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Game Center
Game Center
2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2020 Week 9
It turned at Q1 3:46, 2nd and 7, on Jared Cook — 11.7 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:46 · 2nd and 7
Jared Cook
Buccaneers
(3:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to TB 2 for 11 yards (33-J.Whitehead; 45-D.White). FUMBLES (33-J.Whitehead), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 2. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
New Orleans Saints 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:46, Buccaneers +11.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Saints won this one — 9 of 13 on third down, against Buccaneers at 1 of 9 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.55 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.57 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(3:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to TB 2 for 11 yards (33-J.Whitehead; 45-D.White). FUMBLES (33-J.Whitehead), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 2. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, a
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tre'Quan Smith's 14-yard touchdown catch with 9:42 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Tre'Quan Smith14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Drew BreesLead never changed again+77–07 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 68 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 45 at 91%. Red-zone trips: Saints 7, Buccaneers 2.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.55.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's early-down pass rate, 87.9%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 6.9 points clear of the next team along.
33 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points.
NO's pass rate over expected, +9.1 pts, is past their previous high of −2.4 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
TB's pass rate over expected, +18.2 pts, is past their previous high of +12.1 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Saints9.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.9 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 68 snaps
Buccaneers18.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.1 vs their 6.1 pts, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.38× that swing) · 45 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 93%
Tendencies room →Saints50.0%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 51.3%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 54 early downs
Buccaneers87.9%off script — passed early · +27.8 vs their 60.1%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (+2.28× that swing) · 33 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14% to 59%
Fourth Down room →Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 20.4%.
Buccaneers33.3%inside their normal wobble · +10.7 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 37%
Tendencies room →Saints22.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Buccaneers8.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
TB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 87.9%, 27.8 points above their season mean of 60.1% and 2.3 times their own 12.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 3 inactive
Inactive · 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
26/32, 222 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
11.8 expected points added · +18.4% completion over expected
Passing · TB
22/38, 209 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-23.3 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-T.Smith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 9:42 · Saints · 3rd & 10 at TB 14 · gained 14 · +3.33 EP · +8.8% win probability
147 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 70 yards from the NO 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints6
Buccaneers0Saints7Buccaneers0Saints13Buccaneers0Saints14Buccaneers0Saints20Buccaneers0Saints21Buccaneers0Saints27Buccaneers0Saints28Buccaneers0Saints31Buccaneers0Saints37Buccaneers0Saints38Buccaneers0Saints38Buccaneers3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/32 | 222 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +11.8 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Latavius Murray |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 18% | +3.3 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 3% | +3.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| P.J. Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/38 | 209 | 0 | 3 | 3 | −23.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2020_09_NO_TB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 41 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 16.1 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 10 |
| 39 |
| 3.9 |
| 0 |
| +0.1 |
| Dwayne Washington | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 9% | +5.0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 15% | +5.0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 9% | −3.3 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | +2.1 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 6% | +2.8 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 18% | −2.7 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Janoris Jenkins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 |
| 9 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 16% | −1.7 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 16% | +0.7 |
| Chris Godwin | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 16% | −1.2 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 14% | +0.1 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8% | −0.9 |
| Ronald Jones | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −7.5 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16% | −7.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lavonte David | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
