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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 4:17 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 17 at New England Patriots 23. Final.
Ravens -7 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 10
New England Patriots 23, Ravens 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:10, 2nd and 6, on Rex Burkhead — 10.4 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:10 · 2nd and 6
Rex Burkhead
Patriots
(1:10) 16-J.Meyers pass deep right to 34-R.Burkhead for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe]. backwards pass from Newton to Meyers before TD pass
U 44 ✓
15.1 mph wind
Ravens closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 23–17. Biggest swing: Q2 1:10, Patriots +10.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ4 6:01(6:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson Aborted. 68-M.Skura FUMBLES at BAL 33, recovered by BAL-8-L.Jackson at BAL 22.
10.1pts
Unnamed on the sheetRavensQ4 1:16(1:16) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to BAL 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
8.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Ravens at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 1 giveaway.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Ravens at +0.05 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Ravens152 of 164 plays carry both curves
(1:10) 16-J.Meyers pass deep right to 34-R.Burkhead for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe]. backwards pass from Newton to Meyers before TD pass
Swing +10.4 for PatriotsExpected points +3.52 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 27 points higher than the market did.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:10NE +10% win prob(1:10) 16-J.Meyers pass deep right to 34-R.Burkhead for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe]. backwards pass from Newton to Meyers before TD pass
4th · 6:01BAL +10% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson Aborted. 68-M.Skura FUMBLES at BAL 33, recovered by BAL-8-L.Jackson at BAL 22.
4th · 1:16BAL +9% win prob(1:16) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to BAL 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
2nd · 11:52NE +9% win prob(11:52) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 34-R.Burkhead for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:36NE +7% win prob(7:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 35-G.Edwards pushed ob at NE 20 for 31 yards (32-D.McCourty).
2nd · 0:14BAL +7% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right intended for 15-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 6. 27-J.Jackson to NE 6 for no gain (15-M.Brown). NE 27-Jackson 5th consecutive game with an interception, new franchise record (D. McCourty & Haynes, 4).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rex Burkhead's 24-yard touchdown catch with 1:10 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Patriots, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Ravens: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.19Patriots: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Ravens: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.36Patriots: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Ravens: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.11Patriots: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 64 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Patriots’s 56 at 34%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Patriots 4.
NoteRavens outgained Patriots 357-310 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's early-down pass rate, 25.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 39.2% in week 1.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate, 64.6%, sat 18.4 points above their season number of 46.2% — they passed early by 2.0 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 20.0% in week 9 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Patriots5.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 23.3 points below their season mean of 48.3% and 2.1 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
65Patrick MekariC · Every snap100%66 snaps
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%66 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%66 snaps
77Bradley BozemanG · Every snap100%66 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
15Marquise BrownWR · Full-time94%62 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation76%50 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation68%45 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
70D.J. FlukerG · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
72Ben PowersG · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Rotational47%31 snaps
27J.K. DobbinsRB · Rotational44%29 snaps
80Miles BoykinWR · Rotational29%19 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational29%19 snaps
21Mark IngramRB · Rotational26%17 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Situational23%15 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jimmy SmithCBJihad WardDECalais CampbellDTL.J. FortOLBTrace McSorleyQB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right intended for 15-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 6. 27-J.Jackson to NE 6 for no gain (15-M.Brown). NE 27-Jackson 5th consecutive game with an interception, new franchise record (D. McCourty & Haynes, 4).
Q2 0:14 · Ravens · 2nd & 4 at NE 38 · gained nothing · -1.72 EP · −12.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 94 yards from the BAL 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
48%
Yards
665
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0571%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR35+0.3226%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.0835%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.3711%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.0138%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1657%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 42
Punt12 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Ravens 34
The period ended13 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Patriots 9
2nd quarter50 plays
Ravens6Patriots0
Ravens7Patriots0
Touchdown2 plays
Ravens7Patriots6
Ravens7Patriots7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Ravens 7
Ravens10Patriots7
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Patriots 6
Ravens10Patriots13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Ravens 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Patriots 38
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Ravens10Patriots19
Ravens10Patriots20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Ravens 4
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Ravens 48
Ravens10Patriots23
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Ravens 2
Ravens16Patriots23
Ravens17Patriots23
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Patriots 18
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 28
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Ravens 34
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 4 to the Patriots 28
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 38
Punt12 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Patriots 45
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Ravens 21
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7
Closing total
44
Ravens moneyline
-318
Patriots moneyline
+272
Ravens closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 40 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the south-east; 0.34 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Patriots 6 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Bill Belichick
NoteWind at 15.1 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
3rd · 3:49NE +7% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left guard to NE 37 for 11 yards (30-J.McCourty, 32-D.McCourty).
3rd · 13:42NE +6% win prob(13:42) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers pushed ob at BAL 8 for 26 yards (24-M.Peters). PENALTY on BAL-24-M.Peters, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at BAL 8.
