2020 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 16, 2020 · Soldier Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Chicago Bears

MIN -3.5 ✓U 44 ✓Vikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Minnesota Vikings 19–13. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, CHI +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 15:00MIN — CHI CHI ballMIN 63%

5-D.Bailey kicks 69 yards from MIN 35 to CHI -4. 84-C.Patterson for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 15:00CHI +22% win prob5-D.Bailey kicks 69 yards from MIN 35 to CHI -4. 84-C.Patterson for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:31CHI +17% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CHI 32 for 54 yards (33-J.Johnson).
Q2 · 2:00MIN +16% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 52-K.Mack at CHI 22. 52-K.Mack pushed ob at MIN 45 for 33 yards (8-K.Cousins).
Q3 · 11:54CHI +15% win prob(11:54) 2-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to CHI 18, Center-58-A.Cutting. 82-Dw.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-44-J.Metellus at CHI 20.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Bears
Offensive plays	70	49
Total yards	386 (edge)	149
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	3.0
Expected points added / play	-0.03 (edge)	-0.44
Success rate	37% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	54%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.49
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.33
Third downs	8/15 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.44.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

25/36, 292 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.4 expected points added · +10.5% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Nick FolesQB

15/26, 106 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-14.7 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

30 att, 96 yds, 0 TD

-6.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

12 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

8/10 for 135 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Kyle RudolphTE

4/5 for 63 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · -2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	9	42	4:38	Fumble
2	CHI	CHI 27	2	0	0:48	Interception
3	MIN	CHI 41	7	41	3:05	Touchdown
4	CHI	CHI 25	15	70	5:57	Turnover on downs
5	MIN	MIN 25	8	29	3:29	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 20	9	26	5:31	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 20	9	52	4:41	Interception
8	CHI	MIN 45	5	21	1:02	Turnover on downs
9	MIN	MIN 25	3	0	0:49	End of half
10	CHI	—	2	0	0:14	Defensive touchdown
11	MIN	MIN 25	8	23	3:02	Punt
12	MIN	CHI 20	4	1	0:54	Turnover on downs
13	CHI	CHI 25	5	3	1:37	Punt
14	MIN	MIN 22	4	-4	2:12	Punt
15	CHI	MIN 46	4	0	1:49	Punt
16	MIN	MIN 15	7	70	3:20	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	CHI 29	5	-5	2:03	Punt
18	MIN	MIN 37	10	73	4:43	Touchdown
19	CHI	CHI 37	5	5	1:31	Punt
20	MIN	MIN 11	7	29	3:34	Punt
21	CHI	MIN 46	5	11	2:57	Turnover on downs
22	MIN	MIN 35	6	30	1:20	Punt
23	CHI	CHI 20	6	18	0:41	Turnover on downs
24	MIN	CHI 38	1	0	0:03	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 73 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	25/36	292	2	1	1	11.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	30	96	3.2	-6.9
Alexander Mattison	2	4	2.0	-0.4
Kirk Cousins	1	-1	-1.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	8	10	135	0	31%	9.0
Kyle Rudolph	4	5	63	0	16%	-2.0
Adam Thielen	4	7	43	2	22%	0.7
Dalvin Cook	4	4	16	0	13%	0.1
Chad Beebe	2	2	16	0	6%	0.8
Tyler Conklin	2	2	11	0	6%	-0.0
C.J. Ham	1	1	8	0	3%	0.8
Olabisi Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Wilson	4	3	0.5	1
Anthony Harris	4	1	0.0	1
Kris Boyd	2	2	0.0	0
Jeff Gladney	4	0	0.0	0
Hercules Mata'afa	2	1	0.5	0
Chris Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Armon Watts	3	0	0.0	0
Troy Dye	0	3	0.0	1
Eric Kendricks	2	1	0.0	0
D.J. Wonnum	2	0	1.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	15/26	106	0	1	2	-14.7
Tyler Bray	1/5	18	0	0	0	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	12	30	2.5	-4.0
Artavis Pierce	3	9	3.0	-1.0
Nick Foles	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Ryan Nall	1	0	0.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	6	9	43	31%	-2.4
Anthony Miller	2	7	28	24%	-8.9
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	2	19	7%	2.3
Ryan Nall	1	2	18	7%	-0.1
Cole Kmet	1	3	7	10%	-0.2
Lamar Miller	2	2	6	7%	-0.0
Darnell Mooney	2	2	3	7%	-0.3
Jimmy Graham	0	2	0	7%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	8	6	1.0	0
Danny Trevathan	7	1	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	6	1	0.0	0
Brent Urban	3	3	0.0	0
Jaylon Johnson	5	0	0.0	1
Bilal Nichols	1	3	0.0	0
Akiem Hicks	3	1	0.0	0
Buster Skrine	2	1	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	2	1	0.0	0
Barkevious Mingo	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3.5
Closing total: 44
MIN moneyline: -170
CHI moneyline: +152

Vikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 44; the game landed 32 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 44°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: MIN 8 days · CHI 8 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Matt Nagy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.