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Seattle Seahawks 16 at Los Angeles Rams 23. Final.
Rams -3 ✓U 55 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 10
Los Angeles Rams 23, Seahawks 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:58, 1st and 10, on Jared Goff — 12.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:58 · 1st and 10
Jared Goff
Seahawks
(2:58) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 26 for -7 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), RECOVERED by SEA-29-D.Reed at LA 27.
Dome
Rams closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Los Angeles Rams 23–16. Biggest swing: Q2 2:58, Seahawks +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darious WilliamsRamsQ2 2:12(2:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left intended for 89-W.Dissly INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at LA -6. Touchback.
12.6pts
Jason MyersSeahawksQ2 0:02(:02) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
8.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — 1 giveaway, against Seahawks at 3 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Seahawks at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Seahawks166 of 179 plays carry both curves
(2:58) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 26 for -7 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), RECOVERED by SEA-29-D.Reed at LA 27.
Swing −12.7 for RamsExpected points −5.56 for RamsModel and market agree here.play 69
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:58SEA +13% win prob(2:58) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 26 for -7 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), RECOVERED by SEA-29-D.Reed at LA 27.
2nd · 2:12SEA +13% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left intended for 89-W.Dissly INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at LA -6. Touchback.
2nd · 0:02LA +8% win prob(:02) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
1st · 4:32LA +8% win prob(4:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at SEA 32 for 39 yards (37-Q.Diggs).
1st · 11:54LA +8% win prob(11:54) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 11 for 31 yards (37-Q.Diggs).
3rd · 11:04LA +7% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 11-J.Reynolds to LA 42 for 17 yards (21-T.Flowers). Penalty on SEA-21-T.Flowers, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Darrell Henderson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:27 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:41Kai Forbath·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
2nd3:49Jason Myers·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+310–17
2nd0:02Jason Myers·61-yd field goal61-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+313–17
3rd6:26Malcolm Brown·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+613–23
4th0:29Jason Myers·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+316–23
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryRams
Seahawks1–8Rams
333Total yards391
5.1Yards per play5.8
45%Success rate49%
50%Third-down rate60%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays6
19First downs23
6Sacks taken3
3Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Seahawks: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.09Rams: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Seahawks: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Seahawks: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.04Rams: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 65 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Rams’s 67 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Rams 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's early-down pass rate, 74.5%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
LA's sack or hit rate, 26.0%, is past their previous high of 22.5% in week 5 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.0 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Rams26.0%
leaned — got home · +10.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.0%, 10.0 points above their season mean of 16.0% and 1.5 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff sacked−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:58) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 26 for -7 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), RECOVERED by SEA-29-D.Reed at LA 27.
Q2 2:58 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 33 · lost 6 · -5.56 EP · −17.0% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 93 yards from the LA 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
722
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1570%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.2981%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0735%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2150%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.6230%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Seahawks0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Seahawks0Rams3
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 4
Seahawks6Rams3
Seahawks7Rams3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Rams 13
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Seahawks7Rams9
Seahawks7Rams10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Seahawks 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 44
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Rams 45
Seahawks7Rams16
Seahawks7Rams17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Seahawks 7
Seahawks10Rams17
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Rams 19
Offense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 22
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 41
Seahawks13Rams17
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 9 to the Rams 43
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Seahawks 42
Seahawks13Rams23
Touchdown17 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Seahawks 1
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 37
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 39
4th quarter47 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Seahawks 44 to the Rams 47
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Seahawks 45
Intercepted9 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Rams 38
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Seahawks 35
Seahawks16Rams23
Field goal16 plays, from the Seahawks 5 to the Rams 11
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -3
Closing total
55
Seahawks moneyline
+132
Rams moneyline
-146
Rams closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 55; the game landed 39 — under by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Rams 14 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 0:46
LA +7% win prob
(:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end ran ob at LA 11 for 15 yards (22-T.Hill).
4th · 7:59SEA +7% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at LA 36. 31-D.Williams to SEA 45 for 19 yards (16-T.Lockett).
