2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

TEN -7.5 upsetO 49.5 ✓24 mph windTitans closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 31–20. Biggest swing: Q1 5:16, TEN +18% win probability on one snap. Played in 24 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:16TEN — CIN TEN ball · 1st & 8TEN 84%

(5:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III at CIN -4. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:16TEN +18% win prob(5:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III at CIN -4. Touchback.
Q2 · 2:36CIN +12% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 85-T.Higgins to TEN 21 for 22 yards (37-A.Hooker; 35-C.Jackson).
Q1 · 10:56CIN +9% win prob(10:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to TEN 17 for 24 yards (33-J.Joseph).
Q3 · 12:28TEN +8% win prob(12:28) 22-D.Henry up the middle to CIN 23 for 3 yards (58-C.Lawson). PENALTY on TEN-60-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 26 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Bengals
Offensive plays	61	69
Total yards	441 (edge)	367
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.24	0.27 (edge)
Success rate	59% (edge)	51%
Dropback rate	56%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06	0.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.46 (edge)	0.03
Third downs	5/9	10/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Titans outgained Bengals 441–367 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

26/37, 249 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

18.2 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

18/30, 233 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.2 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

18 att, 112 yds, 1 TD

8.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Giovani BernardRB

15 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

8/10 for 128 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

6/9 for 78 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 28	13	62	5:12	Turnover on downs
2	TEN	TEN 31	9	61	4:41	Interception
3	CIN	CIN 20	5	12	1:56	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 22	8	43	2:46	Turnover on downs
5	CIN	CIN 43	10	40	4:59	Touchdown
6	TEN	TEN 25	12	60	4:22	Touchdown
7	CIN	CIN 27	11	63	5:32	Touchdown
8	TEN	TEN 25	7	36	0:32	End of half
9	TEN	TEN 20	8	54	3:49	Punt
10	CIN	CIN 20	7	30	3:11	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 11	8	34	3:28	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 14	13	76	5:37	Touchdown
13	TEN	TEN 25	11	75	2:35	Touchdown
14	CIN	TEN 44	9	44	3:50	Touchdown
15	TEN	TEN 25	8	70	1:34	Touchdown
16	CIN	CIN 10	13	40	5:40	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 2	1	8	0:16	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 76 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	18/30	233	2	1	1	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	18	112	6.2	1	8.9
Jeremy McNichols	4	49	12.3	0	1.9
D'Onta Foreman	5	37	7.4	0	1.6
Ryan Tannehill	2	20	10.0	0	2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	8	10	128	1	34%	9.3
Anthony Firkser	2	3	36	0	10%	2.0
Jonnu Smith	2	2	29	0	7%	2.3
A.J. Brown	4	7	24	1	24%	-6.8
Kalif Raymond	1	1	11	0	3%	-0.2
Khari Blasingame	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.2
Derrick Henry	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Jeremy McNichols	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
MyCole Pruitt	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0
Adam Humphries	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jayon Brown	7	5	0
Johnathan Joseph	7	2	1
Malcolm Butler	4	4	1
Kevin Byard	4	3	1
Rashaan Evans	3	4	0
Chris Jackson	3	3	0
Harold Landry	2	2	1
Jeffery Simmons	2	2	0
Kenny Vaccaro	3	1	0
Breon Borders	2	1	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	26/37	249	2	0	0	18.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Giovani Bernard	15	62	4.1	1	1.5
Samaje Perine	10	32	3.2	1	-0.5
Joe Burrow	3	9	3.0	0	-0.9
Tyler Boyd	2	9	4.5	0	0.1
Tee Higgins	2	6	3.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	6	9	78	0	26%	5.5
Tyler Boyd	6	7	67	1	20%	8.3
Auden Tate	7	7	65	0	20%	6.3
A.J. Green	2	5	19	0	14%	-1.5
Giovani Bernard	3	4	16	1	11%	1.3
Samaje Perine	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.7
Cethan Carter	1	1	2	0	3%	0.6
Drew Sample	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jessie Bates	9	2	0.0	1	2
LeShaun Sims	6	0	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	2	3	0.0	0	1
Germaine Pratt	2	3	0.0	0	0
Josh Bynes	2	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Covington	3	2	0.0	0	0
Mackensie Alexander	3	0	0.0	0	0
Xavier Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0
William Jackson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -7.5
Closing total: 49.5
TEN moneyline: -321
CIN moneyline: +274

Titans closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 51 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 24 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: TEN 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Zac Taylor

Wind at 24 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.