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Las Vegas Raiders 31 at Los Angeles Chargers 26. Final.
Raiders -1 ✓O 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 9
Las Vegas Raiders 31, Chargers 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:01, 3rd and 4, on D.Parham — 34.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 3rd and 4
D.Parham
Raiders
(:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham Jr. for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 89-D.Parham Jr. (31-I.Johnson).
Dome
Raiders closed -1 and covered, winning by 5.
Las Vegas Raiders 31–26. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Raiders +34.8% win probability on one snap.
34.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nelson AgholorRaidersQ3 13:26(13:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 15-N.Agholor for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetRaidersQ4 8:20(8:20) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LAC 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-K.Hill Jr. MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LV-58-K.Wilber at LAC 31.
17.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 6 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.25 expected points per carry, against Chargers at +0.01 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Raiders at 1 giveaway.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Raiders163 of 175 plays carry both curves
(:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham Jr. for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short ri
Swing −34.8 for ChargersExpected points −2.72 for ChargersThe model had Chargers 10 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01LV +35% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham Jr. for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 89-D.Parham Jr. (31-I.Johnson).
3rd · 13:26LAC +19% win prob(13:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 15-N.Agholor for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:20LAC +17% win prob(8:20) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LAC 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-K.Hill Jr. MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LV-58-K.Wilber at LAC 31.
2nd · 0:12LV +14% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 26 for -6 yards (99-J.Tillery). FUMBLES (99-J.Tillery), RECOVERED by LAC-99-J.Tillery at LV 27.
2nd · 13:29LAC +13% win prob(13:29) 31-K.Ballage right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:26LAC +13% win prob(:26) (No Huddle) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nelson Agholor's 45-yard touchdown catch with 13:26 left in the 3rd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
3rd4:23Michael Badgley·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+328–20
4th9:12Gabe Nabers·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbertfrom Justin Herbert · two-point no good+628–26
4th4:42Daniel Carlson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+331–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryChargers
Raiders4–3Chargers
320Total yards440
6.4Yards per play5.9
44%Success rate44%
50%Third-down rate47%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays6
16First downs25
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Raiders ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Raiders: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.12Chargers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Raiders: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.19Chargers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.25Raiders: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.01Chargers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 50 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Chargers’s 75 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 5, Chargers 5.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Chargers15.4%
right on their number · +1.1 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7% against a season mean of 40.7% — and LAC swings 29.1 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass−45% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham Jr. for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 89-D.Parham Jr. (31-I.Johnson).
Q4 0:01 · Chargers · 3rd & goal at LV 4 · gained nothing · -2.72 EP · −45.0% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 82 yards from the LAC 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
40%
Yards
760
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62+0.1455%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.2455%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2138%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.6271%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.3029%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.4050%
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Raiders 16
No good8 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Raiders 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Raiders6Chargers0
Raiders7Chargers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Chargers 23
The period ended11 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Raiders 28
2nd quarter44 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Raiders7Chargers6
Raiders7Chargers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 5
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 15
Raiders13Chargers7
Raiders14Chargers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chargers 14
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Raiders14Chargers13
Raiders14Chargers14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 27
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
Raiders14Chargers17
Field goal1 play
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Raiders20Chargers17
Raiders21Chargers17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Chargers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.8 seconds
Raiders27Chargers17
Raiders28Chargers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 2
Raiders28Chargers20
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Raiders 11
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 42
4th quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, four linebackers and two backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Raiders28Chargers26
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Raiders 4
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 28
Raiders31Chargers26
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldThree tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
The period ended23 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Raiderscategory by categoryChargers
Raiders6
Chargers0
