2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

San Francisco 49ers

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -9.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.

New Orleans Saints 27–13. Biggest swing: Q2 9:30, NO +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:30SF — NO NO ball · 4th & 4NO 57%

(9:30) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to SF 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 40-K.Webster MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NO-12-M.Callaway at SF 21. 12-M.Callaway to SF 21 for no gain (40-K.Webster).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:30NO +12% win prob(9:30) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to SF 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 40-K.Webster MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NO-12-M.Callaway at SF 21. 12-M.Callaway to SF 21 for no gain (40-K.Webster).
Q2 · 14:56NO +10% win prob6-M.Wishnowsky kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to NO 0. 11-D.Harris to SF 25 for 75 yards (43-J.Mayden).
Q1 · 4:48NO +9% win prob(4:48) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 44, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-36-M.Harris at NO 49.
Q1 · 2:13NO +8% win prob(2:13) 4-N.Mullens pass deep right to 82-R.Dwelley to NO 13 for 22 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson) [93-D.Onyemata]. PENALTY on NO-93-D.Onyemata, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at NO 13. Pass 17, YAC 5

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Saints
Offensive plays	66	52
Total yards	281 (edge)	243
Yards per play	4.3	4.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	-0.12 (edge)
Success rate	39%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.49	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

24/38, 247 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

0.2 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

8/13, 76 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.0 expected points added · -12.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Latavius MurrayRB

9 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

8 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

7/8 for 83 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

7/14 for 75 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · -2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	15	60	7:17	Touchdown
2	NO	NO 22	5	8	1:21	Punt
3	SF	SF 25	4	-12	1:42	Punt
4	SF	NO 49	8	38	4:44	Turnover on downs
5	NO	SF 25	5	-6	1:08	Turnover on downs
6	SF	SF 25	6	22	2:19	Punt
7	NO	NO 20	5	21	2:08	Punt
8	NO	SF 21	5	11	2:33	Touchdown
9	SF	SF 14	11	43	4:58	Turnover on downs
10	NO	NO 43	7	57	0:35	Touchdown
11	SF	SF 25	5	15	1:00	Punt
12	NO	NO 20	1	0	0:15	End of half
13	NO	NO 22	6	20	3:17	Punt
14	SF	SF 31	7	32	4:53	Interception
15	NO	NO 33	4	1	2:01	Punt
16	SF	SF 19	4	-4	1:28	Punt
17	NO	NO 36	12	53	6:06	Turnover on downs
18	SF	SF 25	8	5	2:10	Punt
19	NO	NO 29	4	2	1:06	Punt
20	NO	SF 22	4	22	1:30	Touchdown
21	SF	SF 25	7	34	1:35	Turnover on downs
22	NO	NO 25	7	44	2:41	Fumble
23	SF	SF 34	5	48	0:48	Interception
24	NO	NO 20	5	10	2:25	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 60 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	24/38	247	1	2	2	0.2
C.J. Beathard	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jerick McKinnon	18	33	1.8	-10.8
Jamycal Hasty	3	13	4.3	0.2
Kyle Juszczyk	1	5	5.0	0.9
Nick Mullens	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Austin Walter	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Brandon Aiyuk	1	-8	-8.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	7	14	75	1	36%	-2.0
Jordan Reed	5	6	62	0	15%	3.7
Austin Walter	1	1	27	0	3%	1.0
Richie James	3	5	26	0	13%	1.0
Kendrick Bourne	4	5	26	0	13%	0.4
Ross Dwelley	1	2	22	0	5%	1.4
Jerick McKinnon	1	3	13	0	8%	-0.9
Kyle Juszczyk	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Jamycal Hasty	2	2	-4	0	5%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Dre Greenlaw	7	4	0.0	0
Tarvarius Moore	4	2	0.0	0
Fred Warner	1	4	0.0	0
Kerry Hyder	2	3	1.0	0
Jordan Willis	1	3	0.5	0
Jimmie Ward	2	2	0.0	2
Javon Kinlaw	1	2	1.5	0
Jamar Taylor	3	0	0.0	0
Dion Jordan	2	1	0.0	0
Ken Webster	2	0	0.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	8/13	76	1	0	0	0.0
Jameis Winston	6/10	63	0	0	2	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Latavius Murray	9	57	6.3	0	-0.8
Taysom Hill	8	45	5.6	0	-3.0
Alvin Kamara	8	15	1.9	2	0.7
Drew Brees	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0
Jameis Winston	4	-2	-0.5	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alvin Kamara	7	8	83	1	35%	4.3
Michael Thomas	2	7	27	0	30%	-4.7
Deonte Harty	4	4	24	0	17%	3.2
Emmanuel Sanders	1	1	5	0	4%	1.6
Tre'Quan Smith	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4
Jared Cook	0	2	0	0	9%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Demario Davis	8	4	1.0	0	1
Marcus Williams	4	5	0.0	0	1
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	6	2	1.0	0	1
Kwon Alexander	1	3	0.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	3	1	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	2	2	0.0	1	2
David Onyemata	3	0	0.0	0	1
Marcus Davenport	3	0	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	1	2	0.0	0	0
P.J. Williams	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -9.5
Closing total: 49.5
SF moneyline: +323
NO moneyline: -387

Saints closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 40 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: SF 10 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Sean Payton