2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

HOU -7 no coverO 49 ✓Texans closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Houston Texans 27–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 14:19, JAX +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:19HOU — JAX JAX ball · 3rd & 8HOU 79%

(14:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:19JAX +16% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 6:16JAX +14% win prob(6:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:56HOU +13% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 25-D.Johnson up the middle to HOU 43 for no gain (44-M.Jack). FUMBLES (44-M.Jack), RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at HOU 43.
Q1 · 13:44JAX +9% win prob(13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 13-B.Cooks for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Jaguars
Offensive plays	59	68
Total yards	377	403 (edge)
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	47% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	68%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.47	-0.15 (edge)
Third downs	6/14	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Jake LutonQB

26/38, 304 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.3 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

19/32, 281 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.1 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

25 att, 99 yds, 1 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

10 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

5.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

D.J. CharkWR

7/12 for 146 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Will FullerWR

5/5 for 100 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	5	75	0:52	Touchdown
2	HOU	HOU 25	4	75	0:35	Touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 28	5	2	1:00	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 19	6	45	2:45	Turnover on downs
5	JAX	JAX 22	9	23	3:35	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 6	4	5	1:02	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 38	4	2	1:43	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 30	14	46	6:01	Turnover on downs
9	JAX	JAX 25	14	75	6:45	Touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 25	5	18	1:57	Fumble
11	JAX	HOU 43	4	-7	1:34	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 2	7	43	1:44	Touchdown
13	JAX	JAX 41	4	18	0:27	Turnover on downs
14	HOU	HOU 25	5	10	1:50	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 9	10	61	5:44	Interception
16	HOU	HOU 19	4	81	1:21	Touchdown
17	JAX	JAX 25	10	63	4:54	Turnover on downs
18	HOU	HOU 22	11	21	5:20	Punt
19	JAX	JAX 19	6	14	2:55	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	JAX 41	4	2	1:01	Punt
21	JAX	JAX 16	4	-3	1:11	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 31	9	31	2:47	Punt
23	JAX	JAX 20	8	80	1:27	Touchdown
24	HOU	JAX 47	4	0	1:30	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 81 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	19/32	281	2	0	2	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Deshaun Watson	10	50	5.0	0	5.1
Duke Johnson	16	41	2.6	1	-8.0
David Johnson	2	16	8.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Will Fuller	5	5	100	1	17%	10.7
Brandin Cooks	3	9	83	1	31%	2.7
Duke Johnson	4	4	32	0	14%	1.3
Darren Fells	2	2	26	0	7%	1.7
Randall Cobb	3	3	21	0	10%	0.2
Jordan Akins	2	4	19	0	14%	0.6
David Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.8
Pharaoh Brown	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrell Adams	6	7	0.0	0	0
Zach Cunningham	5	2	1.0	0	1
Justin Reid	5	1	0.0	0	0
Lonnie Johnson	6	0	0.0	0	0
Phillip Gaines	4	2	0.0	0	0
Brennan Scarlett	2	1	0.0	0	0
Vernon Hargreaves	2	1	0.0	1	1
Eric Murray	2	1	0.0	0	0
Keion Crossen	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Greenard	1	2	0.0	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jake Luton	26/38	304	1	1	2	2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	25	99	4.0	1	-3.7
Jake Luton	1	13	13.0	1	2.3
Chris Thompson	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Chark	7	12	146	1	32%	4.7
Chris Conley	7	8	52	0	21%	1.2
Tyler Eifert	4	5	48	0	13%	3.1
Chris Thompson	4	4	35	0	11%	2.4
Collin Johnson	1	2	9	0	5%	0.1
James O'Shaughnessy	1	2	9	0	5%	-2.2
Keelan Cole	1	2	6	0	5%	-1.5
James Robinson	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.6
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Myles Jack	6	5	0.0	1
Joe Schobert	5	1	0.5	0
Josh Jones	3	2	0.0	0
Tre Herndon	4	0	1.0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	1	3	0.5	0
C.J. Henderson	3	1	0.0	1
Sidney Jones	4	0	0.0	1
Jarrod Wilson	2	1	0.0	0
Taven Bryan	1	1	0.0	0
James O'Shaughnessy	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -7
Closing total: 49
HOU moneyline: -289
JAX moneyline: +249

Texans closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49; the game landed 52 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: HOU 14 days · JAX 14 days
Coaches: Romeo Crennel vs Doug Marrone

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.