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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 34, Broncos 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:33, 3rd and 11, on Olamide Zaccheaus — 13.4 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:33 · 3rd and 11
Olamide Zaccheaus
Falcons
(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-M.Reed]. Penalty on DEN-27-D.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Dome
Falcons closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Atlanta Falcons 34–27. Biggest swing: Q1 1:33, Falcons +13.4% win probability on one snap.
13.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Noah FantBroncosQ1 9:11(9:11) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 87-N.Fant pushed ob at ATL 45 for 32 yards (37-R.Allen) [54-F.Oluokun].
6.4pts
Brandon PowellFalconsQ2 9:23(9:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 15-B.Powell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Falcons at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Broncos182 of 191 plays carry both curves
(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-M.Reed]. Penalty on DEN-27-D.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing +13.4 for FalconsExpected points +5.59 for FalconsThe model had Broncos 7 points higher than the market did.play 32
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:33ATL +13% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-M.Reed]. Penalty on DEN-27-D.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 9:23ATL +7% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 15-B.Powell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:11ATL +6% win prob(9:11) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 87-N.Fant pushed ob at ATL 45 for 32 yards (37-R.Allen) [54-F.Oluokun].
1st · 12:01ATL +6% win prob(12:01) (No Huddle) 21-T.Gurley left tackle to DEN 37 for 13 yards (22-K.Jackson).
2nd · 11:01ATL +5% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to DEN 13 for 42 yards (27-D.Harris).
1st · 11:29DEN +3% win prob(11:29) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 21-T.Gurley to DEN 41 for -4 yards (47-J.Jewell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 52-yard field goal with 9:56 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:56Younghoe Koo·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+30–3
1st1:33Olamide Zaccheaus·51-yd TD catch51-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+70–10
2nd13:32Brandon McManus·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–10
2nd9:23Brandon Powell·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+73–17
2nd1:48Younghoe Koo·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+33–20
3rd11:06Brandon McManus·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–20
3rd6:27Julio Jones·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+76–27
Broncos ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Broncos: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.06Falcons: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Broncos: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.31Falcons: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.38Broncos: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.26Falcons: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 71 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Falcons’s 67 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Falcons 6.
NoteBroncos outgained Falcons 405-365 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.3% in week 8 against 23.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Falcons18.2%
inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.7%, 8.8 points above their season mean of 14.9% and 1.3 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-M.Reed]. Penalty on DEN-27-D.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q1 1:33 · Falcons · 3rd & 11 at ATL 49 · gained 51 · +5.59 EP · +15.7% win probability
180 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 85 yards from the ATL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
39%
Yards
768
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62-0.0069%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2370%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0850%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2467%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.3213%
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Broncos0Falcons3
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Broncos 34
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Falcons 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Broncos0Falcons9
Broncos0Falcons10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 15 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 44
2nd quarter47 plays
Broncos3Falcons10
Field goal6 plays, from the Falcons 42 to the Falcons 25
Broncos3Falcons16
Broncos3Falcons17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Broncos 9
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Broncos 33
Broncos3Falcons20
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Broncos 10
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Broncos6Falcons20
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Falcons 23
Intercepted2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
Broncos6Falcons26
Broncos6Falcons27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Broncos 21
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 29
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Falcons 24
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Falcons 35
4th quarter63 plays
Broncos12Falcons27
Broncos13Falcons27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Falcons 20
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Broncos 39
Intercepted1 play
Broncos13Falcons33
Broncos13Falcons34
Touchdown3 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Broncos 4
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Falcons 35
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Falcons 38
Broncos19Falcons34
Broncos20Falcons34
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Falcons 9
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Broncos 39
Broncos26Falcons34
Broncos27Falcons34
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Falcons 10
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 44 to the Broncos 39
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
