2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · SoFi Stadium

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

LV -1 ✓O 52.5 ✓DomeRaiders closed -1 and covered, winning by 5.

Las Vegas Raiders 31–26. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, LV +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:01LV — LAC LAC ball · 3rd & 4LV 65%

(:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham Jr. for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short ri

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:01LV +35% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham Jr. for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 89-D.Parham Jr. (31-I.Johnson).
Q3 · 13:26LAC +19% win prob(13:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 15-N.Agholor for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:20LAC +17% win prob(8:20) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LAC 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-K.Hill Jr. MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LV-58-K.Wilber at LAC 31.
Q2 · 0:12LV +14% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 26 for -6 yards (99-J.Tillery). FUMBLES (99-J.Tillery), RECOVERED by LAC-99-J.Tillery at LV 27.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Chargers
Offensive plays	50	75
Total yards	320	440 (edge)
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	0.12
Success rate	44%	44%
Dropback rate	52%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12	0.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	0.01
Third downs	5/10 (edge)	7/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	16	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

28/42, 326 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.1 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

13/23, 165 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.3 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Kalen BallageRB

15 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Devontae BookerRB

8 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

9/11 for 103 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

5/7 for 81 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 31	7	13	1:37	Punt
2	LV	LV 13	4	3	0:53	Punt
3	LAC	LAC 39	7	36	4:15	Turnover on downs
4	LV	LV 38	8	62	3:33	Touchdown
5	LAC	LAC 19	15	81	6:18	Touchdown
6	LV	LV 25	7	25	2:55	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 11	4	-4	1:32	Punt
8	LV	LAC 44	7	44	3:23	Touchdown
9	LAC	LAC 25	12	85	5:15	Touchdown
10	LV	LV 25	3	2	0:11	Fumble
11	LAC	LV 27	1	0	0:03	Turnover on downs
12	LV	—	1	0	0:05	End of half
13	LV	LV 45	6	55	1:42	Touchdown
14	LAC	LAC 25	5	9	1:50	Punt
15	LV	LV 25	9	75	3:39	Touchdown
16	LAC	LAC 27	10	62	3:30	Turnover on downs
17	LV	LV 25	9	33	4:28	Punt
18	LAC	LAC 18	13	77	5:47	Touchdown
19	LV	LV 25	5	3	0:57	Punt
20	LV	LAC 31	6	18	3:30	Turnover on downs
21	LAC	LAC 25	16	81	4:37	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	13/23	165	2	0	1	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devontae Booker	8	68	8.5	1	4.1
Josh Jacobs	14	65	4.6	1	2.4
Derek Carr	2	14	7.0	0	1.8
Henry Ruggs	1	10	10.0	0	0.6
Jalen Richard	1	3	3.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Renfrow	2	3	60	0	13%	3.2
Nelson Agholor	2	3	55	1	13%	5.6
Darren Waller	5	10	22	1	43%	-4.1
Jalen Richard	1	1	19	0	4%	2.9
Alec Ingold	1	1	6	0	4%	0.8
Josh Jacobs	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.4
Henry Ruggs	0	3	0	0	13%	-3.6
Jason Witten	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lamarcus Joyner	5	6	0.0	0
Nick Kwiatkoski	7	3	0.0	0
Johnathan Abram	5	4	0.0	1
Maxx Crosby	1	5	1.0	0
Isaiah Johnson	3	3	0.0	2
Cory Littleton	3	3	0.0	0
Erik Harris	2	2	0.0	0
Maliek Collins	1	2	0.0	0
Nicholas Morrow	2	1	0.0	1
Clelin Ferrell	2	1	0.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	28/42	326	2	0	2	10.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kalen Ballage	15	69	4.6	1	4.1
Joshua Kelley	9	28	3.1	0	-1.3
Justin Herbert	5	24	4.8	0	-1.4
Joe Reed	2	7	3.5	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	9	11	103	1	27%	9.5
Mike Williams	5	7	81	0	17%	4.0
Tyron Johnson	1	1	50	0	2%	3.2
Hunter Henry	4	7	33	0	17%	0.4
Joshua Kelley	5	5	31	0	12%	1.4
Kalen Ballage	2	3	15	0	7%	0.2
Jalen Guyton	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.7
Gabe Nabers	1	1	4	1	2%	1.0
Joe Reed	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9
Donald Parham	0	3	0	0	7%	-4.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Rayshawn Jenkins	3	2	0
Kyzir White	3	2	1
Nasir Adderley	5	0	1
Michael Davis	4	0	1
Justin Jones	1	3	0
Kenneth Murray	2	2	0
Melvin Ingram	2	2	0
Linval Joseph	2	1	0
Denzel Perryman	1	2	0
Isaac Rochell	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -1
Closing total: 52.5
LV moneyline: -112
LAC moneyline: +102

Raiders closed -1 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 57 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: LV 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Anthony Lynn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.