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Las Vegas Raiders 37, Broncos 12 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:12, 2nd and 9, on Jeff Heath — 12.6 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:12 · 2nd and 9
Jeff Heath
Raiders
(:12) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-J.Heath at LV 0. 38-J.Heath to LV 18 for 18 yards (66-D.Risner).
Dome
Raiders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Las Vegas Raiders 37–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:12, Raiders +12.6% win probability on one snap.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tim PatrickBroncosQ2 0:30(:30) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 81-T.Patrick to LV 23 for 14 yards (50-N.Morrow) [96-C.Ferrell]. PENALTY on LV-96-C.Ferrell, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at LV 23.
9.0pts
Daniel CarlsonRaidersQ3 9:20(9:20) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
10.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 5 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.32 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.12 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.38 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Broncos at 4 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Broncos177 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:12) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-J.Heath at LV 0. 38-J.Heath to LV 18 for 18 yards (66-D.Risner).
Swing +12.6 for RaidersExpected points +3.65 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 91
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:12DEN +13% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-J.Heath at LV 0. 38-J.Heath to LV 18 for 18 yards (66-D.Risner).
3rd · 9:20LV +10% win prob(9:20) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
2nd · 0:30LV +9% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 81-T.Patrick to LV 23 for 14 yards (50-N.Morrow) [96-C.Ferrell]. PENALTY on LV-96-C.Ferrell, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at LV 23.
2nd · 10:32LV +7% win prob(10:32) 3-D.Lock pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick to LV 23 for 27 yards (27-T.Mullen).
2nd · 1:07LV +7% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 13-K.Hamler pushed ob at LV 37 for 27 yards (29-L.Joyner).
3rd · 14:15LV +7% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 15-N.Agholor to LV 31 for 8 yards (29-B.Callahan).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 11-yard rushing touchdown with 9:50 left in the 1st put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:50Josh Jacobs·11-yd TD run11-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st7:17Brandon McManus·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–7
2nd8:20Brandon McManus·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–7
2nd1:48Daniel Carlson·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+36–10
3rd9:20Daniel Carlson·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+36–13
Raiders ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.32Broncos: −0.32 expected points added per play
+0.10Raiders: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.38Broncos: −0.38 expected points added per play
+0.12Raiders: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Broncos: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.08Raiders: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 69 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Raiders’s 64 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Raiders 6.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 7.1% in week 2.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 9.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
low through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
LV's pass rate over expected, −13.0 pts, is past their previous low of −9.9 pts in week 8 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 23 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −14.9 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−2.28× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Raiders14.0%
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 14.9% and 2.3 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
76Calvin AndersonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
61Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%71 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%71 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%71 snaps
3Drew LockQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
13K.J. HamlerWR · Full-time87%62 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Full-time86%61 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Full-time85%60 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Heavy rotation59%42 snaps
25Melvin GordonRB · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
17DaeSean HamiltonWR · Rotational44%31 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Rotational30%21 snaps
84Troy FumagalliTE · Situational17%12 snaps
28Royce FreemanRB · Situational14%10 snaps
88Nick VannettTE · Situational14%10 snaps
35Jeremy CoxRB · Situational6%4 snaps
11Diontae SpencerWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Kevin ToliverCBNetane MutiGJoseph JonesILBJeff DriskelQBJake RodgersTTyrie ClevelandWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Brett RypienQBDemar DotsonT
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Brandon ParkerT · Every snap100%72 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%72 snaps
71Denzelle GoodG · Every snap100%72 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%72 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Full-time89%64 snaps
70Sam YoungT · Full-time82%59 snaps
11Henry RuggsWR · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Heavy rotation60%43 snaps
28Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation60%43 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational47%34 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Rotational36%26 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Rotational35%25 snaps
89Bryan EdwardsWR · Rotational28%20 snaps
78Patrick OmamehG · Situational18%13 snaps
45Alec IngoldFB · Situational17%12 snaps
12Zay JonesWR · Situational11%8 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Amik RobertsonCBMaurice HurstDTDaniel RossDTJohn SimpsonGMarcus MariotaQBTheo RiddickRBKolton MillerT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lock pass−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:12) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-J.Heath at LV 0. 38-J.Heath to LV 18 for 18 yards (66-D.Risner).
Q2 0:12 · Broncos · 2nd & 9 at LV 10 · gained nothing · -3.65 EP · −15.3% win probability
175 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 81 yards from the LV 13 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
40%
Yards
670
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.3076%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1363%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14+0.247%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1818%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.1217%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2380%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 3 to the Broncos 8
Broncos0Raiders6
Broncos0Raiders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Broncos 11
Broncos3Raiders7
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Raiders 32
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
Intercepted9 plays, from the Broncos 7 to the Broncos 36
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Broncos 31
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 2 to the Broncos 11
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 32
Broncos6Raiders7
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Raiders 15
Broncos6Raiders10
Field goal16 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Broncos 6
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 5
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Broncos6Raiders13
Field goal15 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Broncos 28
Punt5 plays
Broncos6Raiders19
Broncos6Raiders20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Broncos 5
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Intercepted1 play
Broncos6Raiders23
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 4
Punt7 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Broncos 43
Fumble lost1 play
Broncos6Raiders29
Broncos6Raiders30
Touchdown2 plays
Broncos12Raiders30
Touchdown15 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 6
Broncos12Raiders36
Broncos12Raiders37
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Broncos 23
Intercepted8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 25
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
