For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
San Francisco 49ers 13 at New Orleans Saints 27. Final.
Saints -9.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 10
New Orleans Saints 27, 49ers 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:30, 4th and 4 — 12.5 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:30 · 4th and 4
Unnamed on the sheet
Saints
(9:30) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to SF 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 40-K.Webster MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NO-12-M.Callaway at SF 21. 12-M.Callaway to SF 21 for no gain (40-K.Webster).
Dome
Saints closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.
New Orleans Saints 27–13. Biggest swing: Q2 9:30, Saints +12.5% win probability on one snap.
12.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheet49ersQ1 4:48(4:48) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 44, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-36-M.Harris at NO 49.
9.1pts
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ2 14:566-M.Wishnowsky kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to NO 0. 11-D.Harris to SF 25 for 75 yards (43-J.Mayden).
10.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints won this one — -0.13 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.49 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against 49ers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against Saints at 3 of 11 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
3 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on 49ers161 of 174 plays carry both curves
(9:30) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to SF 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 40-K.Webster MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NO-12-M.Callaway at SF 21. 12-M.Callaway to SF 21 for no gain (40-K.Webster).
Swing +12.5 for SaintsExpected points +4.68 for SaintsThe model had 49ers 22 points higher than the market did.play 52
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:30NO +12% win prob(9:30) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to SF 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 40-K.Webster MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NO-12-M.Callaway at SF 21. 12-M.Callaway to SF 21 for no gain (40-K.Webster).
2nd · 14:56NO +10% win prob6-M.Wishnowsky kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to NO 0. 11-D.Harris to SF 25 for 75 yards (43-J.Mayden).
1st · 4:48NO +9% win prob(4:48) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 44, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-36-M.Harris at NO 49.
1st · 2:13NO +8% win prob(2:13) 4-N.Mullens pass deep right to 82-R.Dwelley to NO 13 for 22 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson) [93-D.Onyemata]. PENALTY on NO-93-D.Onyemata, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at NO 13. Pass 17, YAC 5
2nd · 1:55SF +8% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 28-J.McKinnon left guard to NO 43 for -2 yards (93-D.Onyemata, 27-M.Jenkins).
1st · 10:21NO +6% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 84-K.Bourne to NO 41 for 4 yards (20-J.Jenkins, 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on NO-22-C.Gardner-Johnson, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at NO 41. Pass 1, YAC 3
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alvin Kamara's 3-yard touchdown catch with 1:19 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:47Brandon Aiyuk·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+77–0
2nd15:00Robbie Gould·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+310–0
2nd13:53Wil Lutz·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+310–3
4th5:59Robbie Gould·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+313–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categorySaints
49ers4–3Saints
281Total yards243
4.3Yards per play4.7
39%Success rate44%
44%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays4
17First downs16
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
49ers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.1949ers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.12Saints: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.0349ers: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.10Saints: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.4949ers: −0.49 expected points added per play
−0.13Saints: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 66 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Saints’s 52 at 52%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Saints 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 3.0% in week 9 against 18.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Saints19.0%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 20.4 points below their season mean of 20.4% and 1.6 times their own 13.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Wishnowsky punts+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:48) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 44, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-36-M.Harris at NO 49.
Q1 4:48 · 49ers · 4th & 22 at SF 13 · gained nothing · +5.42 EP · +11.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
38%
Yards
518
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1678%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.0475%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.1350%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.6057%
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR5+0.010%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0960%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
49ers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
49ers6Saints0
49ers7Saints0
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Saints 4
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 30
Punt4 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Saints 3
2nd quarter52 plays
49ers10Saints0
Field goal1 play
49ers10Saints3
Field goal5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 47
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 41
49ers10Saints9
49ers10Saints10
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 2
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the Saints 41
49ers10Saints16
49ers10Saints17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 43 to the 49ers 3
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 30
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 42
Intercepted9 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Saints 30
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Saints 39
Punt4 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 36 to the 49ers 19
4th quarter56 plays
49ers10Saints20
Field goal8 plays
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 36
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 31
49ers10Saints26
49ers10Saints27
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the 49ers 1
49ers13Saints27
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Saints 22
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the 49ers 42
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the Saints 18
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -9.5
Closing total
49.5
49ers moneyline
+323
Saints moneyline
-387
Saints closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 40 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
49ers 10 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Sean Payton
2nd · 14:44SF +6% win prob(14:44) 41-A.Kamara left end to SF 31 for -6 yards (93-D.Jones).
3rd · 6:59SF +6% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins [91-T.Hendrickson] at NO 24. 27-M.Jenkins to NO 33 for 9 yards (13-R.James). INJURY UPDATE: New Orleans #9 D.Brees, ribs, QUESTIONABLE to return.
49erscategory by categorySaints
49ers6
Saints0
