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2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles21
BY 8final margin
DolphinsMiami29
Los Angeles Chargers 21 at Miami Dolphins 29. Final.
Dolphins -1 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 10
Miami Dolphins 29, Chargers 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:06, 4th and 14 — 9.5 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:06 · 4th and 14
Unnamed on the sheet
Dolphins
(13:06) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 43-A.Van Ginkel, Center-45-C.Mazza, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Perry at LAC 1.
Dolphins closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.
Miami Dolphins 29–21. Biggest swing: Q1 13:06, Dolphins +9.5% win probability on one snap.
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin HerbertDolphinsQ1 14:28(14:28) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 15 for -13 yards (40-N.Needham).
8.9pts
Xavien HowardDolphinsQ4 14:20(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 40. 25-X.Howard pushed ob at LAC 32 for 28 yards (10-J.Herbert).
8.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Dolphins at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Chargers at 3 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Chargers156 of 169 plays carry both curves
(13:06) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 43-A.Van Ginkel, Center-45-C.Mazza, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Perry at LAC 1.
Swing +9.5 for DolphinsExpected points +4.13 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 3 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:06LAC +9% win prob(13:06) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 43-A.Van Ginkel, Center-45-C.Mazza, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Perry at LAC 1.
1st · 14:28LAC +9% win prob(14:28) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 15 for -13 yards (40-N.Needham).
4th · 14:20LAC +9% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 40. 25-X.Howard pushed ob at LAC 32 for 28 yards (10-J.Herbert).
2nd · 4:27MIA +8% win prob(4:27) 61-S.Quessenberry reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:28LAC +7% win prob(10:28) 1-T.Tagovailoa Aborted. 67-T.Karras FUMBLES at LAC 9, touched at LAC 9, RECOVERED by LAC-59-N.Vigil at LAC 19. 59-N.Vigil to MIA 37 for 44 yards (1-T.Tagovailoa). LAC-23-R.Jenkins was injured during the play.
1st · 4:57MIA +6% win prob(4:57) (Shotgun) 26-S.Ahmed up the middle to LAC 34 for 18 yards (24-N.Adderley, 44-K.White).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Salvon Ahmed's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 12:58 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:58Salvon Ahmed·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st1:01Jakeem Grant·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+70–14
Dolphins ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Chargers: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.04Dolphins: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Chargers: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.28Dolphins: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Chargers: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.35Dolphins: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 55 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Dolphins 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's sack or hit rate, 3.7%, is past their previous low of 6.5% in week 3 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.75× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins22.2%
leaned — got home · +6.7 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.7%, 10.6 points below their season mean of 14.3% and 1.7 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
76Forrest LampG · Every snap100%64 snaps
75Bryan BulagaT · Every snap100%64 snaps
69Sam TeviT · Every snap100%64 snaps
66Dan FeeneyG · Every snap100%64 snaps
10Justin HerbertQB · Full-time98%63 snaps
86Hunter HenryTE · Full-time92%59 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time86%55 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Heavy rotation77%49 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation75%48 snaps
31Kalen BallageRB · Heavy rotation72%46 snaps
15Jalen GuytonWR · Heavy rotation69%44 snaps
27Joshua KelleyRB · Rotational27%17 snaps
89Donald ParhamTE · Situational22%14 snaps
64Cole TonerC · Situational22%14 snaps
83Tyron JohnsonWR · Situational20%13 snaps
40Gabe NabersRB · Situational16%10 snaps
61Scott QuessenberryG · Situational13%8 snaps
82Stephen AndersonTE · Situational3%2 snaps
98Isaac RochellDE · Situational2%1 snap
1Ty LongP · Situational2%1 snap
45Cole MazzaLS · Situational2%1 snap
79Trey PipkinsT · Situational2%1 snap
4Michael BadgleyK · Situational2%1 snap
84K.J. HillWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Joey BosaDEJessie LemonierDEEaston StickQBStorm NortonTTyree St. LouisT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Long punt−10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:06) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 43-A.Van Ginkel, Center-45-C.Mazza, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Perry at LAC 1.
Q1 13:06 · Chargers · 4th & 14 at LAC 21 · gained nothing · -4.13 EP · −9.7% win probability
154 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 88 yards from the MIA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
41%
Yards
553
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2764%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.3459%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.5421%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.3456%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR7-0.0143%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.2833%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 28
Chargers0Dolphins6
Chargers0Dolphins7
Touchdown2 plays
Drive ended8 plays, from the Chargers 7 to the Dolphins 49
Punt2 plays
Chargers0Dolphins13
Chargers0Dolphins14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Chargers 3
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Chargers 9
Chargers6Dolphins14
Chargers7Dolphins14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Dolphins 1
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 4 to the Chargers 15
Chargers7Dolphins17
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 47 to the Chargers 32
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 31
Chargers13Dolphins17
Chargers14Dolphins17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Dolphins 2
Chargers14Dolphins20
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chargers 17
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Chargers 47
4th quarter48 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Chargers14Dolphins26
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chargers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 27
No good4 plays, from the Chargers 38 to the Chargers 29
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Chargers 37 to the Chargers 46
Chargers14Dolphins29
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Chargers 26
Chargers20Dolphins29
Chargers21Dolphins29
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Dolphins 13
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
