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Cincinnati Bengals 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers 36. Final.
Steelers -6.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 36, Bengals 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:38, 4th and 5 — 12.8 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:38 · 4th and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
(13:38) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CIN 19, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 32 for 13 yards (92-O.Adeniyi, 44-D.Watt). FUMBLES (92-O.Adeniyi), RECOVERED by PIT-24-B.Snell at CIN 32.
24.5 mph wind
Steelers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 26.
Pittsburgh Steelers 36–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:38, Steelers +12.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 24.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
12.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
JuJu Smith-SchusterBengalsQ1 12:08(12:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to CIN 23 for 1 yard (90-K.Kareem).
4.8pts
Tee HigginsBengalsQ2 10:40(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Steelers won this one — 6 of 16 on third down, against Bengals at 0 of 13 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.38 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.21 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Bengals180 of 189 plays carry both curves
(13:38) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CIN 19, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 32 for 13 yards (92-O.Adeniyi, 44-D.Watt). FUMBLES (92-O.Adeniyi), RECOVERED by PIT-24-B.Snell at CIN 32.
Swing +12.8 for SteelersExpected points +4.90 for SteelersThe model had Bengals 15 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:38PIT +13% win prob(13:38) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CIN 19, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 32 for 13 yards (92-O.Adeniyi, 44-D.Watt). FUMBLES (92-O.Adeniyi), RECOVERED by PIT-24-B.Snell at CIN 32.
2nd · 10:40PIT +8% win prob(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:08CIN +5% win prob(12:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to CIN 23 for 1 yard (90-K.Kareem).
1st · 13:42CIN +5% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 11-C.Claypool [58-C.Lawson]. Coverage by 27-Brown.
2nd · 7:27PIT +4% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-C.Lawson].
2nd · 13:32PIT +4% win prob(13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to PIT 22 for 54 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 41-yard field goal with 11:28 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:28Chris Boswell·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.CanadayLead never changed again+30–3
1st4:53Chris Boswell·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+30–6
1st1:54Diontae Johnson·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point no good+60–12
2nd10:40Tee Higgins·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+77–12
2nd7:27JuJu Smith-Schuster·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+77–19
2nd1:51Chris Boswell·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+37–22
3rd4:26Chase Claypool·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+77–29
4th10:34Chase Claypool·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+77–36
4th5:09Randy Bullock·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+310–36
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categorySteelers
Bengals1–8Steelers
324Total yards377
5.1Yards per play5.6
34%Success rate40%
0%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays5
16First downs20
4Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Steelers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Bengals: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.05Steelers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.38Bengals: −0.38 expected points added per play
+0.23Steelers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Bengals: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.36Steelers: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 64 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Steelers’s 67 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 2, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
PIT's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 10.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 9.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 33 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Steelers20.9%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.3 points below their season mean of 31.3% and 1.4 times their own 21.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:40 · Bengals · 4th & goal at PIT 2 · gained 2 · +3.92 EP · +14.0% win probability
178 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 90 yards from the CIN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
38%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.2275%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.2872%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1733%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR8-0.51100%
Steelers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter51 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 33
Bengals0Steelers3
Field goal4 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Bengals 23
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 15
Bengals0Steelers6
Field goal6 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Bengals 12
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 23
Bengals0Steelers12
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Bengals 12
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Bengals 47
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Bengals6Steelers12
Bengals7Steelers12
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Steelers 2
Bengals7Steelers18
Bengals7Steelers19
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Bengals 5
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 48
Bengals7Steelers22
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Bengals 25
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Steelers 35
3rd quarter49 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 39
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 32
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Bengals 33
Bengals7Steelers28
Bengals7Steelers29
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Bengals 11
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 47
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 26
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 3 to the Bengals 8
Bengals7Steelers35
Bengals7Steelers36
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Bengals 4
Bengals10Steelers36
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 12
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 26
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Steelers 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -6.5
Closing total
45.5
Bengals moneyline
+255
Steelers moneyline
-297
Steelers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 46 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; a real wind at 25 mph out of the west; 0.08 in of precipitation; slight rain.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Bengals 14 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Mike Tomlin
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 24.5 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 2:52PIT +4% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 28 for 46 yards (22-W.Jackson III) [58-C.Lawson].
1st · 0:17CIN +4% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins to PIT 46 for 9 yards (20-C.Sutton). FUMBLES (20-C.Sutton), RECOVERED by PIT-22-S.Nelson at PIT 45.
Bengalscategory by categorySteelers
Bengals0
Steelers3
