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Minnesota Vikings 19, Bears 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 15:00 — 22.0 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 15:00
Unnamed on the sheet
Bears
5-D.Bailey kicks 69 yards from MIN 35 to CHI -4. 84-C.Patterson for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.0
Vikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Minnesota Vikings 19–13. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, Bears +22.0% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Khalil MackBearsQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 52-K.Mack at CHI 22. 52-K.Mack pushed ob at MIN 45 for 33 yards (8-K.Cousins).
16.3pts
Justin JeffersonVikingsQ3 3:31(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CHI 32 for 54 yards (33-J.Johnson).
16.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Vikings won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 11 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bears at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.49 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.44 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Vikings153 of 162 plays carry both curves
Q3 · 15:00Vikings 7 — Bears 12CHI ballMIN 63%
Vikings 63%Bears 37%
5-D.Bailey kicks 69 yards from MIN 35 to CHI -4. 84-C.Patterson for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +22.0 for BearsExpected points +5.53 for BearsThe model had Bears 17 points higher than the market did.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 15:00CHI +22% win prob5-D.Bailey kicks 69 yards from MIN 35 to CHI -4. 84-C.Patterson for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:31CHI +17% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CHI 32 for 54 yards (33-J.Johnson).
2nd · 2:00MIN +16% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 52-K.Mack at CHI 22. 52-K.Mack pushed ob at MIN 45 for 33 yards (8-K.Cousins).
3rd · 11:54CHI +15% win prob(11:54) 2-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to CHI 18, Center-58-A.Cutting. 82-Dw.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-44-J.Metellus at CHI 20.
4th · 10:10CHI +13% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:35MIN +10% win prob(10:35) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph to CHI 28 for 12 yards (59-D.Trevathan). FUMBLES (59-D.Trevathan), RECOVERED by CHI-38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 27. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adam Thielen's 6-yard touchdown catch with 10:10 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
1st0:35Cairo Santos·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+37–3
2nd0:53Cairo Santos·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+37–6
3rd15:00Cordarrelle Patterson·104-yd return TD104-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+77–13
3rd10:54Dan Bailey·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+310–13
3rd1:57Dan Bailey·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+313–13
4th10:10Adam Thielen·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousinsfrom Kirk Cousins · two-point no goodLead never changed again+619–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryBears
Vikings8–1Bears
386Total yards149
5.5Yards per play3.0
37%Success rate31%
53%Third-down rate18%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays2
20First downs10
1Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Vikings: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.44Bears: −0.44 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Vikings: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.49Bears: −0.49 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Vikings: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.33Bears: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 70 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Bears’s 49 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Bears 2.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.44.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's sack or hit rate, 33.3%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 4.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 21.4% in week 5.
2.9 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 9.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 17 pts
off script — got home · +22.1 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+2.91× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears13.2%
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 22.1 points above their season mean of 11.3% and 2.9 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CHI 32 for 54 yards (33-J.Johnson).
Q3 3:31 · Vikings · 3rd & 11 at MIN 14 · gained 54 · +5.23 EP · +19.6% win probability
151 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 70 yards from the CHI 25 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
34%
Yards
534
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24-0.1238%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.7481%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.8280%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14+0.6057%
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR12-0.1142%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.2011%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR8-0.6863%
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR7+1.04100%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1540%
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 40
Intercepted2 plays
Vikings6Bears0
Vikings7Bears0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Bears 17
Vikings7Bears3
Field goal15 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 5
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Bears 46
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Vikings 47
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Bears 28
Vikings7Bears6
Field goal5 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Vikings 24
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Vikings7Bears12
Vikings7Bears13
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 48
Vikings10Bears13
Field goal4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 19
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 28
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 24
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Vikings13Bears13
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Bears 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 34
4th quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Vikings19Bears13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Bears 6
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Bears 44
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the Vikings 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Vikings 46 to the Vikings 31
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Bears 35
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 38
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
