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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 at New York Giants 23. Final.
Buccaneers -13 no coverO 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25, Giants 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 12:12, 2nd and 5, on Sean Murphy-Bunting — 27.5 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:12 · 2nd and 5
Sean Murphy-Bunting
Buccaneers
(12:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting [58-S.Barrett] at TB 34. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting to TB 34 for no gain (15-G.Tate).
Buccaneers closed -13, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 12:12, Buccaneers +27.5% win probability on one snap.
27.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Carlton DavisBuccaneersQ3 14:12(14:12) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 87-S.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis [58-S.Barrett] at TB 39. 24-C.Davis to TB 42 for 3 yards (87-S.Shepard).
14.1pts
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ4 9:07(9:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Buccaneers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 4 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 28.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 47 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Buccaneers175 of 188 plays carry both curves
(12:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting [58-S.Barrett] at TB 34. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting to TB 34 for no gain (15-G.Tate).
Swing −27.5 for GiantsExpected points −4.86 for GiantsThe model had Giants 18 points higher than the market did.play 142
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:12TB +28% win prob(12:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting [58-S.Barrett] at TB 34. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting to TB 34 for no gain (15-G.Tate).
3rd · 14:12TB +14% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 87-S.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis [58-S.Barrett] at TB 39. 24-C.Davis to TB 42 for 3 yards (87-S.Shepard).
4th · 9:07NYG +11% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:15NYG +11% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 33-D.Lewis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:55TB +11% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 24 for -8 yards (49-C.Coughlin).
4th · 13:10NYG +10% win prob(13:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 15-G.Tate to TB 39 for 12 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting). Penalty on TB-24-C.Davis, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Evans's 8-yard touchdown catch with 9:07 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:46Ryan Succop·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+33–0
1st4:15Dion Lewis·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+73–7
2nd0:11Ryan Succop·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+36–14
3rd10:05Ryan Succop·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+39–14
3rd6:05Rob Gronkowski·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady · two-point no good+615–14
3rd0:19Graham Gano·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+315–17
4th9:07Mike Evans·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+722–17
4th3:44Ryan Succop·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+325–17
4th0:33Golden Tate·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones · two-point no good+625–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryGiants
Buccaneers4–5Giants
345Total yards358
5.2Yards per play5.2
44%Success rate43%
33%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays5
22First downs24
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Giants ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Buccaneers: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.03Giants: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Buccaneers: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.07Giants: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Buccaneers: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.05Giants: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 66 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Giants’s 69 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Giants 4.
NoteGiants outgained Buccaneers 358-345 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's sack or hit rate, 9.3%, is past their previous low of 11.4% in week 5 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Giants9.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.5 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 9.3%, 6.5 points below their season mean of 15.8% and 1.0 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass−21% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting [58-S.Barrett] at TB 34. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting to TB 34 for no gain (15-G.Tate).
Q4 12:12 · Giants · 2nd & 5 at TB 34 · gained nothing · -4.86 EP · −20.8% win probability
173 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 77 yards from the NYG 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1469%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1565%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.4355%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR14+0.1686%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.0536%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.1480%
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Buccaneers3Giants0
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Giants 18
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Buccaneers 48
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 12
Buccaneers3Giants6
Buccaneers3Giants7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Buccaneers 7
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Giants 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 4 to the Giants 18
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Buccaneers 30
Punt12 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Buccaneers 47
Buccaneers3Giants13
Buccaneers3Giants14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Buccaneers 2
Buccaneers6Giants14
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Giants 22
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Giants 46
Buccaneers9Giants14
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Giants 24
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 32
Buccaneers15Giants14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Giants 3
Buccaneers15Giants17
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Buccaneers 15
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Buccaneers 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Buccaneers21Giants17
Buccaneers22Giants17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Giants 8
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 29
Buccaneers25Giants17
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Giants 20
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Buccaneers25Giants23
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Buccaneers 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -13
Closing total
47
Buccaneers moneyline
-598
Giants moneyline
+470
Buccaneers closed -13, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47; the game landed 48 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Buccaneers 8 days · Giants 11 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Joe Judge
4th · 0:28TB +10% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-D.Jones pass to 33-D.Lewis is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 9:42NYG +8% win prob(9:42) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 84-C.Brate pushed ob at NYG 17 for 25 yards (27-I.Yiadom). PENALTY on NYG-27-I.Yiadom, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 9 yards, enforced at NYG 17.
Buccaneerscategory by categoryGiants
Buccaneers3
Giants0
