2020 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 12, 2020 · Nissan Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Tennessee Titans

IND -1 ✓O 49 ✓Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 17.

Indianapolis Colts 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 7:29, IND +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 7:29IND — TEN IND ball · 4th & 1IND 57%

(7:29) (Shotgun) 20-J.Wilkins right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 7:29IND +16% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 20-J.Wilkins right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).
Q2 · 3:42TEN +13% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 13-C.Batson. PENALTY on IND-26-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at IND 18 - No Play.
Q3 · 1:57IND +12% win prob(1:57) 12-T.Daniel punt is BLOCKED by 45-E.Speed, Center-47-M.Overton, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at TEN 6. 38-T.Carrie for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:01TEN +10% win prob(:01) 3-R.Blankenship 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Penalty on TEN-46-J.Kalu, Defensive Offside, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Titans
Offensive plays	68	60
Total yards	430 (edge)	294
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.21 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	53% (edge)	50%
Dropback rate	57%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	-0.03 (edge)
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0	0

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

29/39, 308 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

15.0 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

15/27, 147 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.4 expected points added · -10.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

19 att, 103 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Nyheim Miller-HinesRB

12 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

7/8 for 101 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

5/6 for 67 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 33	8	67	3:10	Touchdown
2	IND	IND 25	12	46	4:56	Turnover on downs
3	TEN	TEN 29	4	4	1:48	Punt
4	IND	IND 25	11	69	4:30	Turnover on downs
5	TEN	TEN 25	9	38	4:24	Turnover on downs
6	IND	IND 20	10	80	3:23	Touchdown
7	TEN	TEN 25	11	47	4:55	Touchdown
8	IND	IND 24	14	56	2:54	Turnover on downs
9	IND	IND 26	16	73	7:36	Turnover on downs
10	TEN	TEN 1	6	9	3:15	Punt
11	IND	TEN 27	5	27	1:18	Touchdown
12	TEN	TEN 25	5	1	0:59	Defensive touchdown
13	TEN	TEN 22	13	47	4:41	Turnover on downs
14	IND	IND 34	5	51	2:50	Touchdown
15	TEN	TEN 25	11	63	2:29	Turnover on downs
16	IND	IND 12	6	28	3:51	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 16	6	18	3:01	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	29/39	308	1	0	1	15.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nyheim Miller-Hines	12	70	5.8	1	3.4
Jordan Wilkins	8	28	3.5	0	-8.6
Michael Pittman	1	21	21.0	0	2.2
Jonathan Taylor	7	12	1.7	0	0.3
Jacoby Brissett	1	2	2.0	1	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	7	8	101	0	22%	3.9
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	6	45	1	17%	3.3
T.Y. Hilton	4	5	40	0	14%	3.2
Zach Pascal	4	5	33	0	14%	3.5
Jonathan Taylor	2	2	25	0	6%	2.2
Trey Burton	3	3	24	0	8%	1.5
DeMichael Harris	1	1	21	0	3%	1.8
Mo Alie-Cox	3	4	19	0	11%	0.1
Jordan Wilkins	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4
Marcus Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	3	6	0.0	0
Khari Willis	5	3	0.0	0
Anthony Walker	1	3	0.0	0
Grover Stewart	2	2	0.0	0
Bobby Okereke	3	1	0.0	1
Julian Blackmon	3	1	0.0	0
Denico Autry	2	2	1.0	0
DeForest Buckner	2	2	0.0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	2	1	0.0	0
Tyquan Lewis	2	0	0.0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	15/27	147	1	0	1	-4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	19	103	5.4	0	0.6
Jeremy McNichols	3	26	8.7	0	1.0
D'Onta Foreman	7	18	2.6	0	-3.1
Ryan Tannehill	2	9	4.5	0	1.4
Jonnu Smith	1	1	1.0	1	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	5	6	67	0	22%	4.6
A.J. Brown	1	4	21	0	15%	-1.0
Jonnu Smith	2	6	14	0	22%	-4.5
Khari Blasingame	1	1	13	0	4%	0.9
Jeremy McNichols	1	1	8	0	4%	0.5
Cameron Batson	2	2	8	0	7%	-0.8
Derrick Henry	1	2	6	0	7%	-0.3
D'Onta Foreman	1	1	5	1	4%	1.0
Anthony Firkser	1	3	5	0	11%	-1.3
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kevin Byard	6	4	0.0	0
Jayon Brown	5	2	0.0	1
Kenny Vaccaro	3	3	0.0	0
Malcolm Butler	4	2	0.0	1
Desmond King	2	3	0.0	0
Harold Landry	4	1	0.0	0
Breon Borders	5	0	0.0	0
Rashaan Evans	2	2	0.0	0
Jack Crawford	1	3	0.0	0
DaQuan Jones	3	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -1
Closing total: 49
IND moneyline: -115
TEN moneyline: +105

Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 49; the game landed 51 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: IND 4 days · TEN 4 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.