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2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
TexansHouston27
BY 2final margin
JaguarsJacksonville25
Houston Texans 27 at Jacksonville Jaguars 25. Final.
Texans -7 no coverO 49 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 9
Houston Texans 27, Jaguars 25 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q1 14:19, 3rd and 8, on D.Chark — 15.8 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:19 · 3rd and 8
D.Chark
Jaguars
(14:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.5 mph wind
Texans closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 27–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 14:19, Jaguars +15.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Duke JohnsonJaguarsQ2 3:56(3:56) (Shotgun) 25-D.Johnson up the middle to HOU 43 for no gain (44-M.Jack). FUMBLES (44-M.Jack), RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at HOU 43.
12.6pts
Will FullerTexansQ3 6:16(6:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Texans at 6 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at +0.11 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Texans167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(14:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.8 for JaguarsExpected points +6.76 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 28 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:19JAX +16% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:16JAX +14% win prob(6:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:56HOU +13% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 25-D.Johnson up the middle to HOU 43 for no gain (44-M.Jack). FUMBLES (44-M.Jack), RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at HOU 43.
1st · 13:44JAX +9% win prob(13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 13-B.Cooks for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:30HOU +8% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-J.Luton pass to 17-D.Chark Jr. is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
2nd · 1:30JAX +8% win prob(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 15-W.Fuller. PENALTY on JAX-23-C.Henderson, Defensive Pass Interference, 50 yards, enforced at HOU 14 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Duke Johnson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:31 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
3rd1:14Josh Lambo·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+327–19
4th1:39Jake Luton·13-yd TD run13-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+627–25
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryJaguars
Texans2–4Jaguars
377Total yards403
6.4Yards per play5.9
47%Success rate43%
43%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays9
17First downs22
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Jaguars ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Texans: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.01Jaguars: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Texans: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.11Jaguars: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.47Texans: −0.47 expected points added per play
−0.15Jaguars: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 59 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 68 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Jaguars 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jaguars10.0%
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 28.9 points below their season mean of 28.9% and 1.2 times their own 23.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass+21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 6:16 · Texans · 3rd & 6 at HOU 23 · gained 77 · +7.58 EP · +20.5% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 93 yards from the HOU 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
45%
Yards
777
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1780%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1967%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.0547%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1636%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.6413%
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7+0.4757%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Texans0Jaguars6
Texans0Jaguars7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 27
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Texans6Jaguars7
Texans7Jaguars7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 43
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Jaguars 30
Texans10Jaguars7
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Jaguars 34
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 45
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 6 to the Texans 11
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Jaguars 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Jaguars 35
2nd quarter47 plays
Texans13Jaguars7
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 11
Texans13Jaguars13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 1
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 43
Punt4 plays
Texans19Jaguars13
Texans20Jaguars13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 2 to the Jaguars 1
Texans20Jaguars16
Field goal6 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Texans 41
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
Intercepted10 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Texans 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Texans26Jaguars16
Texans27Jaguars16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 23
Texans27Jaguars19
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 11
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 24
4th quarter50 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 47
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 41
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 39
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Jaguars 22
Punt13 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Jaguars 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Texans27Jaguars25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Texans 13
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -7
Closing total
49
Texans moneyline
-289
Jaguars moneyline
+249
Texans closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49; the game landed 52 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 79°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the east; 0.01 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Texans 14 days · Jaguars 14 days
Coaches
Romeo Crennel vs Doug Marrone
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 17.5 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
3rd · 9:25
JAX +7% win prob
(9:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. to HOU 45 for 27 yards (32-L.Johnson) [99-J.Watt]. Penalty on HOU-26-V.Hargreaves, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 0:03JAX +6% win prob(:03) 4-J.Lambo 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
