2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Denver Broncos

Atlanta FalconsWinner

ATL -4.5 ✓O 50 ✓DomeFalcons closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Atlanta Falcons 34–27. Biggest swing: Q1 1:33, ATL +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:33DEN — ATL ATL ball · 3rd & 11ATL 71%

(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-M.Reed]. Penalty on DEN-27-D.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:33ATL +13% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-M.Reed]. Penalty on DEN-27-D.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 · 9:23ATL +7% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 15-B.Powell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:11ATL +6% win prob(9:11) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 87-N.Fant pushed ob at ATL 45 for 32 yards (37-R.Allen) [54-F.Oluokun].
Q1 · 12:01ATL +6% win prob(12:01) (No Huddle) 21-T.Gurley left tackle to DEN 37 for 13 yards (22-K.Jackson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Falcons
Offensive plays	71	67
Total yards	405 (edge)	365
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	-0.03	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	34%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	-0.26 (edge)
Third downs	7/16	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	20	20
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Broncos outgained Falcons 405–365 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

25/48, 313 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

1.4 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

25/35, 284 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

11.0 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Todd GurleyRB

19 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Drew LockQB

7 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

7/14 for 125 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Olamide ZaccheausWR

4/6 for 103 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	11	41	5:09	Turnover on downs
2	DEN	DEN 20	7	39	2:51	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 15	12	90	5:36	Touchdown
4	DEN	DEN 23	10	52	2:57	Turnover on downs
5	ATL	ATL 25	11	75	4:09	Touchdown
6	DEN	DEN 29	5	4	2:06	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 16	12	53	5:28	Turnover on downs
8	DEN	DEN 31	8	17	1:18	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 18	1	0	0:26	End of half
10	DEN	DEN 23	10	32	3:58	Turnover on downs
11	ATL	ATL 25	2	0	0:11	Interception
12	DEN	DEN 25	4	7	1:23	Fumble
13	ATL	ATL 20	7	50	3:08	Touchdown
14	DEN	DEN 18	8	22	2:28	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 18	4	6	1:34	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 30	11	70	4:03	Touchdown
17	ATL	ATL 25	8	31	3:26	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 15	1	0	0:13	Interception
19	ATL	DEN 12	3	12	0:31	Touchdown
20	DEN	DEN 25	6	40	1:40	Turnover on downs
21	ATL	ATL 35	4	-1	1:47	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 31	8	55	1:45	Touchdown
23	ATL	DEN 42	5	3	0:31	Punt
24	DEN	DEN 18	6	67	1:30	Touchdown
25	ATL	DEN 44	5	5	1:08	Punt
26	DEN	DEN 20	4	0	0:21	Turnover on downs
27	ATL	DEN 19	1	0	0:23	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 90 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	25/48	313	2	1	1	1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Drew Lock	7	47	6.7	1	-0.4
Phillip Lindsay	8	23	2.9	0	-2.8
Melvin Gordon	6	18	3.0	0	-2.2
K.J. Hamler	1	15	15.0	0	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	7	14	125	1	31%	2.6
K.J. Hamler	6	10	75	0	22%	0.8
Noah Fant	3	3	45	0	7%	2.6
Tim Patrick	4	9	29	1	20%	-0.9
DaeSean Hamilton	2	2	12	0	4%	-0.0
Nick Vannett	1	1	11	0	2%	1.1
Melvin Gordon	1	1	9	0	2%	-0.2
Albert Okwuegbunam	1	1	7	0	2%	1.9
Phillip Lindsay	0	3	0	0	7%	-1.2
Tyrie Cleveland	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Josey Jewell	9	1	0	0
Alexander Johnson	5	3	0	0
Kareem Jackson	6	0	0	0
Justin Simmons	4	1	1	2
Essang Bassey	4	0	0	1
DeShawn Williams	3	1	0	0
Davontae Harris	3	0	0	0
Kevin Toliver	2	1	0	0
Bradley Chubb	1	2	0	0
Michael Ojemudia	2	1	0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	25/35	284	3	1	2	11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	19	53	2.8	1	-5.8
Brian Hill	8	24	3.0	0	-1.9
Matt Ryan	3	10	3.3	0	-1.9
Brandon Powell	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2
Keith Smith	1	1	1.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Olamide Zaccheaus	4	6	103	1	17%	8.1
Hayden Hurst	7	8	62	0	23%	1.5
Julio Jones	5	7	54	1	20%	1.2
Christian Blake	3	3	31	0	9%	1.5
Luke Stocker	1	1	12	0	3%	0.8
Russell Gage	2	6	11	0	17%	-2.3
Brandon Powell	1	1	9	1	3%	2.9
Todd Gurley	2	2	2	0	6%	0.9
Brian Hill	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	7	3	1.0	1
Deion Jones	5	1	0.0	1
Jacob Tuioti-Mariner	3	2	0.0	0
A.J. Terrell	2	3	0.0	1
Isaiah Oliver	4	0	0.0	0
John Cominsky	2	2	0.0	0
Keanu Neal	3	1	0.0	0
Kendall Sheffield	3	0	0.0	0
Mykal Walker	3	0	0.0	0
Darqueze Dennard	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -4.5
Closing total: 50
DEN moneyline: +193
ATL moneyline: -218

Falcons closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 50; the game landed 61 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: DEN 7 days · ATL 10 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Raheem Morris