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Philadelphia Eagles 17 at New York Giants 27. Final.
Eagles -4.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 10
New York Giants 27, Eagles 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 12:41, 1st and 10, on Boston Scott — 15.0 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:41 · 1st and 10
Boston Scott
Eagles
(12:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
U 45 ✓
18.7 mph wind
Eagles closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 27–17. Biggest swing: Q3 12:41, Eagles +15.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Daniel JonesGiantsQ1 11:19(11:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.5pts
Golden TateGiantsQ3 11:34(11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 15-G.Tate to PHI 10 for 38 yards (31-N.Robey).
11.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Giants won this one — 5 of 14 on third down, against Eagles at 0 of 9 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Giants at +0.15 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Eagles at 6 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Eagles173 of 182 plays carry both curves
(12:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Swing −15.0 for GiantsExpected points −4.88 for GiantsThe model had Giants 13 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:41NYG +15% win prob(12:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 11:34NYG +11% win prob(11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 15-G.Tate to PHI 10 for 38 yards (31-N.Robey).
1st · 11:19NYG +11% win prob(11:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:56PHI +10% win prob(4:56) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Reagor (24-J.Bradberry).
2nd · 10:42NYG +9% win prob(10:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 71 yards to PHI 6, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-18-C.Board.
1st · 14:19NYG +9% win prob(14:19) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 86-D.Slayton to NYG 32 for 22 yards (23-R.McLeod).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Jones's 34-yard rushing touchdown with 11:19 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:19Daniel Jones·34-yd TD run34-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st6:31Jake Elliott·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–7
3rd5:25Corey Clement·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+617–21
4th7:49Graham Gano·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+317–24
4th3:11Graham Gano·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+317–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryGiants
Eagles1–5Giants
348Total yards384
5.4Yards per play5.9
49%Success rate49%
0%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays8
21First downs19
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Giants ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Eagles: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.20Giants: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Eagles: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.26Giants: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.43Eagles: +0.43 expected points added per play
+0.15Giants: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 65 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Giants’s 65 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Giants 4.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
NYG's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, is past their previous high of 23.1% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 9.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +3.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Giants28.6%
off script — got home · +12.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+2.02× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 12.7 points above their season mean of 15.8% and 2.0 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Scott left+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 12:41 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 44 · gained 56 · +4.88 EP · +11.4% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 85 yards from the NYG 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
730
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0469%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.3355%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.1054%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.4559%
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Eagles0Giants6
Eagles0Giants7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Eagles 34
Eagles3Giants7
Field goal14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 22
The period ended15 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 2
2nd quarter53 plays
Eagles3Giants13
Eagles3Giants14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Giants 41
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 23
Punt13 plays, from the Eagles 6 to the Giants 49
Punt13 plays, from the Giants 2 to the Eagles 44
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Eagles 12
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Eagles 37
3rd quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles9Giants14
Eagles11Giants14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 44
Eagles11Giants20
Eagles11Giants21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 1
Eagles17Giants21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 5
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 32
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Eagles 30
The period ended3 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Giants 32
4th quarter48 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Giants 47
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Eagles 18
Eagles17Giants24
Field goal9 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 14
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 36
Eagles17Giants27
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Eagles 23
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Eagles 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Eaglescategory by categoryGiants
Eagles0
Giants6
