2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · MetLife Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles

New York GiantsWinner

PHI -4.5 upsetU 45 ✓18 mph windEagles closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 27–17. Biggest swing: Q3 12:41, NYG +15% win probability on one snap. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:41PHI — NYG PHI ball · 1st & 10NYG 69%

(12:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:41NYG +15% win prob(12:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 11:34NYG +11% win prob(11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 15-G.Tate to PHI 10 for 38 yards (31-N.Robey).
Q1 · 11:19NYG +11% win prob(11:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:56PHI +10% win prob(4:56) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Reagor (24-J.Bradberry).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Giants
Offensive plays	65	65
Total yards	348	384 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.20 (edge)
Success rate	49%	49%
Dropback rate	65%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.43 (edge)	0.15
Third downs	0/9	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0	0

Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

21/28, 244 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

7.2 expected points added · +10.5% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

21/37, 208 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

15 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

9 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Darius SlaytonWR

5/7 for 93 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Richard RodgersTE

4/5 for 60 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 15	10	80	3:49	Touchdown
2	PHI	PHI 25	13	58	4:44	Turnover on downs
3	NYG	NYG 25	15	70	6:30	Touchdown
4	PHI	PHI 9	7	46	3:07	Punt
5	NYG	NYG 15	4	8	1:20	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 6	10	30	4:17	Punt
7	NYG	NYG 2	11	54	5:06	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 11	4	1	0:27	Punt
9	NYG	PHI 43	4	6	0:40	Turnover on downs
10	PHI	PHI 16	7	86	2:29	Touchdown
11	NYG	NYG 25	8	75	2:42	Touchdown
12	PHI	PHI 25	10	68	4:29	Touchdown
13	NYG	NYG 23	5	9	2:32	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 17	5	12	1:44	Punt
15	NYG	NYG 31	6	16	2:00	Punt
16	PHI	PHI 5	6	6	3:02	Punt
17	NYG	PHI 41	6	24	3:17	Turnover on downs
18	PHI	PHI 25	9	24	2:53	Turnover on downs
19	NYG	NYG 36	6	38	1:46	Turnover on downs
20	PHI	PHI 25	6	17	1:05	Turnover on downs
21	NYG	PHI 42	5	4	2:01	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 86 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	21/37	208	0	0	3	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	15	85	5.7	0	3.7
Boston Scott	3	63	21.0	1	5.0
Corey Clement	1	5	5.0	1	1.4
Carson Wentz	2	4	2.0	0	-0.6
Jalen Hurts	2	-1	-0.5	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Richard Rodgers	4	5	60	14%	5.2
Jalen Reagor	4	7	47	19%	1.2
Greg Ward	5	6	39	17%	1.4
Dallas Goedert	4	6	33	17%	-0.5
Boston Scott	1	1	11	3%	-1.0
Miles Sanders	2	5	10	14%	-1.6
Travis Fulgham	1	5	8	14%	-2.7
Alshon Jeffery	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Alex Singleton	8	7	0.0
T.J. Edwards	3	8	0.0
Avonte Maddox	4	3	0.0
Rodney McLeod	2	3	0.0
Jalen Mills	3	1	0.0
Brandon Graham	3	1	0.0
Javon Hargrave	1	2	0.5
Derek Barnett	3	0	1.0
Fletcher Cox	2	1	1.0
Nickell Robey	2	1	0.0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	21/28	244	0	0	3	7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Daniel Jones	9	64	7.1	1	2.6
Wayne Gallman	18	53	2.9	2	2.9
Alfred Morris	8	34	4.3	0	-0.6
Elijhaa Penny	1	0	0.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Darius Slayton	5	7	93	25%	5.4
Sterling Shepard	6	6	47	21%	1.6
Golden Tate	2	5	44	18%	-0.0
Dion Lewis	2	2	17	7%	1.1
Evan Engram	2	3	15	11%	1.1
Kaden Smith	2	2	12	7%	0.6
Austin Mack	1	1	9	4%	1.2
Wayne Gallman	1	2	7	7%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jabrill Peppers	6	1	0.5	0
Devante Downs	5	0	0.0	0
Logan Ryan	4	0	0.0	0
David Mayo	4	0	0.0	0
Blake Martinez	2	2	0.0	0
James Bradberry	4	0	0.0	2
Trent Harris	1	2	0.5	0
Isaac Yiadom	1	2	0.0	1
Julian Love	3	0	0.0	0
Dexter Lawrence	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -4.5
Closing total: 45
PHI moneyline: -219
NYG moneyline: +194

Eagles closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 44 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 18 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: PHI 14 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Joe Judge

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.