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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Cleveland Browns 10, Texans 7 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:46, 1st and 10, on Kareem Hunt — 10.5 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
25 mph wind
Browns closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Cleveland Browns 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:46, Browns +10.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 25 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:46 · 1st and 10
Kareem Hunt
Browns
(2:46) 27-K.Hunt left guard to CLE 33 for 19 yards (21-B.Roby).
10.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Baker MayfieldTexansQ2 0:32(:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 80-J.Landry.
9.2pts
Ka'imi FairbairnBrownsQ3 3:37(3:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
8.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Texans at 3 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.19 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Texans143 of 153 plays carry both curves
(2:46) 27-K.Hunt left guard to CLE 33 for 19 yards (21-B.Roby).
Swing +10.5 for BrownsExpected points +0.71 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 145
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:46CLE +11% win prob(2:46) 27-K.Hunt left guard to CLE 33 for 19 yards (21-B.Roby).
2nd · 0:32HOU +9% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 80-J.Landry.
3rd · 3:37HOU +8% win prob(3:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
1st · 8:36HOU +8% win prob(8:36) 6-B.Mayfield Aborted. 64-J.Tretter FUMBLES at HOU 7, recovered by CLE-6-B.Mayfield at HOU 21. 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CLE-6-B.Mayfield, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at HOU 7.
3rd · 2:12CLE +8% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 82-R.Higgins ran ob at CLE 49 for 21 yards.
2nd · 12:59HOU +8% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle to CLE 4 for -2 yards (95-M.Garrett).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cody Parkey's 41-yard field goal with 8:31 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:31Cody Parkey·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+30–3
Browns ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Texans: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.05Browns: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Texans: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.19Browns: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Texans: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.19Browns: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 53 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Browns’s 60 at 37%. Red-zone trips: Texans 2, Browns 3.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CLE's pass rate over expected, −19.8 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −15.5 pts in week 3.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
CLE's early-down pass rate, 25.5%, is past their previous low of 34.0% in week 3 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Browns8.8%
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -19.8 pts, 15.9 points below their season mean of -3.9 pts and 2.0 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
73Zach FultonG · Every snap100%57 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%57 snaps
74Max ScharpingT · Every snap100%57 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%57 snaps
4Deshaun WatsonQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
66Nick MartinC · Every snap100%57 snaps
15Will FullerWR · Full-time96%55 snaps
13Brandin CooksWR · Full-time96%55 snaps
25Duke JohnsonRB · Full-time95%54 snaps
87Darren FellsTE · Heavy rotation60%34 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Heavy rotation56%32 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational42%24 snaps
85Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational32%18 snaps
12Kenny StillsWR · Situational14%8 snaps
24C.J. ProsiseRB · Situational4%2 snaps
38Buddy HowellRB · Situational2%1 snap
44Cullen GillaspiaRB · Situational2%1 snap
63Roderick JohnsonT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Charles OmenihuDESenio KelemeteGJosh McCownQBCharlie HeckTIsaiah CoulterWRKeke CouteeWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
AJ McCarronQB
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
71Jedrick WillsT · Every snap100%65 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%65 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%65 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap100%65 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Full-time85%55 snaps
12Khadarel HodgeWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
82Rashard HigginsWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Rotational43%28 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Rotational35%23 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational25%16 snaps
31Andy JanovichFB · Situational23%15 snaps
Inactive · 6
Robert JacksonCBJoe JacksonDEJacob PhillipsOLBDontrell HilliardRBJovante MoffattSSTaywan TaylorWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Ka'imi Fairbairn−16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q3 3:37 · Texans · 4th & 2 at CLE 27 · gained nothing · -4.51 EP · −15.7% win probability
141 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 94 yards from the CLE 3 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
599
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.0563%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.1357%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1656%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14+0.4614%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5345%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.2913%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.4920%
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Texans0Browns3
Field goal14 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Texans 7
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 41
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 26
The period ended10 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Browns 19
2nd quarter43 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Browns 2
Drive ended5 plays, from the Browns 4 to the Browns 13
Punt1 play
Punt12 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Browns 24
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Browns 4 to the Texans 37
The period ended7 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 36
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 36
No good14 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Browns 27
The period ended10 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Texans 35
4th quarter40 plays
Texans0Browns9
Texans0Browns10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 9
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Texans 49
Texans6Browns10
Texans7Browns10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Browns 16
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended13 plays, from the Browns 3 to the Texans 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -4.5
Closing total
46
Texans moneyline
+192
Browns moneyline
-217
Browns closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 17 — under by 29.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; a real wind at 25 mph out of the south; 0.04 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
Texans 7 days · Browns 14 days
Coaches
Romeo Crennel vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteWind at 25 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 5:04
CLE +7% win prob
(5:04) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 85-P.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:10CLE +7% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 82-R.Higgins. PENALTY on HOU-26-V.Hargreaves, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 49 - No Play.
