2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Houston Texans

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -4.5 no coverU 46 ✓25 mph windBrowns closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Cleveland Browns 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:46, CLE +11% win probability on one snap. Played in 25 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:46HOU — CLE CLE ball · 1st & 10CLE 80%

(2:46) 27-K.Hunt left guard to CLE 33 for 19 yards (21-B.Roby).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:46CLE +11% win prob(2:46) 27-K.Hunt left guard to CLE 33 for 19 yards (21-B.Roby).
Q2 · 0:32HOU +9% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 80-J.Landry.
Q3 · 3:37HOU +8% win prob(3:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q1 · 8:36HOU +8% win prob(8:36) 6-B.Mayfield Aborted. 64-J.Tretter FUMBLES at HOU 7, recovered by CLE-6-B.Mayfield at HOU 21. 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CLE-6-B.Mayfield, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at HOU 7.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Browns
Offensive plays	53	60
Total yards	244	358 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.01	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	43%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	37%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.19 (edge)
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

20/30, 163 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.7 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

12/20, 132 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.3 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

19 att, 126 yds, 1 TD

5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

19 att, 104 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Rashard HigginsWR

3/4 for 48 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Randall CobbWR

3/5 for 41 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	13	63	6:33	Turnover on downs
2	HOU	HOU 33	5	2	2:08	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 22	4	4	1:31	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 29	14	67	6:54	Turnover on downs
5	CLE	CLE 4	6	25	3:21	Punt
6	HOU	CLE 49	10	24	5:13	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 4	11	59	3:55	Turnover on downs
8	HOU	HOU 37	3	4	0:25	End of half
9	HOU	HOU 13	6	23	1:03	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 20	6	16	3:22	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 29	13	44	7:02	Turnover on downs
12	CLE	CLE 36	10	65	5:01	Touchdown
13	HOU	HOU 25	5	5	1:03	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 20	9	30	4:38	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 10	8	75	2:52	Touchdown
16	CLE	CLE 3	10	96	4:59	End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 96 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a end of game.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	20/30	163	1	0	2	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Duke Johnson	14	54	3.9	0	-1.7
Deshaun Watson	8	36	4.5	0	1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Randall Cobb	3	5	41	0	18%	1.4
Brandin Cooks	6	8	39	0	29%	1.0
Will Fuller	5	8	38	0	29%	0.3
Pharaoh Brown	2	2	21	1	7%	2.7
Darren Fells	1	1	15	0	4%	1.1
Kenny Stills	1	1	6	0	4%	1.4
Jordan Akins	1	1	5	0	4%	0.1
Duke Johnson	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.4
C.J. Prosise	1	1	-2	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Zach Cunningham	9	5	0
Tyrell Adams	5	2	0
Vernon Hargreaves	4	2	0
J.J. Watt	3	2	0
Eric Murray	3	1	0
Justin Reid	2	2	0
Whitney Mercilus	2	2	0
Brandon Dunn	2	1	0
Bradley Roby	3	0	0
Carlos Watkins	1	1	1

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	12/20	132	0	0	1	-3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	19	126	6.6	1	5.3
Kareem Hunt	19	104	5.5	0	1.9
Baker Mayfield	3	1	0.3	0	-6.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Rashard Higgins	3	4	48	21%	4.2
Jarvis Landry	3	5	29	26%	-0.4
Kareem Hunt	3	4	28	21%	-0.2
Donovan Peoples-Jones	2	2	16	11%	0.2
Austin Hooper	1	2	11	11%	0.2
Nick Chubb	0	1	0	5%	-1.7
KhaDarel Hodge	0	1	0	5%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
B.J. Goodson	4	2	0.0	1
Myles Garrett	4	2	0.5	0
Ronnie Harrison	6	0	0.0	1
Sheldon Richardson	2	4	1.0	0
Denzel Ward	5	0	0.0	0
Kevin Johnson	2	1	0.0	0
Sione Takitaki	3	0	0.0	0
Andrew Sendejo	2	1	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	2	1	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	1	1	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -4.5
Closing total: 46
HOU moneyline: +192
CLE moneyline: -217

Browns closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 17 — under by 29.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 25 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: HOU 7 days · CLE 14 days
Coaches: Romeo Crennel vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 25 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.