For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Indianapolis Colts 34 at Tennessee Titans 17. Final.
Colts -1 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 10
Indianapolis Colts 34, Titans 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 7:29, 4th and 1, on Jordan Wilkins — 15.6 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:29 · 4th and 1
Jordan Wilkins
Titans
(7:29) (Shotgun) 20-J.Wilkins right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).
Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 17.
Indianapolis Colts 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 7:29, Titans +15.6% win probability on one snap.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ryan TannehillTitansQ2 3:42(3:42) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 13-C.Batson. PENALTY on IND-26-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at IND 18 - No Play.
13.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetColtsQ3 1:57(1:57) 12-T.Daniel punt is BLOCKED by 45-E.Speed, Center-47-M.Overton, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at TEN 6. 38-T.Carrie for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.9pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Titans at 6 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Titans at 3 of 10 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Colts164 of 171 plays carry both curves
(7:29) (Shotgun) 20-J.Wilkins right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).
Swing +15.6 for TitansExpected points +4.24 for TitansThe model had Titans 11 points higher than the market did.play 108
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 7:29IND +16% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 20-J.Wilkins right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).
2nd · 3:42TEN +13% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 13-C.Batson. PENALTY on IND-26-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at IND 18 - No Play.
3rd · 1:57IND +12% win prob(1:57) 12-T.Daniel punt is BLOCKED by 45-E.Speed, Center-47-M.Overton, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at TEN 6. 38-T.Carrie for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:01TEN +10% win prob(:01) 3-R.Blankenship 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Penalty on TEN-46-J.Kalu, Defensive Offside, declined.
3rd · 4:53IND +9% win prob(4:53) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -10 yards (96-D.Autry).
2nd · 9:59TEN +9% win prob(9:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman to TEN 31 for 30 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nyheim Miller-Hines's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 2:55 left in the 3rd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:54D'Onta Foreman·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–7
1st0:40Rodrigo Blankenship·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–7
2nd11:17Stephen Gostkowski·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap M.Overton+33–10
2nd7:55Nyheim Miller-Hines·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+710–10
Colts ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Colts: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.07Titans: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Colts: +0.39 expected points added per play
−0.10Titans: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Colts: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.03Titans: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 68 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Titans’s 60 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Colts 6, Titans 4.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Titans5.1%
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 71.4%, 37.1 points above their season mean of 34.4% and 1.5 times their own 25.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Wilkins right−17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:29) (Shotgun) 20-J.Wilkins right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).
Q3 7:29 · Colts · 4th & goal at TEN 1 · gained nothing · -4.24 EP · −16.6% win probability
162 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
51%
Yards
724
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.2471%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.3033%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0676%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.2720%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.2433%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.3217%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3533%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Colts0Titans6
Colts0Titans7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Colts 5
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 29
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Titans 33
Colts3Titans7
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 6
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Colts3Titans10
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Colts 32
Colts9Titans10
Colts10Titans10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Titans 13
Colts10Titans16
Colts10Titans17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 1
Colts13Titans17
Field goal17 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Titans 9
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Titans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 1 to the Titans 20
Colts19Titans17
Colts20Titans17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 2
Colts26Titans17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 26
Colts27Titans17
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Titans 31
4th quarter41 plays
No good9 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Colts 18
Colts33Titans17
Colts34Titans17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Titans 2
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 12
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Colts 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Colts 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
