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2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore24
BY 14final margin
ColtsIndianapolis10
Baltimore Ravens 24 at Indianapolis Colts 10. Final.
Colts -1 upsetU 48 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 9
Baltimore Ravens 24, Colts 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 11:12, 1st and 3 — 25.4 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:12 · 1st and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Colts
(11:12) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards to IND 6 for -3 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 7. 53-D.Leonard to IND 10 for 3 yards (35-G.Edwards). FUMBLES (35-G.Edwards), recovered by IND-58-B.Okereke at IND 12. 58-B.Okereke to IND 23 for 11 yards (15-M.Brown).
Dome
Colts closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Baltimore Ravens 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 11:12, Colts +25.4% win probability on one snap.
25.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jonathan TaylorRavensQ1 1:28(1:28) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to BAL 36 for 9 yards (40-M.Harrison, 24-M.Peters). FUMBLES (24-M.Peters), RECOVERED by BAL-36-C.Clark at BAL 35. 36-C.Clark for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
23.1pts
J.K. DobbinsRavensQ3 0:34(:34) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right end to IND 39 for 4 yards (37-K.Willis).
10.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Ravens at 2 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.37 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Ravens160 of 172 plays carry both curves
(11:12) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards to IND 6 for -3 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 7. 53-D.Leonard to IND 10 for 3 yards (35-G.Edwards). FUMBLES (35-G.Edwards), recovered by
Swing +25.4 for ColtsExpected points +7.37 for ColtsThe model had Colts 5 points higher than the market did.play 96
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:12BAL +25% win prob(11:12) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards to IND 6 for -3 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 7. 53-D.Leonard to IND 10 for 3 yards (35-G.Edwards). FUMBLES (35-G.Edwards), recovered by IND-58-B.Okereke at IND 12. 58-B.Okereke to IND 23 for 11 yards (15-M.Brown).
1st · 1:28BAL +23% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to BAL 36 for 9 yards (40-M.Harrison, 24-M.Peters). FUMBLES (24-M.Peters), RECOVERED by BAL-36-C.Clark at BAL 35. 36-C.Clark for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:34IND +10% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right end to IND 39 for 4 yards (37-K.Willis).
3rd · 10:31IND +9% win prob(10:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 15-M.Brown to IND 31 for 20 yards (53-D.Leonard).
4th · 5:34BAL +8% win prob(5:34) 63-D.Pinter reported in as eligible. 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 80-T.Burton (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon].
2nd · 4:42IND +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gus Edwards's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:47 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th2:13Justin Tucker·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+324–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryColts
Ravens4–4Colts
266Total yards339
4.2Yards per play5.4
49%Success rate35%
38%Third-down rate18%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays7
18First downs18
2Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Colts, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Ravens: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.37Colts: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Ravens: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.34Colts: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Ravens: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.44Colts: −0.44 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 63 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Colts’s 63 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Colts 3.
NoteColts outgained Ravens 339-266 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's pass rate over expected turned over: −23.9 pts in week 8 against −3.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 8 against 20.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.8 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Colts6.9%
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 12.8 points below their season mean of 17.6% and 1.4 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Edwards to−25% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:12) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards to IND 6 for -3 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 7. 53-D.Leonard to IND 10 for 3 yards (35-G.Edwards). FUMBLES (35-G.Edwards), recovered by IND-58-B.Okereke at IND 12. 58-B.Okereke to IND 23 for 11 yards (15-M.Brown).
Q3 11:12 · Ravens · 1st & goal at IND 3 · lost 4 · -7.37 EP · −25.3% win probability
158 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 75 yards from the BAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
39%
Yards
605
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.4073%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.0750%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2136%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3350%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.0527%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Colts0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 41
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 27
Ravens0Colts6
Ravens0Colts7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Ravens 1
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 39
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Ravens6Colts7
Touchdown2 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Ravens 45
Ravens7Colts7
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 43
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Ravens 41
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 38
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 27
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Colts 35
Ravens7Colts10
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 7 to the Ravens 25
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Ravens 14
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Ravens 49
3rd quarter35 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Colts 3
Intercepted1 play
Drive ended5 plays, from the Ravens 46 to the Colts 15
Ravens13Colts10
Ravens14Colts10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 6 to the Colts 1
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 28
The period ended9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Colts 43
4th quarter50 plays
Ravens20Colts10
Ravens21Colts10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 39 to the Colts 9
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Ravens 16
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 25
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 36
Ravens24Colts10
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 36 to the Colts 28
The period ended14 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Ravens 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -1
Closing total
48
Ravens moneyline
-106
Colts moneyline
-104
Colts closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 34 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Frank Reich
(4:42) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right (91-Y.Ngakoue) [91-Y.Ngakoue]. PENALTY on BAL-90-P.McPhee, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at IND 9 - No Play. Penalty on BAL-99-M.Judon, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 7:31BAL +7% win prob(7:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at 50 for -13 yards (97-A.Muhammad).
3rd · 11:05BAL +7% win prob(11:05) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Johnson (24-M.Peters). Baltimore challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 83-M.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at 50. 24-M.Peters to 50 for no gain (83-M.Johnson). FUMBLES (83-M.Johnson), recovered by BAL-36-C.Clark at BAL 46.
Ravenscategory by categoryColts
Ravens0
Colts6
