For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
Tennessee Titans 24, Bears 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:47, 3rd and 2, on A.J. Brown — 7.8 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:47 · 3rd and 2
A.J. Brown
Titans
(4:47) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Titans closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Tennessee Titans 24–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:47, Titans +7.8% win probability on one snap.
7.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Barkevious MingoBearsQ2 13:23(13:23) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 36-D.Houston-Carson. 50-B.Mingo right end pushed ob at CHI 47 for 11 yards (37-A.Hooker).
6.8pts
David MontgomeryTitansQ3 4:53(4:53) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery to TEN 34 for -4 yards (98-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by TEN-33-D.King at TEN 37. 33-D.King for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-11-D.Mooney, Illegal Motion, declined.
7.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Titans won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 15 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Titans at 4 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Bears170 of 180 plays carry both curves
(4:47) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +7.8 for TitansExpected points +4.33 for TitansThe model had Bears 10 points higher than the market did.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:47TEN +8% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:53CHI +7% win prob(4:53) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery to TEN 34 for -4 yards (98-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by TEN-33-D.King at TEN 37. 33-D.King for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-11-D.Mooney, Illegal Motion, declined.
2nd · 13:23TEN +7% win prob(13:23) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 36-D.Houston-Carson. 50-B.Mingo right end pushed ob at CHI 47 for 11 yards (37-A.Hooker).
1st · 1:25TEN +7% win prob(1:25) 8-R.Allen punts 60 yards to CHI 20, Center-47-M.Overton, out of bounds.
1st · 6:43TEN +6% win prob(6:43) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown to CHI 28 for 38 yards (59-D.Trevathan; 97-M.Edwards).
3rd · 6:33TEN +5% win prob(6:33) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 88-R.Ridley to TEN 27 for 18 yards (33-D.King).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stephen Gostkowski's 40-yard field goal with 4:26 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:26Stephen Gostkowski·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap M.OvertonLead never changed again+30–3
2nd4:47A.J. Brown·40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–10
4th12:33Cairo Santos·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–17
4th8:14Jonnu Smith·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+73–24
4th5:11Ryan Nall·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+710–24
4th1:07Jimmy Graham·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+717–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryTitans
Bears6–2Titans
375Total yards230
5.0Yards per play4.3
39%Success rate30%
13%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays4
19First downs11
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Bears ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Bears: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.10Titans: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Bears: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.04Titans: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Bears: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.14Titans: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 75 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Titans’s 53 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Titans 2.
NoteBears outgained Titans 375-230 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's sack or hit rate, 24.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 18.2% in week 5.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 8.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +9.7 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Titans16.1%
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.0%, 9.7 points above their season mean of 14.3% and 1.4 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Foles pass−13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:53) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery to TEN 34 for -4 yards (98-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by TEN-33-D.King at TEN 37. 33-D.King for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-11-D.Mooney, Illegal Motion, declined.
Q3 4:53 · Bears · 3rd & 13 at TEN 30 · lost 7 · -9.30 EP · −12.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 91 yards from the TEN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
34%
Yards
603
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.4474%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.6639%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.4863%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR11+0.3482%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1280%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.4533%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.680%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Titans 34
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Titans 35
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Bears 40
Bears0Titans3
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Bears 22
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 24
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Titans 36
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 22
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Titans 45
Bears0Titans9
Bears0Titans10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 9 to the Bears 40
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 40
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 9 to the Titans 10
The period ended6 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Titans 31
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 32
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Bears0Titans16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Titans 27
Bears0Titans17
The period ended11 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Titans 22
4th quarter56 plays
Bears3Titans17
Field goal6 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 4
Bears3Titans23
Bears3Titans24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Bears 2
Bears9Titans24
Bears10Titans24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Titans 6
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 29
Fumble lost1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Bears 36
Bears16Titans24
Bears17Titans24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Titans 8
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
