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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:34 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 29.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 49 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Steelers170 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:04) (Shotgun) 3-G.Gilbert pass incomplete deep middle to 88-C.Lamb (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Swing −14.2 for CowboysExpected points −2.51 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 22 points higher than the market did.play 182
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04PIT +14% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 3-G.Gilbert pass incomplete deep middle to 88-C.Lamb (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
2nd · 7:52DAL +13% win prob(7:52) (Shotgun) 3-G.Gilbert pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:18DAL +12% win prob(3:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson to DAL 13 for 42 yards (25-X.Woods).
3rd · 11:51DAL +12% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right tackle pushed ob at PIT 23 for 20 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
4th · 11:54PIT +11% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 3-G.Gilbert pass short middle intended for 11-C.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick [97-C.Heyward] at PIT -5. 39-M.Fitzpatrick to PIT 7 for 12 yards (19-A.Cooper). PENALTY on PIT-34-Te.Edmunds, Illegal Blindside Block, 1 yard, enforced at PIT 2.
4th · 4:03DAL +11% win prob(4:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 11-C.Claypool [54-J.Smith]. Incomplete on a deep seam route. PENALTY on DAL-54-J.Smith, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 21 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eric Ebron's 8-yard touchdown catch with 2:19 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st3:59Greg Zuerlein·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+30–3
2nd3:50Greg Zuerlein·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+30–13
2nd1:16James Washington·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · kick no good, wide left+66–13
2nd0:02Chris Boswell·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+39–13
3rd10:22Greg Zuerlein·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+39–16
3rd2:17Greg Zuerlein·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+39–19
4th15:00JuJu Smith-Schuster·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · kick blocked by T.Crawford+615–19
4th7:15Chris Boswell·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+318–19
4th2:19Eric Ebron·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point no goodLead never changed again+624–19
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryCowboys
Steelers5–4Cowboys
355Total yards364
5.5Yards per play5.2
45%Success rate41%
38%Third-down rate47%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays10
18First downs19
0Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Steelers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Steelers: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.13Cowboys: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Steelers: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.17Cowboys: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.59Steelers: −0.59 expected points added per play
−0.07Cowboys: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 64 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 70 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Cowboys 3.
NoteCowboys outgained Steelers 364-355 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 65.9% in week 8 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 33 pts
right on their number · −3.6 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Cowboys4.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 42.7 points below their season mean of 42.7% and 1.5 times their own 29.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%69 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%69 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%69 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%69 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Full-time94%65 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time91%63 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time86%59 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Full-time86%59 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Full-time81%56 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Rotational46%32 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational41%28 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Rotational29%20 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Situational19%13 snaps
26Anthony McFarlandRB · Situational12%8 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Situational7%5 snaps
2Mason RudolphQB · Situational6%4 snaps
65Jerald HawkinsT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Mike HiltonCBTyson AlualuDEDerek WattFBJoshua DobbsQBDerwin GrayTZach GentryTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Gilbert pass−36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) (Shotgun) 3-G.Gilbert pass incomplete deep middle to 88-C.Lamb (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q4 0:04 · Cowboys · 3rd & 4 at PIT 23 · gained nothing · -2.51 EP · −35.8% win probability
168 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 79 yards from the PIT 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
40%
Yards
719
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0972%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.1770%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.1229%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR21+0.57100%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2229%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.1240%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Cowboys 49
Steelers0Cowboys3
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Steelers 14
Punt5 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Cowboys 30
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Cowboys 35
Steelers0Cowboys9
Steelers0Cowboys10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Steelers 20
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 32
Steelers0Cowboys13
Field goal4 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Steelers 26
Steelers6Cowboys13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Cowboys 17
Fumble lost3 plays
Steelers9Cowboys13
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Cowboys 36
3rd quarter38 plays
Steelers9Cowboys16
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Steelers 23
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 31
Steelers9Cowboys19
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Steelers 22
The period ended9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Cowboys 30
4th quarter59 plays
Steelers15Cowboys19
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Steelers 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Steelers18Cowboys19
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 1 to the Cowboys 24
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 41
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Steelers24Cowboys19
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Cowboys 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 41
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Steelers 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
