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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 4:18 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · State Farm Stadium
Final
BillsBuffalo30
BY 2final margin
CardinalsArizona32
Buffalo Bills 30 at Arizona Cardinals 32. Final.
Cardinals -3 no coverO 55.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 10
Arizona Cardinals 32, Bills 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:11, 1st and 10, on DeAndre Hopkins — 71.5 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:11 · 1st and 10
DeAndre Hopkins
Cardinals
(:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cardinals closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Arizona Cardinals 32–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:11, Cardinals +71.5% win probability on one snap.
71.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dre KirkpatrickCardinalsQ4 4:38(4:38) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Kirkpatrick at ARI 41. 20-D.Kirkpatrick to ARI 41 for no gain (13-G.Davis).
20.5pts
Stefon DiggsBillsQ4 0:39(:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Bills at 8 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Cardinals at 5 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Bills189 of 202 plays carry both curves
(:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +71.5 for CardinalsExpected points +5.85 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 2 points higher than the market did.play 199
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:11ARI +72% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:39ARI +23% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:38BUF +20% win prob(4:38) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Kirkpatrick at ARI 41. 20-D.Kirkpatrick to ARI 41 for no gain (13-G.Davis).
4th · 0:02BUF +19% win prob5-Z.Gonzalez kicks 41 yards from ARI 35 to BUF 24. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 27 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at BUF 28.
4th · 9:26BUF +15% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 11-L.Fitzgerald INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF 15. 21-J.Poyer ran ob at BUF 29 for 14 yards (10-D.Hopkins). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 1:22ARI +15% win prob(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 11-C.Beasley to ARI 30 for 17 yards (33-B.Murphy).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DeAndre Hopkins's 43-yard touchdown catch with 0:11 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:57Zane Gonzalez·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+30–3
4th0:11DeAndre Hopkins·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Kyler Murrayfrom Kyler Murray · two-point no goodLead never changed again+630–32
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryCardinals
Bills3–5Cardinals
369Total yards453
5.4Yards per play6.4
50%Success rate49%
46%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays11
20First downs26
0Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Cardinals ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Bills: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.06Cardinals: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Bills: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.12Cardinals: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Bills: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.02Cardinals: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 68 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 71 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Cardinals 5.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.4% in week 9 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 33 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Cardinals7.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 7.8%, 8.8 points below their season mean of 16.6% and 1.3 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
66Brian WintersG · Every snap100%73 snaps
75Daryl WilliamsT · Every snap100%73 snaps
65Ike BoettgerG · Every snap100%73 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%73 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Every snap100%73 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time95%69 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation79%58 snaps
15John BrownWR · Heavy rotation74%54 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
20Zack MossRB · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
13Gabriel DavisWR · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Rotational47%34 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Situational16%12 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational12%9 snaps
86Reggie GilliamTE · Situational1%1 snap
18Andre RobertsWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Harrison PhillipsDTJake FrommQBT.J. YeldonRBTaiwan JonesRBCody FordT
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Mitch MorseCMatt BarkleyQB
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
64J.R. SweezyG · Every snap100%73 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%73 snaps
67Justin PughG · Every snap100%73 snaps
74D.J. HumphriesT · Every snap100%73 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
52Mason ColeC · Every snap100%73 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Full-time96%70 snaps
11Larry FitzgeraldWR · Full-time90%66 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation74%54 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
41Kenyan DrakeRB · Heavy rotation52%38 snaps
29Chase EdmondsRB · Rotational49%36 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational48%35 snaps
81Darrell DanielsTE · Situational19%14 snaps
17Andy IsabellaWR · Situational15%11 snaps
79Josh JonesT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jordan PhillipsDTBrett HundleyQBEno BenjaminRBDeionte ThompsonSSJoshua MilesTJustin MurrayTKeeSean JohnsonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass+69% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:11 · Cardinals · 1st & 10 at BUF 43 · gained 43 · +5.85 EP · +69.3% win probability
187 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 202 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 202 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 78 yards from the BUF 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
202 of 202 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
202
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
45%
Yards
822
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.0575%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0962%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.0923%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9+0.6778%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR8+0.2963%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
202 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
202 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Bills0Cardinals3
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Bills 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldSix linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Bills6Cardinals3
Bills7Cardinals3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Cardinals 12
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 26
The period ended8 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Cardinals 42
2nd quarter59 plays
Bills10Cardinals3
Field goal3 plays, from the Cardinals 45 to the Cardinals 36
Bills10Cardinals6
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bills 21
Bills13Cardinals6
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Cardinals 34
Bills13Cardinals9
Field goal20 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bills 3
Bills16Cardinals9
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Cardinals 41
3rd quarter51 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bills 45
Fumble lost1 play
Bills22Cardinals9
Bills23Cardinals9
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Cardinals 22
Bills23Cardinals15
Bills23Cardinals16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bills 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 18
Bills23Cardinals19
Field goal4 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 27
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bills23Cardinals25
Bills23Cardinals26
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Bills 15
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter55 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the Bills 30
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Bills 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 2 to the Cardinals 11
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Bills29Cardinals26
Bills30Cardinals26
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Cardinals 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.9 seconds
Bills30Cardinals32
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bills 43
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
