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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 44, Seahawks 34 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:21, 3rd and 16, on John Brown — 8.5 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:21 · 3rd and 16
John Brown
Bills
(12:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 15-J.Brown to SEA 2 for 33 yards (21-T.Flowers).
Seahawks closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 44–34. Biggest swing: Q4 12:21, Bills +8.5% win probability on one snap.
8.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh AllenBillsQ1 7:56(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 3 for 7 yards (91-L.Collier, 43-C.Dunlap). PENALTY on SEA-91-L.Collier, Horse Collar Tackle, 2 yards, enforced at SEA 3.
5.9pts
DK MetcalfSeahawksQ2 9:05(9:05) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf to BUF 9 for 41 yards (27-T.White).
7.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 4 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 5 of 11 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 12 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at +0.02 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Seahawks172 of 186 plays carry both curves
(12:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 15-J.Brown to SEA 2 for 33 yards (21-T.Flowers).
Swing +8.5 for BillsExpected points +4.34 for BillsThe model had Bills 6 points higher than the market did.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:21BUF +9% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 15-J.Brown to SEA 2 for 33 yards (21-T.Flowers).
2nd · 9:05BUF +8% win prob(9:05) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf to BUF 9 for 41 yards (27-T.White).
1st · 7:56BUF +6% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 3 for 7 yards (91-L.Collier, 43-C.Dunlap). PENALTY on SEA-91-L.Collier, Horse Collar Tackle, 2 yards, enforced at SEA 3.
3rd · 14:51SEA +6% win prob(14:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 22 for -3 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], RECOVERED by BUF-27-T.White at SEA 23.
3rd · 13:34BUF +6% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis pushed ob at SEA 1 for 39 yards (37-Q.Diggs).
1st · 2:22SEA +6% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 25-T.Homer up the middle to BUF 5 for no gain (54-A.Klein, 21-J.Poyer).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Isaiah McKenzie's 25-yard touchdown catch with 13:41 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 13 scores that followed.
4th9:01David Moore·55-yd TD catch55-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+727–41
4th4:17Tyler Bass·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+327–44
4th1:55DK Metcalf·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+734–44
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryBills
Seahawks1–8Bills
419Total yards423
6.7Yards per play6.9
49%Success rate56%
25%Third-down rate45%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays9
20First downs24
5Sacks taken7
4Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.25Bills: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Seahawks: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.36Bills: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Seahawks: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.13Bills: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 63 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Bills’s 61 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Bills 8.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, +27.9 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +11.3 pts in week 1.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 4.5-swing turn from week 8.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate, 78.0%, is past their previous high of 68.6% in week 5 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
A 4.4-swing turn from week 8.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 33 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Bills23.4%
leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 27.9 pts, 19.4 points above their season mean of 8.5 pts and 2.0 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+6% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 15-J.Brown to SEA 2 for 33 yards (21-T.Flowers).
Q4 12:21 · Bills · 3rd & 16 at SEA 35 · gained 33 · +4.34 EP · +6.0% win probability
170 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 85 yards from the SEA 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
48%
Yards
839
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1771%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.2471%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR12+0.37100%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2975%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Seahawks0Bills6
Seahawks0Bills7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Seahawks 25
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 30
Seahawks0Bills13
Seahawks0Bills14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Seahawks 1
Intercepted12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Bills 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Seahawks 46
2nd quarter47 plays
Seahawks0Bills17
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Seahawks 19
Seahawks6Bills17
Seahawks7Bills17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Bills 1
Seahawks7Bills23
Seahawks7Bills24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Seahawks 4
Seahawks10Bills24
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Bills 27
No good11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Seahawks 42
3rd quarter40 plays
Fumble lost4 plays
Seahawks10Bills27
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 1
Seahawks16Bills27
Seahawks17Bills27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Bills 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 30
Seahawks20Bills27
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Bills 24
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 40
4th quarter56 plays
Seahawks20Bills33
Seahawks20Bills34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 1
Intercepted4 plays
Seahawks20Bills40
Seahawks20Bills41
Touchdown2 plays
Seahawks26Bills41
Seahawks27Bills41
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 45
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Bills 46
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 28
Seahawks27Bills44
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 13
Seahawks33Bills44
Seahawks34Bills44
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Bills 7
The period ended12 plays, from midfield to the Seahawks 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
