2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Detroit Lions

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -3 ✓O 51.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Minnesota Vikings 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 1:25, MIN +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:25DET — MIN DET ball · 1st & 10MIN 78%

(1:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:25MIN +9% win prob(1:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:22MIN +8% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 31-A.Abdullah for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:11DET +7% win prob(4:11) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q1 · 11:18MIN +6% win prob(11:18) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 5 for 22 yards (30-J.Okudah).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Vikings
Offensive plays	73	55
Total yards	421	487 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8	8.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10	0.28 (edge)
Success rate	53% (edge)	53%
Dropback rate	64%	38%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.26 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	15 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

13/20, 220 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

6.3 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

23/32, 211 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

22 att, 206 yds, 2 TD

9.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

12 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Danny AmendolaWR

7/10 for 77 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

3/4 for 64 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	5	9	1:49	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 33	6	67	2:32	Touchdown
3	DET	DET 25	13	47	6:32	Turnover on downs
4	MIN	MIN 36	6	64	2:41	Touchdown
5	DET	DET 25	16	70	8:05	Turnover on downs
6	MIN	MIN 21	8	25	3:10	Punt
7	DET	DET 28	9	65	3:52	Touchdown
8	MIN	MIN 13	8	87	1:04	Touchdown
9	DET	DET 30	3	17	0:15	End of half
10	MIN	MIN 16	6	26	2:10	Punt
11	DET	DET 12	4	6	0:51	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 23	10	59	4:09	Touchdown
13	DET	DET 25	9	40	3:08	Interception
14	MIN	MIN 28	4	5	1:43	Punt
15	DET	MIN 22	5	17	2:09	Interception
16	MIN	MIN 20	4	7	1:15	Punt
17	DET	DET 31	8	42	3:33	Turnover on downs
18	MIN	MIN 30	3	70	0:20	Touchdown
19	DET	DET 13	3	28	0:37	Interception
20	MIN	MIN 39	4	18	3:07	Punt
21	DET	MIN 2	2	2	0:03	Touchdown
22	MIN	MIN 41	11	59	5:00	Turnover on downs
23	DET	DET 10	10	78	1:55	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 87 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	23/32	211	1	2	2	-1.4
Chase Daniel	8/13	94	1	1	0	-4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Andre Swift	13	64	4.9	-1.2
Kerryon Johnson	4	29	7.3	1.1
Adrian Peterson	8	29	3.6	-1.7
Chase Daniel	1	5	5.0	0.0
Danny Amendola	1	2	2.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Danny Amendola	7	10	77	0	23%	1.5
Marvin Jones	3	4	43	1	9%	4.8
T.J. Hockenson	5	8	39	1	18%	-12.6
Kerryon Johnson	3	3	36	0	7%	-1.8
D'Andre Swift	3	5	33	0	11%	1.9
Quintez Cephus	2	2	31	0	5%	2.4
Marvin Hall	3	5	28	0	11%	1.8
Adrian Peterson	3	5	14	0	11%	-0.5
Jason Cabinda	1	1	4	0	2%	0.1
Jesse James	1	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jayron Kearse	3	5	0.0	0
Jamie Collins	4	4	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	2	4	0.0	0
Desmond Trufant	4	2	1.0	1
Christian Jones	2	3	0.0	0
Reggie Ragland	2	2	0.0	0
Will Harris	4	0	0.0	0
Romeo Okwara	1	2	0.0	1
Everson Griffen	1	2	0.0	1
Nicholas Williams	1	2	0.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	13/20	220	3	0	1	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	22	206	9.4	2	9.0
Alexander Mattison	12	69	5.8	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	3	4	64	0	20%	3.6
Dalvin Cook	2	2	46	0	10%	3.8
Kyle Rudolph	3	4	40	0	20%	-0.9
Adam Thielen	2	5	38	0	25%	-3.4
Ameer Abdullah	1	1	22	1	5%	3.4
Irv Smith	2	4	10	2	20%	1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Wilson	8	5	0.5	1	1
Kris Boyd	8	2	0.0	0	1
Harrison Smith	7	3	0.0	1	1
Jeff Gladney	5	2	0.0	0	0
Eric Kendricks	3	3	0.0	1	1
Troy Dye	3	2	0.0	0	0
Anthony Harris	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jalyn Holmes	1	3	0.0	0	0
Armon Watts	1	3	0.5	0	0
Josh Metellus	3	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3
Closing total: 51.5
DET moneyline: +155
MIN moneyline: -173

Vikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 54 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: DET 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Mike Zimmer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.