2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Carolina Panthers

TB -6 ✓O 49.5 ✓15 mph windBuccaneers closed -6 and covered, winning by 23.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 46–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 7:53, CAR +17% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 7:53TB — CAR TB ball · 1st & 10TB 73%

(7:53) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 7:53CAR +17% win prob(7:53) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:53CAR +13% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to CAR 4 for 44 yards (25-T.Pride).
Q1 · 1:54CAR +9% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 12-D.Moore for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:07CAR +8% win prob(:07) 3-J.Charlton punts 67 yards to TB 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-16-B.Zylstra.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Panthers
Offensive plays	74	48
Total yards	544 (edge)	187
Yards per play	7.4 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	0.37 (edge)	-0.24
Success rate	46% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	55%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.54 (edge)	-0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	10/15 (edge)	1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

28/39, 341 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

28.0 expected points added · +13.0% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

18/24, 136 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.9 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

23 att, 192 yds, 1 TD

7.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Mike DavisRB

7 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

4/7 for 96 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/6 for 92 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	5	7	2:02	Punt
2	TB	TB 25	2	7	0:39	Fumble
3	CAR	TB 33	8	33	4:00	Touchdown
4	TB	TB 25	12	75	4:42	Touchdown
5	CAR	CAR 25	6	75	1:52	Touchdown
6	TB	TB 25	15	60	6:46	Turnover on downs
7	CAR	CAR 25	11	32	6:03	Turnover on downs
8	TB	TB 25	11	80	3:29	Touchdown
9	CAR	CAR 25	5	5	0:27	Punt
10	TB	TB 25	11	64	4:02	Turnover on downs
11	CAR	CAR 25	7	24	3:05	Punt
12	TB	TB 2	2	98	0:14	Touchdown
13	CAR	CAR 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
14	TB	CAR 38	9	40	4:21	Turnover on downs
15	CAR	CAR 25	6	10	2:07	Turnover on downs
16	TB	CAR 35	8	13	3:23	Turnover on downs
17	CAR	TB 4	4	4	1:17	Touchdown
18	TB	TB 25	11	75	5:05	Touchdown
19	CAR	CAR 25	5	-4	1:26	Turnover on downs
20	TB	CAR 21	5	21	0:28	Touchdown
21	CAR	CAR 18	6	1	1:28	Punt
22	TB	TB 38	5	11	2:56	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 98 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	28/39	341	3	0	1	28.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ronald Jones	23	192	8.3	1	7.0
Leonard Fournette	8	19	2.4	0	-2.0
Tom Brady	2	2	1.0	1	-0.4
Blaine Gabbert	3	0	0.0	0	0.0
Antonio Brown	1	-3	-3.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	6	6	92	0	16%	6.8
Mike Evans	6	11	77	1	29%	8.2
Antonio Brown	7	8	69	0	21%	3.9
Rob Gronkowski	2	3	51	1	8%	6.0
Cameron Brate	3	3	31	1	8%	7.5
Leonard Fournette	2	3	11	0	8%	-0.3
Ronald Jones	1	2	6	0	5%	-5.0
Scott Miller	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.4
Tyler Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	4	2	0.0	0	0
Lavonte David	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	2	0.0	0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	0	1.0	0	0
Justin Watson	2	1	1.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	2	1	0.0	0	1
Jamel Dean	2	1	0.0	0	1
Steve McLendon	1	2	0.0	0	0
Ndamukong Suh	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	2	1	1.0	1	1

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	18/24	136	2	1	1	-3.9
P.J. Walker	2/4	12	0	0	1	-4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	7	32	4.6	0	0.3
Teddy Bridgewater	3	16	5.3	1	0.9
Rodney Smith	3	13	4.3	0	-0.1
Curtis Samuel	3	4	1.3	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	4	7	96	1	25%	0.6
Robbie Chosen	4	6	21	0	21%	-0.1
Mike Davis	4	5	12	0	18%	-0.8
Curtis Samuel	3	5	8	0	18%	-2.2
Colin Thompson	1	1	7	1	4%	1.3
Ian Thomas	1	1	7	0	4%	1.3
Rodney Smith	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.6
Alex Armah	2	2	-5	0	7%	-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Corn Elder	5	3	0
Shaq Thompson	5	2	0
Troy Pride	5	2	0
Tahir Whitehead	1	4	0
Zach Kerr	2	3	0
Tre Boston	2	3	0
Jermaine Carter	2	2	0
Juston Burris	1	3	0
Rasul Douglas	3	1	1
Yetur Gross-Matos	1	3	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -6
Closing total: 49.5
TB moneyline: -259
CAR moneyline: +226

Buccaneers closed -6 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 69 — over by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: TB 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Matt Rhule

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.