2020 Week 9 · Thu, Nov 5, 2020 · Levi's Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

San Francisco 49ers

GB -6 ✓O 48.5 ✓Packers closed -6 and covered, winning by 17.

Green Bay Packers 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:48, SF +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:48GB — SF GB ball · 2nd & 8GB 75%

(11:48) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:48SF +8% win prob(11:48) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 · 11:51GB +5% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 28-J.McKinnon INTERCEPTED by 24-R.Greene [91-P.Smith] at GB 45. 24-R.Greene to SF 38 for 17 yards (68-C.McKivitz).
Q1 · 6:25SF +4% win prob(6:25) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 13-R.James to GB 34 for 43 yards (31-A.Amos). Caught at SF 42, 24-YAC
Q1 · 14:30SF +4% win prob(14:30) 33-A.Jones right tackle to GB 41 for 11 yards (54-F.Warner).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	49ers
Offensive plays	62	53
Total yards	406 (edge)	337
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	44%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	53%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.63 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

25/31, 305 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

19.7 expected points added · +15.9% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

22/35, 291 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.0 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

15 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jerick McKinnonRB

12 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Richie JamesWR

9/13 for 184 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

10/12 for 173 yds, 1 TD

40% of team targets · 15.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	8	75	3:18	Touchdown
2	SF	SF 31	5	9	1:34	Punt
3	GB	GB 20	7	27	3:10	Punt
4	SF	SF 20	11	71	6:11	Turnover on downs
5	GB	GB 25	5	6	0:59	Punt
6	SF	SF 25	6	35	3:06	Interception
7	GB	SF 38	10	30	4:41	Touchdown
8	SF	SF 25	5	4	1:35	Punt
9	GB	GB 13	9	82	3:33	Touchdown
10	SF	SF 25	5	5	1:09	Punt
11	GB	GB 26	1	-11	0:44	End of half
12	SF	SF 33	6	5	1:43	Punt
13	GB	GB 20	10	80	6:00	Touchdown
14	SF	SF 30	5	2	1:50	Fumble
15	GB	SF 47	7	46	3:26	Turnover on downs
16	SF	SF 39	7	66	2:32	Turnover on downs
17	GB	GB 5	12	65	8:14	Turnover on downs
18	SF	SF 20	6	80	1:15	Touchdown
19	GB	GB 25	5	6	2:21	Punt
20	SF	SF 25	11	60	2:35	Touchdown
21	GB	GB 28	2	0	0:04	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 82 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	25/31	305	4	0	1	19.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	15	58	3.9	-1.0
Tyler Ervin	8	24	3.0	-1.6
Malik Taylor	1	9	9.0	0.7
Dexter Williams	2	8	4.0	-0.3
Aaron Rodgers	1	7	7.0	1.2
John Lovett	3	6	2.0	-1.2
Tim Boyle	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	10	12	173	1	40%	15.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	4	53	2	13%	4.5
Tyler Ervin	4	5	48	0	17%	3.3
Aaron Jones	5	5	21	0	17%	-0.6
Robert Tonyan	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.2
Darrius Shepherd	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.1
Jace Sternberger	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.5
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	1	1	3%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Oren Burks	4	2	0
Adrian Amos	5	0	0
Josh Jackson	4	0	1
Ty Summers	3	1	0
Randy Ramsey	1	2	0
Krys Barnes	1	2	0
Henry Black	2	1	0
John Lovett	2	0	0
Rashan Gary	1	1	0
Ka'dar Hollman	1	1	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	22/35	291	1	1	1	-3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jerick McKinnon	12	52	4.3	1	4.9
Jamycal Hasty	4	3	0.8	0	-2.4
Nick Mullens	1	0	0.0	0	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Richie James	9	13	184	1	38%	11.0
Ross Dwelley	3	3	52	0	9%	2.7
Jerick McKinnon	3	4	16	0	12%	-2.8
River Cracraft	2	5	13	0	15%	-2.5
Jamycal Hasty	2	2	10	0	6%	-0.0
Trent Taylor	1	4	9	0	12%	-2.6
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2
Jordan Reed	1	2	3	0	6%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Fred Warner	7	5	0
Dre Greenlaw	4	4	0
Jaquiski Tartt	3	4	1
Marcell Harris	4	1	0
Jamar Taylor	4	1	0
Emmanuel Moseley	3	2	1
Azeez Al-Shaair	1	3	0
Jimmie Ward	2	2	0
Jason Verrett	1	3	0
Javon Kinlaw	2	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -6
Closing total: 48.5
GB moneyline: -246
SF moneyline: +215

Packers closed -6 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 51 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: GB 4 days · SF 4 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Kyle Shanahan