2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · FedExField

New York GiantsWinner

Washington Commanders

WAS -3 upset43 pushCommanders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:23, NYG +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:23NYG — WAS WAS ball · 2nd & 6NYG 68%

(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-L.Ryan at WAS 45. 23-L.Ryan to WAS 30 for 15 yards (82-L.Thomas).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:23NYG +28% win prob(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-L.Ryan at WAS 45. 23-L.Ryan to WAS 30 for 15 yards (82-L.Thomas).
Q4 · 2:27NYG +25% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 41-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Peppers at NYG 40. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 46 for 6 yards (41-J.McKissic).
Q4 · 10:35WAS +17% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:26WAS +16% win prob(5:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to WAS 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 83-I.Wright MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 15. 83-I.Wright to WAS 15 for no gain (47-C.Brown). FUMBLES (47-C.Brown), RECOVERED by NYG-45-M.Harper at WAS 16.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Commanders
Offensive plays	71	50
Total yards	353	402 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	8.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	45%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	3/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Commanders outgained Giants 402–353 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

24/32, 325 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

2.1 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

23/34, 212 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.6 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Wayne GallmanRB

14 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Alfred MorrisRB

9 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/8 for 115 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Cam SimsWR

3/4 for 110 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 25	8	40	2:52	Turnover on downs
2	WAS	WAS 35	1	21	0:19	Fumble
3	NYG	NYG 19	7	61	2:14	Turnover on downs
4	WAS	WAS 25	5	2	1:03	Punt
5	NYG	NYG 25	7	11	3:19	Punt
6	NYG	WAS 16	5	16	0:58	Touchdown
7	WAS	WAS 26	10	54	6:10	Turnover on downs
8	NYG	NYG 25	10	40	3:41	Turnover on downs
9	WAS	WAS 25	5	-4	2:26	Punt
10	NYG	NYG 23	11	77	4:53	Touchdown
11	WAS	WAS 23	7	59	1:16	Interception
12	NYG	NYG 20	3	0	0:49	End of half
13	WAS	WAS 25	8	70	2:36	Touchdown
14	NYG	NYG 25	13	61	7:12	Turnover on downs
15	WAS	WAS 21	10	63	5:16	Turnover on downs
16	NYG	NYG 25	8	31	3:32	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 16	4	84	1:00	Touchdown
18	NYG	NYG 35	10	19	5:12	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 11	10	49	2:54	Interception
20	NYG	NYG 46	4	-3	0:30	Punt
21	WAS	WAS 28	2	4	0:33	Interception
22	NYG	WAS 30	2	0	1:15	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 84 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	23/34	212	1	0	5	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Wayne Gallman	14	68	4.9	1	1.5
Alfred Morris	9	67	7.4	0	2.2
Sterling Shepard	1	18	18.0	0	1.3
Dion Lewis	3	5	1.7	0	-3.9
Daniel Jones	6	4	0.7	0	-3.7
Darius Slayton	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
Elijhaa Penny	1	2	2.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Mack	4	5	72	0	15%	6.3
Evan Engram	5	10	48	1	30%	1.2
Sterling Shepard	6	8	39	0	24%	0.7
Dion Lewis	2	2	16	0	6%	-1.0
C.J. Board	1	1	10	0	3%	1.4
Wayne Gallman	1	2	9	0	6%	0.3
Kaden Smith	1	1	8	0	3%	1.1
Darius Slayton	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Alfred Morris	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Elijhaa Penny	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Levine Toilolo	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Martinez	3	7	0.0	1	2
Isaac Yiadom	4	2	0.5	0	0
Logan Ryan	5	1	0.0	1	2
Jabrill Peppers	4	2	0.0	1	3
Darnay Holmes	4	1	0.0	0	0
Devante Downs	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jabaal Sheard	1	2	0.0	0	0
Leonard Williams	1	2	1.0	0	0
Kyler Fackrell	1	2	0.0	0	0
Elijhaa Penny	1	0	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	24/32	325	1	3	2	2.1
Kyle Allen	5/7	62	0	0	0	2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	6	20	3.3	1	-0.4
J.D. McKissic	3	17	5.7	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	7	8	115	1	21%	3.9
Cam Sims	3	4	110	0	10%	7.9
J.D. McKissic	9	14	65	0	36%	-7.4
Antonio Gibson	3	3	35	0	8%	-2.2
Isaiah Wright	3	3	30	0	8%	2.8
Logan Thomas	3	6	28	0	15%	-0.5
Steven Sims	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Kamren Curl	6	5	1.0
Ronald Darby	6	1	0.0
Daron Payne	5	2	0.0
Cole Holcomb	3	4	0.0
Jon Bostic	2	5	0.0
Deshazor Everett	7	0	0.0
Kendall Fuller	5	1	0.0
Jonathan Allen	2	2	0.5
Jimmy Moreland	3	0	0.0
J.D. McKissic	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -3
Closing total: 43
NYG moneyline: +145
WAS moneyline: -162

Commanders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 75°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: NYG 6 days · WAS 14 days
Coaches: Joe Judge vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.