2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · State Farm Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Arizona CardinalsWinner

ARI -3 no coverO 55.5 ✓DomeCardinals closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Arizona Cardinals 32–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:11, ARI +72% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:11BUF — ARI ARI ball · 1st & 10BUF 85%

(:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:11ARI +72% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:39ARI +23% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:38BUF +20% win prob(4:38) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Kirkpatrick at ARI 41. 20-D.Kirkpatrick to ARI 41 for no gain (13-G.Davis).
Q4 · 0:02BUF +19% win prob5-Z.Gonzalez kicks 41 yards from ARI 35 to BUF 24. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 27 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at BUF 28.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Cardinals
Offensive plays	68	71
Total yards	369	453 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.01	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	50% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	75%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	2

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

32/49, 284 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

22/32, 245 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.9 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Kenyan DrakeRB

16 att, 100 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

11 att, 61 yds, 2 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

7/12 for 127 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Cole BeasleyWR

11/13 for 109 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 20	14	75	5:07	Turnover on downs
2	BUF	BUF 37	9	63	3:30	Touchdown
3	ARI	ARI 22	5	3	2:00	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 33	10	31	5:21	Turnover on downs
5	ARI	ARI 25	11	56	5:17	Turnover on downs
6	BUF	BUF 30	9	38	3:00	Turnover on downs
7	ARI	ARI 25	17	72	4:21	Turnover on downs
8	BUF	BUF 25	8	29	1:24	Turnover on downs
9	BUF	BUF 10	9	35	3:25	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 20	1	2	0:08	Fumble
11	BUF	ARI 37	4	32	1:35	Touchdown
12	ARI	ARI 25	11	85	4:08	Touchdown
13	BUF	BUF 12	5	6	1:09	Punt
14	ARI	BUF 30	4	3	1:30	Turnover on downs
15	BUF	BUF 25	4	14	1:52	Interception
16	ARI	ARI 44	4	47	1:05	Touchdown
17	BUF	BUF 25	8	5	3:17	Punt
18	ARI	ARI 32	5	38	2:34	Interception
19	BUF	BUF 29	5	43	2:37	Punt
20	ARI	ARI 2	4	3	2:02	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 48	1	0	0:07	Interception
22	ARI	ARI 41	4	-6	0:56	Punt
23	BUF	BUF 22	13	73	3:01	Touchdown
24	ARI	ARI 25	6	75	0:32	Touchdown
25	BUF	—	1	0	0:02	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	32/49	284	2	2	0	-0.6
Isaiah McKenzie	1/1	12	1	0	0	2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Allen	7	38	5.4	1.5
Zack Moss	7	20	2.9	-2.0
Devin Singletary	4	15	3.8	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Beasley	11	13	109	1	29%	8.4
Stefon Diggs	10	10	93	1	22%	3.8
John Brown	6	8	72	0	18%	5.9
Dawson Knox	2	4	16	0	9%	-3.5
Josh Allen	1	1	12	1	2%	2.3
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.6
Gabe Davis	0	3	0	0	7%	-5.7
Zack Moss	1	2	-3	0	4%	-1.0
Devin Singletary	1	3	-5	0	7%	-3.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
A.J. Klein	9	1	1.0	0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	7	3	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	7	1	1.0	0	0
Dane Jackson	6	2	0.0	0	1
Micah Hyde	4	2	0.0	0	1
Ed Oliver	3	2	0.0	0	1
Jordan Poyer	3	1	0.0	1	2
Trent Murphy	4	0	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	3	0	0.0	0	0
Siran Neal	2	0	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	22/32	245	1	1	3	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenyan Drake	16	100	6.3	0	-0.9
Kyler Murray	11	61	5.5	2	0.0
Chase Edmonds	8	56	7.0	0	1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	7	12	127	1	38%	4.2
Dan Arnold	4	4	34	0	13%	6.0
Christian Kirk	4	6	27	0	19%	1.1
Chase Edmonds	3	3	21	0	9%	1.5
Andy Isabella	1	1	14	0	3%	0.3
Larry Fitzgerald	2	5	13	0	16%	-7.2
Kenyan Drake	1	1	9	0	3%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Budda Baker	7	2	0	1
Jordan Hicks	5	3	0	0
Jalen Thompson	5	1	0	0
Byron Murphy	5	1	0	0
Haason Reddick	3	1	0	0
Angelo Blackson	2	2	0	0
Isaiah Simmons	2	2	0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	3	0	1	1
De'Vondre Campbell	1	2	0	0
Trevon Coley	2	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -3
Closing total: 55.5
BUF moneyline: +138
ARI moneyline: -153

Cardinals closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 62 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: BUF 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Kliff Kingsbury