2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Indianapolis Colts

IND -1 upsetU 48 ✓DomeColts closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Baltimore Ravens 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 11:12, BAL +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 11:12BAL — IND BAL ball · 1st & 3BAL 61%

(11:12) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards to IND 6 for -3 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 7. 53-D.Leonard to IND 10 for 3 yards (35-G.Edwards). FUMBLES (35-G.Edwards), recovered by

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 11:12BAL +25% win prob(11:12) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards to IND 6 for -3 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 7. 53-D.Leonard to IND 10 for 3 yards (35-G.Edwards). FUMBLES (35-G.Edwards), recovered by IND-58-B.Okereke at IND 12. 58-B.Okereke to IND 23 for 11 yards (15-M.Brown).
Q1 · 1:28BAL +23% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to BAL 36 for 9 yards (40-M.Harrison, 24-M.Peters). FUMBLES (24-M.Peters), RECOVERED by BAL-36-C.Clark at BAL 35. 36-C.Clark for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:34IND +10% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right end to IND 39 for 4 yards (37-K.Willis).
Q3 · 10:31IND +9% win prob(10:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 15-M.Brown to IND 31 for 20 yards (53-D.Leonard).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Colts
Offensive plays	63	63
Total yards	266	339 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.00 (edge)	-0.37
Success rate	49% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	46%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	-0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19 (edge)	-0.44
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	18
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Colts outgained Ravens 339–266 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

25/43, 227 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-13.8 expected points added · -10.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

19/23, 170 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

7.4 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

13 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jordan WilkinsRB

11 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

4/7 for 56 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Zach PascalWR

5/6 for 55 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · -3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 22	6	19	2:39	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 20	4	6	2:07	Punt
3	IND	IND 35	9	60	4:41	Touchdown
4	BAL	BAL 25	8	13	3:27	Punt
5	IND	IND 42	2	22	0:55	Defensive touchdown
6	IND	IND 26	7	33	2:30	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 20	6	18	3:29	Punt
8	IND	IND 22	4	5	1:07	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 29	9	15	3:42	Punt
10	IND	IND 7	11	53	4:38	Turnover on downs
11	BAL	BAL 10	5	3	0:29	Punt
12	IND	IND 42	3	9	0:16	End of half
13	BAL	BAL 25	9	68	3:55	Fumble
14	IND	IND 23	2	4	0:07	Interception
15	BAL	BAL 46	10	50	5:15	Touchdown
16	IND	IND 27	5	1	1:12	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 25	15	75	8:23	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 25	13	59	5:39	Turnover on downs
19	BAL	BAL 16	4	8	0:27	Punt
20	IND	IND 31	4	5	0:42	Turnover on downs
21	BAL	IND 36	4	6	2:12	Turnover on downs
22	IND	IND 32	11	73	2:08	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 75 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	19/23	170	0	0	2	7.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	13	58	4.5	1	1.0
J.K. Dobbins	12	30	2.5	0	0.4
Gus Edwards	11	23	2.1	1	-7.4
Matt Skura	1	0	0.0	0	-0.6
Devin Duvernay	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Nick Boyle	4	4	46	17%	3.4
Marquise Brown	3	5	38	22%	2.1
Willie Snead	4	4	37	17%	2.1
Mark Andrews	3	5	22	22%	0.8
Gus Edwards	2	2	11	9%	0.0
Miles Boykin	1	1	11	4%	0.7
J.K. Dobbins	2	2	5	9%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Malik Harrison	4	5	0	0
Matt Judon	4	2	0	1
Jimmy Smith	3	2	0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	2	0	0
Marcus Peters	2	1	1	1
Chuck Clark	3	0	0	1
DeShon Elliott	3	0	0	0
Terrell Bonds	3	0	0	0
Patrick Queen	2	1	0	0
Jaylon Ferguson	2	0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	25/43	227	0	1	0	-13.8
Jacoby Brissett	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Wilkins	11	39	3.5	0	-1.3
DeMichael Harris	2	28	14.0	0	1.9
Jonathan Taylor	6	27	4.5	1	-10.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	18	9.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	4	7	56	18%	3.8
Zach Pascal	5	6	55	15%	-3.5
Mo Alie-Cox	3	3	43	8%	2.7
DeMichael Harris	4	4	27	10%	1.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	3	20	8%	-1.1
Marcus Johnson	2	7	14	18%	-6.9
Jonathan Taylor	2	2	7	5%	-0.7
Trey Burton	1	4	6	10%	-5.8
Jack Doyle	0	2	0	5%	-1.8
Jordan Wilkins	2	2	-1	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	12	2	0.0	0
Bobby Okereke	7	2	0.0	0
Khari Willis	6	1	0.0	0
Anthony Walker	2	2	0.0	1
DeForest Buckner	1	3	0.0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	3	0	1.0	0
Julian Blackmon	3	0	0.0	0
Grover Stewart	1	1	0.0	1
Rock Ya-Sin	2	0	0.0	0
Xavier Rhodes	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -1
Closing total: 48
BAL moneyline: -106
IND moneyline: -104

Colts closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 34 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: BAL 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Frank Reich