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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee20
BY 11final margin
BengalsCincinnati31
Tennessee Titans 20 at Cincinnati Bengals 31. Final.
Titans -7.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 8
Cincinnati Bengals 31, Titans 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:16, 1st and 8, on J.Bates — 17.8 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:16 · 1st and 8
J.Bates
Bengals
(5:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III at CIN -4. Touchback.
O 49.5 ✓
17.8 mph wind
Titans closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cincinnati Bengals 31–20. Biggest swing: Q1 5:16, Bengals +17.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tee HigginsBengalsQ1 10:56(10:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to TEN 17 for 24 yards (33-J.Joseph).
9.1pts
Tee HigginsBengalsQ2 2:36(2:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 85-T.Higgins to TEN 21 for 22 yards (37-A.Hooker; 35-C.Jackson).
12.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Bengals at 5 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.46 expected points per carry, against Bengals at +0.03 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Titans at +0.06 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 51% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Titans167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(5:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III at CIN -4. Touchback.
Swing +17.8 for BengalsExpected points +6.28 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 28 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:16TEN +18% win prob(5:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III at CIN -4. Touchback.
2nd · 2:36CIN +12% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 85-T.Higgins to TEN 21 for 22 yards (37-A.Hooker; 35-C.Jackson).
1st · 10:56CIN +9% win prob(10:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to TEN 17 for 24 yards (33-J.Joseph).
3rd · 12:28TEN +8% win prob(12:28) 22-D.Henry up the middle to CIN 23 for 3 yards (58-C.Lawson). PENALTY on TEN-60-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 26 - No Play.
2nd · 13:34CIN +8% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 19-A.Tate to TEN 34 for 8 yards (31-K.Byard; 33-J.Joseph).
3rd · 5:19TEN +7% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at 50 for -10 yards (55-L.Wilson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Randy Bullock's 33-yard field goal with 9:52 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:52Randy Bullock·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.HarrisLead never changed again+30–3
4th14:00Tyler Boyd·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+77–24
4th11:28A.J. Brown·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+714–24
4th7:35Giovani Bernard·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+714–31
4th6:01Corey Davis·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill · two-point no good+620–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryBengals
Titans5–4Bengals
441Total yards367
7.2Yards per play5.3
59%Success rate51%
56%Third-down rate67%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
11Explosive plays5
26First downs23
1Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Titans ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Titans: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.27Bengals: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Titans: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.46Bengals: +0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.46Titans: +0.46 expected points added per play
+0.03Bengals: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 61 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Bengals’s 69 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Bengals 5.
NoteTitans outgained Bengals 441-367 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bengals14.7%
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was CIN's pass rate over expected, 8.2 pts against a season mean of -0.6 pts — and CIN swings 11.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
70Ty SambrailoT · Every snap100%63 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Dennis KellyT · Every snap100%63 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Full-time98%62 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Full-time98%62 snaps
76Rodger SaffoldG · Full-time97%61 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time94%59 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation79%50 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Heavy rotation78%49 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation52%33 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational41%26 snaps
14Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational38%24 snaps
28Jeremy McNicholsRB · Rotational35%22 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational27%17 snaps
10Adam HumphriesWR · Situational19%12 snaps
41Khari BlasingameFB · Situational17%11 snaps
45D'Onta ForemanRB · Situational10%6 snaps
75Jamil DouglasG · Situational5%3 snaps
15Nick WestbrookWR · Situational3%2 snaps
94Jack CrawfordDT · Situational2%1 snap
3Stephen GostkowskiK · Situational2%1 snap
6Brett KernP · Situational2%1 snap
48Beau BrinkleyLS · Situational2%1 snap
72David QuessenberryG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Daniel MunyerCTye SmithCBMatt DickersonDTDerick RobersonOLBDane CruikshankSSIsaiah WilsonTGeoff SwaimTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass−20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III at CIN -4. Touchback.
Q1 5:16 · Titans · 1st & goal at CIN 8 · gained nothing · -6.28 EP · −19.8% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 86 yards from the CIN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
50%
Yards
808
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.3558%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.3250%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3771%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.3438%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.440%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Titans0Bengals3
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Titans 15
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.6 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Bengals 8
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 37
No good8 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Bengals 35
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Titans0Bengals9
Titans0Bengals10
Touchdown11 plays, from midfield to the Titans 1
Titans6Bengals10
Titans7Bengals10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bengals 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.1 seconds
Titans7Bengals16
Titans7Bengals17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Titans 12
The period ended10 plays, from the Titans 25 to midfield
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Bengals 26
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 20 to midfield
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Bengals 40
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Titans 40
4th quarter55 plays
Titans7Bengals23
Titans7Bengals24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 7
Titans13Bengals24
Titans14Bengals24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bengals 9
Titans14Bengals30
Titans14Bengals31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Titans 5
Titans20Bengals31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bengals 12
Punt19 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Titans 44
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -7.5
Closing total
49.5
Titans moneyline
-321
Bengals moneyline
+274
Titans closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 51 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 50°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Titans 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Zac Taylor
NoteWind at 17.8 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 11:28
CIN +7% win prob
(11:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:36CIN +7% win prob(10:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.Higgins (33-J.Joseph). PENALTY on TEN-33-J.Joseph, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TEN 23 - No Play.
