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2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit20
BY 14final margin
VikingsMinnesota34
Detroit Lions 20 at Minnesota Vikings 34. Final.
Vikings -3 ✓O 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 9
Minnesota Vikings 34, Lions 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:25, 1st and 10, on Marvin Jones — 9.5 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:25 · 1st and 10
Marvin Jones
Lions
(1:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Vikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Minnesota Vikings 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 1:25, Lions +9.5% win probability on one snap.
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Matt PraterVikingsQ1 4:11(4:11) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
6.9pts
Ameer AbdullahVikingsQ2 0:22(:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 31-A.Abdullah for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 15 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Lions167 of 175 plays carry both curves
(1:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.5 for VikingsExpected points −2.31 for VikingsThe model had Lions 3 points higher than the market did.play 67
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:25MIN +9% win prob(1:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:22MIN +8% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 31-A.Abdullah for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:11DET +7% win prob(4:11) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
1st · 11:18MIN +6% win prob(11:18) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 5 for 22 yards (30-J.Okudah).
1st · 4:54DET +5% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at MIN 28 for -9 yards (sack split by 93-S.Stephen and 51-H.Mata'afa).
1st · 1:30MIN +5% win prob(1:30) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dalvin Cook's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 10:42 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:42Dalvin Cook·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Vikings ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Lions: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.28Vikings: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Lions: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.30Vikings: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Lions: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.26Vikings: +0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 73 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Vikings’s 55 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Lions 6, Vikings 6.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's early-down pass rate, 29.5%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 7.3 points clear of the next team along.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Vikings10.6%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 29.5%, 21.9 points below their season mean of 51.4% and 1.6 times their own 13.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%75 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%75 snaps
65Tyrell CrosbyT · Every snap100%75 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%75 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time95%71 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Full-time80%60 snaps
88T.J. HockensonTE · Heavy rotation76%57 snaps
17Marvin HallWR · Heavy rotation71%53 snaps
72Halapoulivaati VaitaiT · Heavy rotation68%51 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford sacked−7% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at MIN 28 for -9 yards (sack split by 93-S.Stephen and 51-H.Mata'afa).
Q1 4:54 · Lions · 3rd & 5 at MIN 19 · lost 9 · -1.99 EP · −7.0% win probability
165 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 87 yards from the MIN 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
47%
Yards
908
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1469%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.3440%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13+0.410%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13+0.3354%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2350%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1833%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1660%
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 34
Lions0Vikings6
Lions0Vikings7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Lions 5
No good13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 19
Lions0Vikings13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Lions 9
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 39
2nd quarter44 plays
Lions3Vikings13
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Vikings 1
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 46
Lions9Vikings13
Lions10Vikings13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Vikings 15
Lions10Vikings19
Lions10Vikings20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 13 to the Lions 22
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 37
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 12 to the Lions 18
Lions10Vikings26
Lions10Vikings27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Lions 1
Intercepted9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 20
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Vikings 33
Intercepted5 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 5
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 27
Lions13Vikings27
Field goal8 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Vikings 27
Lions13Vikings33
Lions13Vikings34
Touchdown3 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Lions 41
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Vikings 47
Lions19Vikings34
Lions20Vikings34
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Lions 10
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Vikings 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
