2020 Week 9 · Mon, Nov 9, 2020 · MetLife Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

New York Jets

NE -9.5 no coverO 41.5 ✓Patriots closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New England Patriots 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:28, NYJ +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:28NE — NYJ NE ball · 1st & 10NYJ 63%

(3:28) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-D.Byrd pushed ob at NYJ 3 for 31 yards (31-B.Austin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:28NYJ +19% win prob(3:28) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-D.Byrd pushed ob at NYJ 3 for 31 yards (31-B.Austin).
Q4 · 0:03NYJ +16% win prob(:03) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Q2 · 10:07NYJ +16% win prob(10:07) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:08NYJ +15% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers to NYJ 33 for 20 yards (32-A.Davis).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Jets
Offensive plays	74	44
Total yards	434 (edge)	322
Yards per play	5.9	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.23	0.30 (edge)
Success rate	50%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	47%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39	0.55 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	8/14	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

27/35, 274 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

14.0 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Joe FlaccoQB

18/25, 262 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

14.2 expected points added · +16.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

14 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rex BurkheadRB

12 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

12/14 for 169 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Breshad PerrimanWR

5/7 for 101 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	58	6:27	Turnover on downs
2	NE	NE 25	10	75	4:59	Touchdown
3	NYJ	NYJ 21	9	38	3:12	Punt
4	NE	NE 7	6	20	2:39	Punt
5	NYJ	NYJ 7	6	88	2:44	Touchdown
6	NE	NE 25	8	32	3:46	Turnover on downs
7	NYJ	NYJ 43	5	25	1:40	Turnover on downs
8	NE	NE 19	10	44	3:30	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 23	4	35	0:38	Touchdown
10	NE	NE 10	2	0	0:25	End of half
11	NE	NE 22	15	78	7:33	Touchdown
12	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	75	6:57	Touchdown
13	NE	NE 32	18	63	9:26	Turnover on downs
14	NYJ	NYJ 18	2	0	0:14	Interception
15	NE	NE 28	12	77	3:53	Touchdown
16	NYJ	NYJ 26	5	3	1:10	Punt
17	NE	NE 22	8	45	0:47	Turnover on downs

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 88 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	27/35	274	0	0	0	14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	14	71	5.1	0	0.4
Rex Burkhead	12	56	4.7	1	3.9
Cam Newton	10	16	1.6	2	2.2
Gunner Olszewski	3	16	5.3	0	-0.1
James White	2	0	0.0	0	-3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	12	14	169	41%	11.1
Damiere Byrd	5	9	65	26%	5.4
James White	4	5	24	15%	-0.7
Rex Burkhead	3	3	11	9%	-0.8
Jakob Johnson	2	2	6	6%	-0.3
Gunner Olszewski	1	1	-1	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Adrian Phillips	6	1	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	4	2	1.0	0
Terez Hall	1	5	0.0	0
Chase Winovich	2	3	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Jason McCourty	2	1	0.0	0
Devin McCourty	1	2	0.0	1
Byron Cowart	1	1	0.0	0
Matt Slater	1	1	0.0	0
Justin Bethel	2	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	18/25	262	3	1	1	14.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Frank Gore	12	46	3.8	0	-0.2
La'Mical Perine	6	19	3.2	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Breshad Perriman	5	7	101	2	29%	8.6
Denzel Mims	4	8	62	0	33%	-2.0
Ryan Griffin	2	2	28	0	8%	1.3
Jamison Crowder	2	2	26	1	8%	3.4
La'Mical Perine	2	2	19	0	8%	2.4
Frank Gore	2	2	13	0	8%	0.7
Braxton Berrios	1	1	13	0	4%	1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Blessuan Austin	9	3	1
Harvey Langi	7	1	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	4	3	0
Neville Hewitt	5	2	0
Jordan Jenkins	3	2	0
Arthur Maulet	4	1	0
Ashtyn Davis	4	1	1
Tarell Basham	3	1	0
Bryce Huff	2	1	0
Pierre Desir	2	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -9.5
Closing total: 41.5
NE moneyline: -372
NYJ moneyline: +312

Patriots closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 57 — over by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: NE 8 days · NYJ 8 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Adam Gase

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.