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polling · 1800s tick · as of 4:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at Green Bay Packers 24. Final.
Packers -13.5 no coverU 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 10
Green Bay Packers 24, Jaguars 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 1st and 10, on Marquez Valdes-Scantling — 17.5 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 1st and 10
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Packers
(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.6 mph wind
Packers closed -13.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 24–20. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Packers +17.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 20.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
17.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetJaguarsQ2 10:25(10:25) 6-J.Scott punts 59 yards to JAX 9, Center-43-H.Bradley. 84-K.Cole Sr. for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.0pts
S.JonesJaguarsQ3 1:21(1:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 83-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 35-S.Jones IV at JAX 43. 35-S.Jones IV to JAX 44 for 1 yard (83-M.Valdes-Scantling).
9.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 4 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Jaguars162 of 174 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +17.5 for PackersExpected points +6.18 for PackersThe model had Jaguars 26 points higher than the market did.play 41
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00GB +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:25JAX +15% win prob(10:25) 6-J.Scott punts 59 yards to JAX 9, Center-43-H.Bradley. 84-K.Cole Sr. for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:21JAX +9% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 83-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 35-S.Jones IV at JAX 43. 35-S.Jones IV to JAX 44 for 1 yard (83-M.Valdes-Scantling).
1st · 9:39GB +9% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 85-R.Tonyan. PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at GB 26 - No Play.
4th · 12:01GB +9% win prob(12:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan to GB 49 for 23 yards (20-D.Thomas).
4th · 9:11GB +9% win prob(9:11) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davante Adams's 6-yard touchdown catch with 9:11 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:41Chase McLaughlin·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+33–0
Packers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Jaguars: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.04Packers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.32Jaguars: −0.32 expected points added per play
+0.06Packers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Jaguars: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.22Packers: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 61 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Packers’s 58 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 10.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Packers10.5%
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 35.7 points below their season mean of 35.7% and 1.1 times their own 31.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 15:00 · Packers · 1st & 10 at GB 22 · gained 78 · +6.18 EP · +18.9% win probability
160 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 91 yards from the GB 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
37%
Yards
655
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1971%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0267%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.3169%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.2846%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.0414%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 32
Jaguars3Packers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Packers 33
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Jaguars 37
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 5 to the Jaguars 38
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Packers 11
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Jaguars 48
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 9 to the Packers 16
2nd quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Jaguars3Packers6
Jaguars3Packers7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 44
Jaguars9Packers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Packers 35
Jaguars10Packers7
Jaguars10Packers13
Jaguars10Packers14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Jaguars 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 37
Jaguars10Packers17
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jaguars 15
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 41
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Jaguars16Packers17
Jaguars17Packers17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Packers 12
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Jaguars 33
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Packers 38
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Jaguars 47
The period ended3 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Packers 35
4th quarter47 plays
Jaguars20Packers17
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Packers 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Jaguars20Packers23
Jaguars20Packers24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Jaguars 6
Punt13 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Packers 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.9 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Packers 36
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
