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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Patriots156 of 167 plays carry both curves
(3:28) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-D.Byrd pushed ob at NYJ 3 for 31 yards (31-B.Austin).
Swing −18.7 for JetsExpected points −2.68 for JetsThe model had Jets 14 points higher than the market did.play 145
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:28NYJ +19% win prob(3:28) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-D.Byrd pushed ob at NYJ 3 for 31 yards (31-B.Austin).
4th · 0:03NYJ +16% win prob(:03) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
2nd · 10:07NYJ +16% win prob(10:07) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:08NYJ +15% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers to NYJ 33 for 20 yards (32-A.Davis).
2nd · 6:19NE +11% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 28-J.White up the middle to NYJ 43 for -4 yards (94-F.Fatukasi). FUMBLES (94-F.Fatukasi), recovered by NE-69-S.Mason at NYJ 43.
4th · 1:29NE +11% win prob(1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at NYJ 29 for -5 yards (91-D.Wise).
3rd · 0:34
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 51-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:37Sergio Castillo·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+30–3
4th0:03Nick Folk·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+330–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryJets
Patriots6–3Jets
434Total yards322
5.9Yards per play7.3
50%Success rate55%
57%Third-down rate60%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays5
27First downs16
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Patriots ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Patriots: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.30Jets: +0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Patriots: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.55Jets: +0.55 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Patriots: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.05Jets: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 74 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Jets’s 44 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Jets 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Jets11.4%
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 37.3 points above their season mean of 29.4% and 1.6 times their own 23.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Nick Folk+24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Q4 0:03 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at NYJ 33 · gained nothing · +1.09 EP · +23.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 93 yards from the NYJ 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.24
Success rate
48%
Yards
755
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR38+0.2737%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1558%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.4563%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0650%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Patriots0Jets3
Field goal13 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Patriots 17
Patriots6Jets3
Patriots7Jets3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jets 5
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Patriots 41
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 27
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Patriots7Jets9
Patriots7Jets10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 7 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jets 39
Patriots7Jets13
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Patriots 32
Patriots10Jets13
Field goal14 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Jets 27
Patriots10Jets19
Patriots10Jets20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Patriots 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Patriots16Jets20
Patriots17Jets20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Jets 1
Patriots17Jets26
Patriots17Jets27
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Patriots 15
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Patriots20Jets27
Field goal18 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Jets 7
Intercepted2 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Patriots26Jets27
Patriots27Jets27
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Jets 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Patriots30Jets27
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Jets 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -9.5
Closing total
41.5
Patriots moneyline
-372
Jets moneyline
+312
Patriots closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 57 — over by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 56°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Patriots 8 days · Jets 8 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Adam Gase
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NYJ +11% win prob
(:34) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 19-B.Perriman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:36NYJ +11% win prob(:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 19-B.Perriman. PENALTY on NE-30-J.McCourty, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at NYJ 38 - No Play.
