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2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · Lambeau Field

Jacksonville Jaguars

20

Green Bay PackersWinner

24

GB -13.5 no coverU 47 ✓23 mph wind

Green Bay Packers 24–20. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, GB +17% win probability on one snap. Played in 23 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑JAX ↓
Q2 · 15:00JAX — GB GB ball · 1st & 10GB 69%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 15:00GB +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 10:25JAX +15% win prob(10:25) 6-J.Scott punts 59 yards to JAX 9, Center-43-H.Bradley. 84-K.Cole Sr. for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 1:21JAX +9% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 83-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 35-S.Jones IV at JAX 43. 35-S.Jones IV to JAX 44 for 1 yard (83-M.Valdes-Scantling).
  4. Q1 · 9:39GB +9% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 85-R.Tonyan. PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at GB 26 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsPackers
Offensive plays6158
Total yards260396 (edge)
Yards per play4.36.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.20-0.04 (edge)
Success rate39%41% (edge)
Dropback rate62%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.320.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.01 (edge)-0.22
Third downs4/135/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)46 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1515
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

24/34, 325 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.4 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Jake LutonQB

18/35, 169 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-12.1 expected points added · -19.4% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

23 att, 109 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

13 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

4/6 for 149 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

8/12 for 66 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · -5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 25571:38Punt
2JAXJAX 387292:46Turnover on downs
3GBGB 256243:19Punt
4JAXJAX 56332:15Punt
5GBGB 4471:40Punt
6JAXJAX 42461:35Punt
7GBGB 95912:00Touchdown
8JAXJAX 257192:15Punt
9GBGB 27452:26Defensive touchdown
10GBGB 1915817:51Touchdown
11JAXJAX 254120:47Interception
12GBJAX 266151:26Turnover on downs
13JAX—100:02End of half
14JAXJAX 257142:50Punt
15GBGB 21220:14Fumble
16JAXGB 164261:26Touchdown
17GBGB 259273:21Turnover on downs
18JAXJAX 339294:26Punt
19GBGB 204331:27Interception
20JAXJAX 447533:36Turnover on downs
21GBGB 259753:37Touchdown
22JAXJAX 712384:57Punt
23GBGB 14491:41Punt
24JAXJAX 47711:24Turnover on downs
25GBJAX 48201:01End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jake Luton18/35169113-12.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Robinson231094.700.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Chark4556015%4.4
Keelan Cole5747121%4.4
Chris Conley4843024%-1.8
Tyler Eifert2415012%-6.4
Dare Ogunbowale12506%-0.4
James Robinson253015%-4.4
James O'Shaughnessy01003%-0.5
Terry Godwin02006%-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Joe Schobert360.000
Myles Jack350.000
Sidney Jones530.012
Tre Herndon320.000
Daniel Thomas320.000
Davon Hamilton401.001
Jarrod Wilson120.000
C.J. Henderson300.001
Dare Ogunbowale200.000
Brandon Rusnak100.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers24/343252116.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones13463.50-3.6
Jamaal Williams8303.80-0.5
Aaron Rodgers341.310.4
Tyler Ervin100.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling46149118%4.9
Davante Adams81266136%-5.3
Aaron Jones5649018%3.3
Robert Tonyan3433012%0.8
Jamaal Williams3425012%0.2
Tyler Ervin11303%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Kirksey430.000
Kenny Clark320.000
Chandon Sullivan500.000
Darnell Savage410.002
Za'Darius Smith321.000
Preston Smith311.000
Ka'dar Hollman400.001
Raven Greene300.001
Josh Jackson210.000
Rashan Gary201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -13.5
Closing total
47
JAX moneyline
+653
GB moneyline
-893

Packers closed -13.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47; the game landed 44 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
38°F, wind 23 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
JAX 7 days · GB 10 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Matt LaFleur

Wind at 23 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.