2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · Heinz Field

Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -6.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓21 mph windSteelers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Pittsburgh Steelers 36–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:38, PIT +13% win probability on one snap. Played in 21 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:38CIN — PIT PIT ball · 4th & 5PIT 65%

(13:38) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CIN 19, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 32 for 13 yards (92-O.Adeniyi, 44-D.Watt). FUMBLES (92-O.Adeniyi), RECOVERED by PIT-24-B.Snell at CIN 32.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:38PIT +13% win prob(13:38) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CIN 19, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 32 for 13 yards (92-O.Adeniyi, 44-D.Watt). FUMBLES (92-O.Adeniyi), RECOVERED by PIT-24-B.Snell at CIN 32.
Q2 · 10:40PIT +8% win prob(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:08CIN +5% win prob(12:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to CIN 23 for 1 yard (90-K.Kareem).
Q1 · 13:42CIN +5% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 11-C.Claypool [58-C.Lawson]. Coverage by 27-Brown.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Steelers
Offensive plays	64	67
Total yards	324	377 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.21	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	34%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	0.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.36
Third downs	0/13	6/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	16	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

27/46, 333 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

10.6 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

21/40, 213 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-10.9 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

7 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

13 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

6/11 for 116 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

7/9 for 115 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 15	7	18	1:36	Punt
2	PIT	CIN 32	4	9	2:01	Turnover on downs
3	CIN	CIN 25	5	8	1:05	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 34	4	11	2:00	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 12	4	3	1:03	Punt
6	PIT	CIN 46	6	34	2:25	Turnover on downs
7	CIN	CIN 21	5	2	1:58	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 26	4	74	1:01	Touchdown
9	CIN	CIN 19	4	30	1:42	Fumble
10	PIT	PIT 45	4	8	1:11	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 10	9	90	3:21	Touchdown
12	PIT	PIT 22	9	48	3:14	Touchdown
13	CIN	CIN 25	7	19	3:15	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 16	8	57	2:20	Turnover on downs
15	CIN	CIN 22	9	51	1:48	Turnover on downs
16	CIN	CIN 25	6	14	1:37	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 24	4	8	2:27	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 15	6	18	2:22	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 33	13	67	4:12	Touchdown
20	CIN	CIN 25	5	0	0:25	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 25	5	7	1:46	Punt
22	CIN	CIN 20	4	6	1:25	Punt
23	PIT	PIT 26	4	9	1:04	Punt
24	CIN	CIN 3	4	5	1:30	Punt
25	PIT	CIN 15	6	15	2:41	Touchdown
26	CIN	CIN 25	11	56	5:26	Turnover on downs
27	PIT	PIT 24	5	12	2:30	Punt
28	CIN	CIN 45	5	22	2:35	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 90 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	21/40	213	1	0	4	-10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Samaje Perine	7	48	6.9	1.1
Shawn Williams	1	39	39.0	4.8
Giovani Bernard	8	30	3.8	-1.6
Trayveon Williams	5	22	4.4	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	7	9	115	1	24%	5.7
Tyler Boyd	6	8	41	0	21%	-1.5
Auden Tate	2	4	24	0	11%	-3.6
Giovani Bernard	4	7	17	0	18%	-3.7
Drew Sample	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.1
Samaje Perine	1	1	7	0	3%	0.4
Mike Thomas	0	2	0	0	5%	-2.0
A.J. Green	0	5	0	0	13%	-4.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Tony Brown	6	3	1
Germaine Pratt	5	3	0
Jessie Bates	5	2	2
William Jackson	3	1	0
Mackensie Alexander	2	2	0
Vonn Bell	2	1	2
Sam Hubbard	1	2	1
Logan Wilson	1	2	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	1	2	0
Cethan Carter	1	1	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	27/46	333	4	0	0	10.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	13	36	2.8	-3.7
Benny Snell	3	12	4.0	-0.6
Ben Roethlisberger	1	0	0.0	-0.5
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	-1	-1.0	-0.6
Chase Claypool	2	-3	-1.5	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	6	11	116	1	24%	4.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster	9	13	77	1	28%	4.1
Chase Claypool	4	10	56	2	22%	1.6
Eric Ebron	2	6	38	0	13%	-1.5
James Washington	2	2	30	0	4%	1.8
James Conner	2	2	12	0	4%	-0.0
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	2	4	0	4%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Terrell Edmunds	4	3	0.0	0
Cameron Sutton	4	0	0.0	0
Robert Spillane	3	1	1.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	0	0.0	0
Joe Haden	3	1	0.0	3
Vince Williams	1	3	0.0	0
Bud Dupree	2	1	1.0	0
T.J. Watt	3	0	2.0	0
Tyson Alualu	1	2	0.0	0
Stephon Tuitt	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -6.5
Closing total: 45.5
CIN moneyline: +255
PIT moneyline: -297

Steelers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 46 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 21 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CIN 14 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 21 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.