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Washington Commanders 27 at Detroit Lions 30. Final.
Lions -2.5 ✓O 46 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 10
Detroit Lions 30, Commanders 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:19, 4th and 5, on Alex Smith — 12.4 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:19 · 4th and 5
Alex Smith
Commanders
(1:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (23-D.Trufant). PENALTY on DET-23-D.Trufant, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
Dome
Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Detroit Lions 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:19, Commanders +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marvin HallLionsQ1 7:20(7:20) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-M.Hall for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-29-K.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
12.0pts
Matt PraterLionsQ4 0:03(:03) 5-M.Prater 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
12.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Lions at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 1 giveaway.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 15 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 10 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Commanders183 of 193 plays carry both curves
(1:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (23-D.Trufant). PENALTY on DET-23-D.Trufant, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
Swing −12.4 for LionsExpected points −1.72 for LionsThe model had Commanders 3 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:19DET +12% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (23-D.Trufant). PENALTY on DET-23-D.Trufant, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
4th · 0:03DET +12% win prob(:03) 5-M.Prater 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
1st · 7:20DET +12% win prob(7:20) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-M.Hall for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-29-K.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 0:06DET +12% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones to WAS 41 for 9 yards.
4th · 1:56DET +11% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at WAS 34 for 26 yards (26-D.Harmon).
2nd · 12:01DET +10% win prob(12:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 11-M.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Prater's 59-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:20Marvin Hall·55-yd TD catch55-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+70–7
1st3:30Dustin Hopkins·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+33–7
2nd12:01Marvin Jones·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+73–14
2nd0:13Matt Prater·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap D.Muhlbach+33–17
3rd8:06D'Andre Swift·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+73–24
4th2:42Matt Prater·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap D.Muhlbach+324–27
4th0:21Dustin Hopkins·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+327–27
4th0:03Matt Prater·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap D.MuhlbachLead never changed again+327–30
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryLions
Commanders5–3Lions
465Total yards372
5.7Yards per play6.8
51%Success rate47%
47%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays7
30First downs19
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Commanders: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.19Lions: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Commanders: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.33Lions: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Commanders: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.03Lions: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 82 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Lions’s 55 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 5, Lions 4.
NoteCommanders outgained Lions 465-372 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.1% in week 9 against 2.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: +13.5 pts in week 9 against +0.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
82 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.8 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Lions13.8%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 12.8 points below their season mean of 15.7% and 1.5 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%88 snaps
75Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%88 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%88 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%88 snaps
11Alex SmithQB · Every snap100%88 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Every snap99%87 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time98%86 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Full-time94%83 snaps
78Cornelius LucasT · Heavy rotation73%64 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Heavy rotation70%62 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Rotational45%40 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Rotational38%33 snaps
83Isaiah WrightWR · Rotational33%29 snaps
72David SharpeT · Rotational27%24 snaps
34Peyton BarberRB · Situational11%10 snaps
84Jeff BadetWR · Situational6%5 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Situational5%4 snaps
88Temarrick HemingwayTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Jared NorrisOLBThomas DavisOLBKyle AllenQBGeron ChristianTDontrelle InmanWRRobert FosterWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Dwayne HaskinsQB
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%59 snaps
65Tyrell CrosbyT · Every snap100%59 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%59 snaps
76Oday AboushiG · Every snap100%59 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%59 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time86%51 snaps
32D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation73%43 snaps
88T.J. HockensonTE · Heavy rotation66%39 snaps
17Marvin HallWR · Heavy rotation64%38 snaps
83Jesse JamesTE · Heavy rotation54%32 snaps
87Quintez CephusWR · Heavy rotation51%30 snaps
80Danny AmendolaWR · Rotational39%23 snaps
89Isaac NautaTE · Situational22%13 snaps
33Kerryon JohnsonRB · Situational15%9 snaps
28Adrian PetersonRB · Situational12%7 snaps
45Jason CabindaMLB · Situational10%6 snaps
67Matt NelsonT · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Nicholas WilliamsDTLogan StenbergGJarrad DavisMLBDavid BloughQBHalapoulivaati VaitaiTKenny GolladayWRJamal AgnewWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matt Prater+22% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 5-M.Prater 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q4 0:03 · Lions · 2nd & 1 at WAS 41 · gained nothing · +1.44 EP · +21.8% win probability
181 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 92 yards from the DET 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
48%
Yards
836
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR64+0.2378%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1776%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.3943%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3864%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.0820%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2320%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Lions 14
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Commanders0Lions6
Commanders0Lions7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 8 to the Lions 45
Commanders3Lions7
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Lions 20
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Commanders 44
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Commanders 12
Commanders3Lions13
Commanders3Lions14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Commanders 27
No good9 plays, from midfield to the Lions 22
Punt4 plays
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Lions 33
Commanders3Lions17
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Commanders 35
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Commanders3Lions23
Commanders3Lions24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Commanders 15
Commanders9Lions24
Commanders10Lions24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Lions 2
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 33
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 49
4th quarter68 plays
Commanders16Lions24
Commanders17Lions24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Lions 2
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 28
Commanders23Lions24
Commanders24Lions24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Lions 5
Commanders24Lions27
Field goal14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Commanders 19
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Commanders27Lions27
Field goal23 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Lions 23
Commanders27Lions30
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Commanders 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Commanderscategory by categoryLions
Commanders0
Lions6
