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Green Bay Packers 34 at San Francisco 49ers 17. Final.
Packers -6 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 9
Green Bay Packers 34, 49ers 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:48, 2nd and 8, on Davante Adams — 8.0 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:48 · 2nd and 8
Davante Adams
Packers
(11:48) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Packers closed -6 and covered, winning by 17.
Green Bay Packers 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:48, Packers +8.0% win probability on one snap.
8.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Richie James49ersQ1 6:25(6:25) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 13-R.James to GB 34 for 43 yards (31-A.Amos). Caught at SF 42, 24-YAC
4.4pts
Raven GreenePackersQ2 11:51(11:51) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 28-J.McKinnon INTERCEPTED by 24-R.Greene [91-P.Smith] at GB 45. 24-R.Greene to SF 38 for 17 yards (68-C.McKivitz).
4.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.63 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against 49ers at 3 of 10 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Packers153 of 165 plays carry both curves
(11:48) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Swing −8.0 for 49ersExpected points −4.05 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 24 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:48SF +8% win prob(11:48) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 11:51GB +5% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 28-J.McKinnon INTERCEPTED by 24-R.Greene [91-P.Smith] at GB 45. 24-R.Greene to SF 38 for 17 yards (68-C.McKivitz).
1st · 6:25SF +4% win prob(6:25) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 13-R.James to GB 34 for 43 yards (31-A.Amos). Caught at SF 42, 24-YAC
1st · 14:30SF +4% win prob(14:30) 33-A.Jones right tackle to GB 41 for 11 yards (54-F.Warner).
2nd · 12:19GB +4% win prob(12:19) 38-J.Hasty right end to GB 33 for 7 yards (31-A.Amos). PENALTY on SF-13-R.James, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
2nd · 7:10SF +3% win prob(7:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. PENALTY on SF-22-J.Verrett, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at SF 9 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davante Adams's 36-yard touchdown catch with 11:48 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Packers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Packers: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.63Packers: +0.63 expected points added per play
−0.0849ers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Packers: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.0549ers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 62 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against 49ers’s 53 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, 49ers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's sack or hit rate, 3.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.1% in week 6.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 61.2% in week 8 against 44.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
GB's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 8 against 20.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 37.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
49ers3.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.0%, 9.1 points below their season mean of 12.1% and 1.4 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:48) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 11:48 · Packers · 2nd & 8 at SF 36 · gained 36 · +4.05 EP · +9.8% win probability
151 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 87 yards from the GB 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
44%
Yards
742
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0973%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.4760%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0540%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.0963%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.5250%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Packers0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Packers649ers0
Packers749ers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 36
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 40
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 47
Packers749ers3
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Packers 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 27
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt2 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Packers 40
Packers1349ers3
Packers1449ers3
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the 49ers 1
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 29
Packers2049ers3
Packers2149ers3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Packers 48
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 30
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the 49ers 43
Packers2749ers3
Packers2849ers3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 20 to the 49ers 1
Fumble lost5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Packers 44
Packers3149ers3
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the 49ers 1
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Packers 14
4th quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs3 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Packers 5
Packers3449ers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Packers 5 to the 49ers 30
Packers3449ers9
Packers3449ers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Packers 41
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 31
Packers3449ers16
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Packers 1
Packers3449ers17
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Packerscategory by category49ers
Packers6
49ers0
