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2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Buccaneers163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(7:53) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.7 for PanthersExpected points −7.70 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 15 points higher than the market did.play 103
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 7:53CAR +17% win prob(7:53) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:53CAR +13% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to CAR 4 for 44 yards (25-T.Pride).
1st · 1:54CAR +9% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 12-D.Moore for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:07CAR +8% win prob(:07) 3-J.Charlton punts 67 yards to TB 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-16-B.Zylstra.
3rd · 12:43CAR +8% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at CAR 23 for 31 yards (33-T.Boston). CAR-42-S.Franklin was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
1st · 12:36TB +8% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 27-R.Jones to TB 32 for 6 yards (54-S.Thompson). FUMBLES (54-S.Thompson), RECOVERED by CAR-33-T.Boston at TB 33.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Succop's 24-yard field goal with 11:02 left in the 3rd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th4:30Rob Gronkowski·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+746–23
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPanthers
Buccaneers8–0Panthers
544Total yards187
7.4Yards per play3.9
46%Success rate44%
67%Third-down rate11%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays3
27First downs13
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.37Buccaneers: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.24Panthers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.54Buccaneers: +0.54 expected points added per play
−0.30Panthers: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Buccaneers: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.06Panthers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 74 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Panthers’s 48 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 9, Panthers 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 87.9% in week 9 against 46.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points.
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: +18.2 pts in week 9 against +0.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
74 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Panthers17.1%
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 46.6%, 13.5 points below their season mean of 60.1% and 1.1 times their own 12.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Jones up+21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:53) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 7:53 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at TB 2 · gained 98 · +7.70 EP · +21.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 98 yards from the TB 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
42%
Yards
731
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.0965%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.3579%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1532%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+1.4033%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.6350%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1120%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Panthers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 26
Buccaneers0Panthers6
Buccaneers0Panthers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 7
Buccaneers6Panthers7
Buccaneers7Panthers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 5
Buccaneers7Panthers13
Buccaneers7Panthers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 24
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 35
2nd quarter43 plays
Buccaneers10Panthers14
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Panthers 5
Buccaneers10Panthers17
Field goal15 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Buccaneers16Panthers17
Buccaneers17Panthers17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 3
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 30
3rd quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Buccaneers20Panthers17
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 6
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 49
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Buccaneers26Panthers17
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Buccaneers29Panthers17
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Panthers 1
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 40
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 34
4th quarter45 plays
Buccaneers32Panthers17
Field goal5 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Panthers 14
Buccaneers32Panthers23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 4 to the Buccaneers 3
Buccaneers38Panthers23
Buccaneers39Panthers23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 1
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 31
Buccaneers45Panthers23
Buccaneers46Panthers23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 7
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Buccaneers 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
