2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · New Era Field

Seattle Seahawks

Buffalo BillsWinner

SEA -3 upsetO 55 ✓Seahawks closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 44–34. Biggest swing: Q4 12:21, BUF +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:21SEA — BUF BUF ball · 3rd & 16BUF 82%

(12:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 15-J.Brown to SEA 2 for 33 yards (21-T.Flowers).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:21BUF +9% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 15-J.Brown to SEA 2 for 33 yards (21-T.Flowers).
Q2 · 9:05BUF +8% win prob(9:05) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf to BUF 9 for 41 yards (27-T.White).
Q1 · 7:56BUF +6% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 3 for 7 yards (91-L.Collier, 43-C.Dunlap). PENALTY on SEA-91-L.Collier, Horse Collar Tackle, 2 yards, enforced at SEA 3.
Q3 · 14:51SEA +6% win prob(14:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 22 for -3 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], RECOVERED by BUF-27-T.White at SEA 23.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Bills
Offensive plays	63	61
Total yards	419	423 (edge)
Yards per play	6.7	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	49%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	3/12	5/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	5 (edge)	7
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

31/38, 415 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.5 expected points added · +16.2% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

28/41, 390 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

2.3 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

DeeJay DallasRB

7 att, 31 yds, 1 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Zack MossRB

9 att, 18 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

9/12 for 118 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

7/9 for 108 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	SEA 45	5	45	1:25	Touchdown
2	SEA	SEA 25	5	5	0:49	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 28	11	85	5:11	Touchdown
4	SEA	SEA 25	11	70	5:56	Interception
5	BUF	BUF 20	11	54	5:17	Turnover on downs
6	SEA	SEA 15	10	60	4:42	Touchdown
7	BUF	BUF 25	7	75	2:37	Touchdown
8	SEA	SEA 25	10	48	2:56	Turnover on downs
9	BUF	BUF 25	8	33	1:07	Turnover on downs
10	SEA	SEA 25	4	-2	0:18	Fumble
11	BUF	SEA 23	6	29	2:47	Turnover on downs
12	SEA	SEA 25	13	75	5:19	Touchdown
13	BUF	BUF 25	5	-2	2:12	Punt
14	SEA	SEA 30	5	29	2:28	Turnover on downs
15	BUF	BUF 18	11	81	5:29	Touchdown
16	SEA	SEA 25	4	-15	1:43	Interception
17	BUF	SEA 3	2	3	0:06	Touchdown
18	SEA	SEA 25	5	75	0:48	Touchdown
19	BUF	BUF 37	5	9	1:42	Punt
20	SEA	SEA 20	3	-1	0:38	Fumble
21	BUF	SEA 19	4	6	2:17	Turnover on downs
22	SEA	SEA 25	9	75	2:22	Touchdown
23	BUF	50	7	5	1:51	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	28/41	390	2	2	5	2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
DeeJay Dallas	7	31	4.4	1	0.3
Travis Homer	6	16	2.7	0	-2.9
Russell Wilson	2	5	2.5	1	2.6
Alex Collins	2	5	2.5	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	7	9	108	1	23%	5.3
David Moore	4	6	71	1	15%	3.6
Travis Homer	3	3	64	0	8%	3.9
Jacob Hollister	5	7	60	0	18%	1.2
Tyler Lockett	4	7	40	0	18%	0.6
Will Dissly	1	1	26	0	3%	1.7
Greg Olsen	2	3	13	0	8%	0.2
DeeJay Dallas	2	2	8	0	5%	0.1
Freddie Swain	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Bobby Wagner	4	2	1.0
Quinton Dunbar	6	0	0.0
Tre Flowers	5	1	0.0
Carlos Dunlap	3	3	1.5
Jamal Adams	4	1	1.5
D.J. Reed	5	0	0.0
Jarran Reed	2	2	2.0
Quandre Diggs	3	0	0.0
K.J. Wright	1	1	1.0
Russell Wilson	1	0	0.0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	31/38	415	3	0	7	16.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zack Moss	9	18	2.0	1	-1.2
Josh Allen	7	14	2.0	1	0.1
Devin Singletary	2	1	0.5	0	-0.8
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	9	12	118	0	32%	3.9
John Brown	8	11	99	0	29%	4.3
Gabe Davis	4	5	70	1	13%	6.8
Cole Beasley	3	3	39	0	8%	3.0
Devin Singletary	3	3	33	0	8%	1.9
Zack Moss	2	2	30	0	5%	2.0
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	25	1	3%	2.4
Tyler Kroft	1	1	1	1	3%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	7	3	1.0	0	1
Jordan Poyer	5	3	0.0	1	1
Tre'Davious White	5	1	0.0	1	1
Micah Hyde	5	1	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Mario Addison	3	1	1.0	0	0
A.J. Klein	3	0	2.0	0	1
Justin Zimmer	2	0	0.0	0	0
Darryl Johnson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Vernon Butler	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -3
Closing total: 55
SEA moneyline: -164
BUF moneyline: +147

Seahawks closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55; the game landed 78 — over by 23.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: SEA 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Sean McDermott