	5	0:44	Fumble
4	NYG	TB 12	4	7	0:44	Touchdown
5	TB	TB 31	7	21	2:11	Punt
6	NYG	NYG 4	13	50	6:27	Punt
7	TB	TB 8	12	31	5:33	Punt
8	NYG	NYG 23	11	77	3:13	Touchdown
9	TB	TB 25	9	53	1:39	Turnover on downs
10	NYG	NYG 25	2	0	0:07	End of half
11	NYG	NYG 44	3	2	0:57	Interception
12	TB	TB 42	10	34	4:03	Turnover on downs
13	NYG	NYG 25	5	7	1:24	Punt
14	TB	TB 33	6	53	2:36	Touchdown
15	NYG	NYG 29	11	76	5:45	Turnover on downs
16	TB	TB 32	5	-8	1:17	Punt
17	NYG	NYG 43	5	23	1:52	Interception
18	TB	TB 34	7	67	3:04	Touchdown
19	NYG	NYG 25	5	4	2:05	Punt
20	TB	TB 33	8	32	3:16	Turnover on downs
21	NYG	NYG 30	15	75	3:13	Touchdown
22	TB	NYG 44	2	0	0:28	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 77 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	28/40	279	2	0	2	9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Leonard Fournette	15	52	3.5	-3.1
Ronald Jones	7	23	3.3	-1.3
Scott Miller	1	7	7.0	0.6
Tom Brady	1	-1	-1.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	5	7	55	1	18%	3.1
Rob Gronkowski	4	4	41	1	10%	3.7
Jaydon Mickens	5	8	36	0	20%	3.6
Scott Miller	3	6	35	0	15%	0.4
Cameron Brate	2	2	35	0	5%	3.6
Tyler Johnson	2	2	35	0	5%	2.4
Ronald Jones	4	4	23	0	10%	-3.6
Leonard Fournette	3	6	19	0	15%	-2.2
Tanner Hudson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Whitehead	4	3	0.0	0	0
Devin White	5	2	1.0	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	5	2	1.0	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	3	3	0.0	1	1
Jamel Dean	5	1	0.0	0	0
Antoine Winfield	5	1	0.0	0	0
Lavonte David	2	2	0.0	0	1
Shaquil Barrett	2	1	0.0	0	1
Carlton Davis	2	1	0.0	1	2
Mike Edwards	1	1	0.0	0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	25/41	256	2	2	3	-0.5
Golden Tate	1/1	18	0	0	0	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Wayne Gallman	12	44	3.7	1	-0.3
Alfred Morris	8	28	3.5	0	-1.8
Daniel Jones	3	20	6.7	0	1.5
Evan Engram	1	9	9.0	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sterling Shepard	8	10	74	0	24%	-0.6
Evan Engram	5	10	61	0	24%	2.0
Darius Slayton	5	9	56	0	22%	2.4
Golden Tate	2	3	31	1	7%	0.3
Wayne Gallman	1	1	18	0	2%	2.6
Elijhaa Penny	1	1	11	0	2%	1.0
Levine Toilolo	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.5
Dion Lewis	2	3	8	1	7%	0.4
Kaden Smith	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jabrill Peppers	7	1	0.0	2
Isaac Yiadom	4	4	0.0	1
Blake Martinez	4	3	0.0	0
B.J. Hill	1	3	0.0	0
Darnay Holmes	4	0	0.0	0
Leonard Williams	1	3	1.0	0
Julian Love	2	1	0.0	0
Dexter Lawrence	1	2	0.0	0
Logan Ryan	3	0	0.0	0
David Mayo	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -13
Closing total: 47
TB moneyline: -598
NYG moneyline: +470

Buccaneers closed -13, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47; the game landed 48 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 39°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: TB 8 days · NYG 11 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Joe Judge