2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -1 ✓O 48.5 ✓Dolphins closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.

Miami Dolphins 29–21. Biggest swing: Q1 13:06, LAC +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:06LAC — MIA LAC ball · 4th & 14MIA 63%

(13:06) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 43-A.Van Ginkel, Center-45-C.Mazza, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Perry at LAC 1.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:06LAC +9% win prob(13:06) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 43-A.Van Ginkel, Center-45-C.Mazza, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Perry at LAC 1.
Q1 · 14:28LAC +9% win prob(14:28) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 15 for -13 yards (40-N.Needham).
Q4 · 14:20LAC +9% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 40. 25-X.Howard pushed ob at LAC 32 for 28 yards (10-J.Herbert).
Q2 · 4:27MIA +8% win prob(4:27) 61-S.Quessenberry reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Dolphins
Offensive plays	62	55
Total yards	274	284 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	48% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	58%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	4/13	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

20/32, 187 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-5.4 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

15/25, 169 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.0 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Salvon AhmedRB

21 att, 85 yds, 1 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Kalen BallageRB

18 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jakeem GrantWR

4/5 for 43 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Mike GesickiTE

2/5 for 40 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	5	-4	2:02	Punt
2	MIA	LAC 1	4	1	0:04	Touchdown
3	LAC	LAC 7	8	48	4:52	Turnover on downs
4	MIA	MIA 12	14	88	7:04	Touchdown
5	LAC	LAC 25	5	7	1:08	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 44	9	47	4:34	Fumble
7	LAC	MIA 37	12	37	5:51	Touchdown
8	MIA	MIA 25	5	9	2:25	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 4	6	11	0:54	Punt
10	MIA	LAC 47	5	15	0:42	Turnover on downs
11	LAC	LAC 13	2	0	0:24	End of half
12	MIA	MIA 25	5	6	1:20	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 32	12	68	6:38	Touchdown
14	MIA	MIA 25	9	63	4:32	Turnover on downs
15	LAC	LAC 18	7	27	3:20	Interception
16	MIA	LAC 32	6	32	2:32	Touchdown
17	LAC	LAC 25	5	2	0:58	Punt
18	MIA	LAC 38	4	9	2:18	Turnover on downs
19	LAC	LAC 37	4	9	1:45	Turnover on downs
20	MIA	LAC 45	7	14	2:38	Turnover on downs
21	LAC	LAC 31	10	69	2:02	Touchdown
22	MIA	LAC 49	4	0	1:57	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 88 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	20/32	187	2	1	2	-5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kalen Ballage	18	68	3.8	0	0.9
Joshua Kelley	7	21	3.0	0	-1.1
Justin Herbert	4	10	2.5	1	3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	3	7	39	1	22%	-1.2
Mike Williams	2	5	38	0	16%	-2.3
Kalen Ballage	5	6	34	0	19%	1.5
Hunter Henry	4	6	30	1	19%	0.7
Jalen Guyton	4	6	24	0	19%	-3.2
Donald Parham	1	1	13	0	3%	1.5
Gabe Nabers	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Nasir Adderley	7	0	0
Kyzir White	3	3	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	4	1	0
Michael Davis	4	0	2
Justin Jones	3	1	0
Linval Joseph	2	2	0
Kenneth Murray	2	2	0
Jahleel Addae	2	1	0
Denzel Perryman	2	1	0
Jerry Tillery	1	1	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	15/25	169	2	0	0	8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Salvon Ahmed	21	85	4.0	1	-2.5
Patrick Laird	2	19	9.5	0	2.1
Malcolm Perry	1	6	6.0	0	0.2
DeAndre Washington	2	2	1.0	0	-1.1
Tua Tagovailoa	6	-1	-0.2	0	-10.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jakeem Grant	4	5	43	1	21%	4.9
Mike Gesicki	2	5	40	0	21%	0.9
DeVante Parker	2	7	31	0	29%	-0.4
Malcolm Perry	2	2	21	0	8%	1.2
Adam Shaheen	1	1	19	0	4%	1.6
Durham Smythe	2	2	9	1	8%	3.1
Salvon Ahmed	1	1	5	0	4%	0.0
Mack Hollins	1	1	1	0	4%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Elandon Roberts	1	6	0.0	0	0
Eric Rowe	4	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	3	0.0	0	0
Zach Sieler	2	3	0.0	0	0
Brandon Jones	3	2	0.0	0	0
Shaq Lawson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jerome Baker	3	1	0.0	0	0
Nik Needham	4	0	1.0	0	1
Raekwon Davis	2	2	0.0	0	0
Xavien Howard	1	2	0.0	1	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -1
Closing total: 48.5
LAC moneyline: +104
MIA moneyline: -115

Dolphins closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 50 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 83°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: LAC 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Brian Flores