2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium

Denver Broncos

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

LV -3.5 ✓U 50.5 ✓DomeRaiders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Las Vegas Raiders 37–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:12, DEN +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:12DEN — LV DEN ball · 2nd & 9LV 60%

(:12) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-J.Heath at LV 0. 38-J.Heath to LV 18 for 18 yards (66-D.Risner).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:12DEN +13% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-J.Heath at LV 0. 38-J.Heath to LV 18 for 18 yards (66-D.Risner).
Q3 · 9:20LV +10% win prob(9:20) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q2 · 0:30LV +9% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 81-T.Patrick to LV 23 for 14 yards (50-N.Morrow) [96-C.Ferrell]. PENALTY on LV-96-C.Ferrell, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at LV 23.
Q2 · 10:32LV +7% win prob(10:32) 3-D.Lock pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick to LV 23 for 27 yards (27-T.Mullen).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Raiders
Offensive plays	69	64
Total yards	313	359 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.32	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	38%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	5	0 (edge)

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.32.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

23/47, 257 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

-13.0 expected points added · -16.8% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

16/25, 154 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.0 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

21 att, 112 yds, 2 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Devontae BookerRB

16 att, 81 yds, 2 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

4/8 for 68 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Tim PatrickWR

4/6 for 61 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 3	5	5	1:34	Punt
2	LV	LV 38	8	62	3:42	Touchdown
3	DEN	DEN 26	9	42	2:33	Turnover on downs
4	LV	LV 25	5	7	1:33	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 7	9	25	4:18	Interception
6	LV	DEN 39	4	4	1:42	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 2	4	0	2:21	Defensive touchdown
8	LV	LV 29	4	3	0:55	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 29	8	61	3:07	Turnover on downs
10	LV	LV 13	14	76	6:31	Turnover on downs
11	DEN	DEN 25	12	63	1:39	Interception
12	LV	LV 18	1	0	0:05	End of half
13	LV	LV 20	13	52	5:47	Turnover on downs
14	DEN	DEN 26	5	-3	0:56	Punt
15	LV	LV 22	12	83	7:41	Touchdown
16	DEN	DEN 25	3	4	0:48	Interception
17	LV	DEN 11	4	7	1:26	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 25	5	0	0:32	Punt
19	LV	DEN 48	4	10	2:37	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 7	1	6	0:08	Fumble
21	LV	DEN 7	2	7	0:05	Touchdown
22	DEN	DEN 25	14	60	3:50	Touchdown
23	LV	DEN 48	9	48	4:16	Touchdown
24	DEN	DEN 25	8	50	1:36	Interception
25	LV	LV 19	1	0	0:18	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 83 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	23/47	257	1	4	2	-13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	11	46	4.2	-0.5
Royce Freeman	2	11	5.5	0.4
Drew Lock	2	7	3.5	-0.8
Phillip Lindsay	4	2	0.5	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	4	8	68	0	18%	-1.1
Tim Patrick	4	6	61	0	13%	3.9
K.J. Hamler	4	10	50	0	22%	-3.6
DaeSean Hamilton	4	6	33	1	13%	-0.8
Noah Fant	3	7	18	0	16%	-8.7
Royce Freeman	2	2	15	0	4%	0.1
Troy Fumagalli	2	3	12	0	7%	-2.5
Melvin Gordon	0	2	0	0	4%	-0.7
Phillip Lindsay	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Alexander Johnson	9	5	0
Josey Jewell	5	5	0
Justin Simmons	5	4	0
A.J. Bouye	6	0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	4	1	0
Kareem Jackson	2	3	0
Malik Reed	1	2	0
Josh Watson	3	0	0
Bryce Callahan	3	0	1
Essang Bassey	2	0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	16/25	154	0	0	0	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	21	112	5.3	2	0.1
Devontae Booker	16	81	5.1	2	2.9
Derek Carr	4	10	2.5	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	3	5	37	23%	3.1
Henry Ruggs	3	4	31	18%	0.7
Hunter Renfrow	2	2	30	9%	2.7
Josh Jacobs	4	4	24	18%	0.3
Bryan Edwards	1	1	16	5%	1.5
Nelson Agholor	1	4	8	18%	-1.2
Zay Jones	1	1	6	5%	-0.0
Devontae Booker	1	1	2	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Kwiatkoski	6	2	0.0	1	2
Trayvon Mullen	5	1	0.0	0	0
Erik Harris	3	3	0.0	0	1
Nicholas Morrow	4	1	1.0	0	2
Johnathan Abram	5	0	0.0	0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	4	1	0.0	0	1
Maxx Crosby	2	1	1.0	0	0
Maliek Collins	2	1	0.0	0	0
Arden Key	2	0	0.0	0	0
David Irving	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -3.5
Closing total: 50.5
DEN moneyline: +168
LV moneyline: -188

Raiders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 49 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: DEN 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Jon Gruden

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.