2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -3 upsetU 51 ✓17 mph windBuccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:46, NO +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:46NO — TB NO ball · 2nd & 7NO 78%

(3:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to TB 2 for 11 yards (33-J.Whitehead; 45-D.White). FUMBLES (33-J.Whitehead), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 2. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, a

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:46NO +12% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to TB 2 for 11 yards (33-J.Whitehead; 45-D.White). FUMBLES (33-J.Whitehead), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 2. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 7:44TB +8% win prob(7:44) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass short left to 11-D.Harris to TB 26 for 40 yards (54-L.David).
Q1 · 14:15NO +7% win prob(14:15) 8-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to NO 35, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.
Q1 · 9:42TB +7% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-T.Smith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	68	45
Total yards	425 (edge)	195
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	0.23 (edge)	-0.55
Success rate	53% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	54%	91%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	-0.57
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	9/13 (edge)	1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.55.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

26/32, 222 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

11.8 expected points added · +18.4% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

22/38, 209 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-23.3 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

7 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

9 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

4/6 for 64 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · -1.7 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

5/6 for 51 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	5	7	0:54	Punt
2	NO	NO 35	10	65	4:32	Touchdown
3	TB	TB 25	5	9	1:50	Punt
4	NO	NO 34	7	64	4:08	Fumble
5	TB	TB 2	4	2	0:58	Punt
6	TB	TB 35	6	35	2:38	Touchdown
7	TB	TB 18	5	7	0:53	Punt
8	NO	50	6	50	2:23	Touchdown
9	TB	TB 23	3	11	0:47	Interception
10	NO	TB 27	6	27	2:12	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 25	9	37	3:48	Turnover on downs
12	NO	NO 38	8	44	3:08	Turnover on downs
13	TB	TB 25	4	32	0:52	Interception
14	NO	NO 15	2	0	0:57	End of half
15	NO	NO 25	7	23	3:12	Fumble
16	TB	NO 21	6	12	2:16	Turnover on downs
17	NO	NO 1	8	30	4:46	Punt
18	TB	TB 19	8	34	3:49	Interception
19	NO	NO 30	11	60	6:50	Touchdown
20	TB	TB 25	8	44	3:15	Turnover on downs
21	NO	NO 40	11	27	5:18	Turnover on downs
22	TB	TB 31	1	0	0:34	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 65 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	26/32	222	4	1	11.8
Taysom Hill	2/2	48	0	0	5.0
Jameis Winston	1/1	12	0	0	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Taysom Hill	7	54	7.7	0	3.0
Alvin Kamara	9	40	4.4	1	0.6
Latavius Murray	10	39	3.9	0	0.1
Dwayne Washington	5	9	1.8	0	-2.0
Michael Burton	1	1	1.0	0	1.5
Drew Brees	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0
Jameis Winston	3	-3	-1.0	0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	5	6	51	0	18%	3.3
Deonte Harty	1	1	40	0	3%	3.1
Adam Trautman	3	3	39	1	9%	5.0
Emmanuel Sanders	4	5	38	1	15%	5.0
Jared Cook	2	3	30	0	9%	-3.3
Taysom Hill	1	1	21	0	3%	2.1
Josh Hill	2	2	14	1	6%	2.3
Tre'Quan Smith	1	2	14	1	6%	2.8
Michael Burton	1	1	12	0	3%	1.9
Marquez Callaway	2	2	11	0	6%	0.3
Alvin Kamara	5	6	9	0	18%	-2.7
Latavius Murray	2	2	3	0	6%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Demario Davis	5	0	0.0	0	1
Malcolm Jenkins	5	0	0.0	1	1
P.J. Williams	3	2	0.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	3	0	0.0	0	1
Trey Hendrickson	2	1	2.0	0	0
Janoris Jenkins	2	0	0.0	0	2
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Adam Trautman	1	0	0.0	0	0
Jared Cook	1	0	0.0	0	0
Marcus Williams	1	0	0.0	1	1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	22/38	209	0	3	3	-23.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ronald Jones	3	9	3.0	-0.6
Leonard Fournette	1	0	0.0	-0.7
Blaine Gabbert	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	4	6	64	16%	-1.7
Leonard Fournette	6	6	41	16%	0.7
Chris Godwin	3	6	41	16%	-1.2
Antonio Brown	3	5	31	14%	0.1
Tyler Johnson	1	1	11	3%	0.6
Scott Miller	1	3	10	8%	-0.9
Ronald Jones	3	4	9	11%	-7.5
Rob Gronkowski	1	6	2	16%	-7.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin White	7	7	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	3	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	2	5	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	3	4	0.0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	5	2	0.0	1
Lavonte David	4	3	0.0	0
William Gholston	4	1	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	2	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	2	2	1.0	0
Anthony Nelson	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3
Closing total: 51
NO moneyline: +160
TB moneyline: -179

Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 41 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: NO 7 days · TB 6 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Bruce Arians

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.