2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · Gillette Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

New England PatriotsWinner

BAL -7 upsetU 44 ✓Ravens closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 23–17. Biggest swing: Q2 1:10, NE +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:10BAL — NE NE ball · 2nd & 6BAL 67%

(1:10) 16-J.Meyers pass deep right to 34-R.Burkhead for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe]. backwards pass from Newton to Meyers before TD pass

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:10NE +10% win prob(1:10) 16-J.Meyers pass deep right to 34-R.Burkhead for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe]. backwards pass from Newton to Meyers before TD pass
Q4 · 6:01BAL +10% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson Aborted. 68-M.Skura FUMBLES at BAL 33, recovered by BAL-8-L.Jackson at BAL 22.
Q4 · 1:16BAL +9% win prob(1:16) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to BAL 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q2 · 11:52NE +9% win prob(11:52) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 34-R.Burkhead for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Patriots
Offensive plays	64	56
Total yards	357 (edge)	310
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.05	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	55% (edge)	52%
Dropback rate	63%	34%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.11 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Ravens outgained Patriots 357–310 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

24/34, 249 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.3 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

13/17, 118 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.3 expected points added · +11.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

22 att, 121 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Willie SneadWR

5/7 for 64 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

7/9 for 61 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	6	16	1:47	Punt
2	NE	NE 30	12	29	5:15	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 6	14	94	8:04	Touchdown
4	NE	NE 25	9	60	3:08	Touchdown
5	BAL	BAL 25	12	65	6:14	Turnover on downs
6	NE	NE 25	12	75	4:30	Touchdown
7	BAL	BAL 25	8	37	0:55	Interception
8	NE	NE 6	1	0	0:07	End of half
9	NE	NE 25	6	71	1:43	Touchdown
10	BAL	BAL 27	7	21	3:37	Turnover on downs
11	NE	BAL 37	7	28	3:16	Turnover on downs
12	BAL	BAL 25	13	75	6:16	Touchdown
13	NE	NE 25	5	3	1:54	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 26	4	8	1:49	Punt
15	NE	NE 4	9	24	4:16	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 20	7	29	2:49	Punt
17	NE	NE 18	8	20	3:15	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 17	4	12	1:03	Turnover on downs
19	NE	BAL 21	1	0	0:02	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 94 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	24/34	249	2	1	2	4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Lamar Jackson	11	55	5.0	1.4
Gus Edwards	7	42	6.0	4.9
J.K. Dobbins	5	13	2.6	-1.9
Mark Ingram	5	5	1.0	-5.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Willie Snead	5	7	64	2	21%	4.3
Mark Andrews	7	9	61	0	26%	1.0
Devin Duvernay	3	3	45	0	9%	3.3
Gus Edwards	1	1	31	0	3%	2.3
Mark Ingram	2	2	24	0	6%	1.5
Marquise Brown	2	7	14	0	21%	-4.9
Nick Boyle	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.0
Justice Hill	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4
Patrick Ricard	1	1	2	0	3%	0.6
J.K. Dobbins	1	2	1	0	6%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Patrick Queen	4	4	0.0
Derek Wolfe	3	4	0.0
Chuck Clark	4	2	0.0
DeShon Elliott	4	2	0.0
Marlon Humphrey	4	0	0.0
Matt Judon	3	0	1.0
Marcus Peters	3	0	0.0
Justin Ellis	1	2	0.0
Jaylon Ferguson	1	2	0.0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	1	0.0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	13/17	118	1	0	1	3.3
Jakobi Meyers	1/1	24	1	0	0	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	22	121	5.5	0	1.3
Rex Burkhead	6	31	5.2	0	1.5
Cam Newton	11	21	1.9	1	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	5	7	59	0	41%	2.9
Rex Burkhead	4	5	35	2	29%	2.5
Jakob Johnson	2	2	20	0	12%	2.6
Ryan Izzo	1	1	20	0	6%	1.7
James White	2	2	8	0	12%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyle Dugger	6	5	0.0	0
Terez Hall	4	2	0.0	0
Chase Winovich	5	1	0.0	0
Adrian Phillips	3	2	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	3	1	0.0	0
Devin McCourty	2	2	0.0	1
Jason McCourty	3	0	0.0	1
Lawrence Guy	2	1	0.0	0
John Simon	1	2	1.0	1
Adam Butler	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7
Closing total: 44
BAL moneyline: -318
NE moneyline: +272

Ravens closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 40 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: BAL 7 days · NE 6 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Bill Belichick