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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:03 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Giants 23 at Washington Commanders 20. Final.
Commanders -3 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 9
New York Giants 23, Commanders 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:23, 2nd and 6, on Logan Ryan — 28.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:23 · 2nd and 6
Logan Ryan
Giants
(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-L.Ryan at WAS 45. 23-L.Ryan to WAS 30 for 15 yards (82-L.Thomas).
43 push
Commanders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:23, Giants +28.4% win probability on one snap.
28.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Terry McLaurinCommandersQ4 10:35(10:35) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.8pts
Jabrill PeppersGiantsQ4 2:27(2:27) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 41-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Peppers at NYG 40. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 46 for 6 yards (41-J.McKissic).
25.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 4 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Giants won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.11 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Giants162 of 171 plays carry both curves
(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-L.Ryan at WAS 45. 23-L.Ryan to WAS 30 for 15 yards (82-L.Thomas).
Swing −28.4 for CommandersExpected points −3.90 for CommandersModel and market agree here.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:23NYG +28% win prob(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-L.Ryan at WAS 45. 23-L.Ryan to WAS 30 for 15 yards (82-L.Thomas).
4th · 2:27NYG +25% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 41-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Peppers at NYG 40. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 46 for 6 yards (41-J.McKissic).
4th · 10:35WAS +17% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:26WAS +16% win prob(5:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to WAS 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 83-I.Wright MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 15. 83-I.Wright to WAS 15 for no gain (47-C.Brown). FUMBLES (47-C.Brown), RECOVERED by NYG-45-M.Harper at WAS 16.
1st · 12:16NYG +9% win prob(12:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-D.Lewis left guard to WAS 35 for no gain (94-D.Payne).
1st · 11:49WAS +9% win prob(11:49) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 81-A.Mack to WAS 31 for 50 yards (31-K.Curl; 23-R.Darby).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Graham Gano's 38-yard field goal with 9:40 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:40Graham Gano·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+33–0
3rd5:16Graham Gano·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+323–10
4th15:00Dustin Hopkins·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+323–13
4th10:35Terry McLaurin·68-yd TD catch68-yard touchdown catchfrom Alex Smithfrom Alex Smith+723–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCommanders
Giants4–4Commanders
353Total yards402
5.0Yards per play8.0
45%Success rate52%
43%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays7
21First downs19
5Sacks taken2
0Turnovers4
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Giants: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.01Commanders: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Giants: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.01Commanders: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Giants: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.11Commanders: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 71 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Commanders’s 50 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Commanders 4.
NoteCommanders outgained Giants 402-353 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 9Against their seasonOver Expected
WAS's pass rate over expected, +13.5 pts, is past their previous high of +5.4 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
WAS's early-down pass rate, 81.0%, is past their previous high of 71.1% in week 5 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Commanders23.1%
inside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.5 pts, 12.8 points above their season mean of 0.7 pts and 2.2 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Smith pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-L.Ryan at WAS 45. 23-L.Ryan to WAS 30 for 15 yards (82-L.Thomas).
Q4 1:23 · Commanders · 2nd & 6 at WAS 32 · gained nothing · -3.90 EP · −27.9% win probability
160 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 84 yards from the WAS 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
752
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1362%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0587%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.0548%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.3173%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.1533%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 35
Fumble lost1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Giants3Commanders0
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Commanders 20
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 27
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 36
Giants9Commanders0
Giants10Commanders0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 2
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Giants 10
2nd quarter46 plays
Giants10Commanders3
Field goal4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 20
Giants13Commanders3
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 26
Giants19Commanders3
Giants20Commanders3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Commanders 16
Intercepted9 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Giants 18
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Giants20Commanders9
Giants20Commanders10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Giants 1
Giants23Commanders10
Field goal14 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 22
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Giants 25
4th quarter46 plays
Giants23Commanders13
Field goal1 play
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Giants23Commanders19
Giants23Commanders20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 32
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Commanders 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Giants 40
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 46 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 32
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -3
Closing total
43
Giants moneyline
+145
Commanders moneyline
-162
Commanders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 70°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Giants 6 days · Commanders 14 days
Coaches
Joe Judge vs Ron Rivera
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 2:10NYG +8% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 43 for -7 yards (31-K.Curl).
2nd · 0:58NYG +8% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 41-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 54-B.Martinez at NYG 18. 54-B.Martinez to NYG 20 for 2 yards (41-J.McKissic).
