2020 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 2020 · Ford Field

Washington Commanders

Detroit LionsWinner

DET -2.5 ✓O 46 ✓DomeLions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Detroit Lions 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:19, DET +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:19WAS — DET WAS ball · 4th & 5DET 82%

(1:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (23-D.Trufant). PENALTY on DET-23-D.Trufant, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:19DET +12% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (23-D.Trufant). PENALTY on DET-23-D.Trufant, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
Q4 · 0:03DET +12% win prob(:03) 5-M.Prater 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q1 · 7:20DET +12% win prob(7:20) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-M.Hall for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-29-K.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 · 0:06DET +12% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones to WAS 41 for 9 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Lions
Offensive plays	82	55
Total yards	465 (edge)	372
Yards per play	5.7	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	51% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	71%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20	0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	30 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Commanders outgained Lions 465–372 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

38/55, 390 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

16.1 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

24/33, 276 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

11.2 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

16 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

13 att, 45 yds, 2 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Marvin JonesWR

8/10 for 96 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/9 for 95 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	11	37	5:56	Punt
2	DET	DET 8	6	92	1:52	Touchdown
3	WAS	WAS 26	10	54	3:47	Turnover on downs
4	DET	DET 25	8	16	2:56	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 7	4	5	1:27	Punt
6	DET	DET 47	7	53	2:07	Touchdown
7	WAS	50	9	25	3:54	Turnover on downs
8	DET	DET 33	4	0	1:28	Punt
9	WAS	WAS 16	11	48	5:19	Fumble
10	DET	DET 31	7	39	1:06	Turnover on downs
11	WAS	WAS 32	2	0	0:08	End of half
12	DET	DET 25	13	85	7:02	Touchdown
13	WAS	WAS 18	13	82	5:28	Touchdown
14	DET	DET 25	5	8	1:30	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 16	12	84	4:39	Touchdown
16	DET	DET 25	5	4	2:28	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 34	7	61	2:44	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 25	12	56	3:32	Turnover on downs
19	WAS	WAS 11	18	69	2:21	Turnover on downs
20	DET	DET 25	4	19	0:16	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 92 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	38/55	390	0	0	2	16.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	13	45	3.5	2	0.5
Terry McLaurin	1	27	27.0	0	1.9
Peyton Barber	2	7	3.5	0	-0.3
J.D. McKissic	8	6	0.8	1	-1.0
Alex Smith	2	4	2.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	7	9	95	17%	1.6
Logan Thomas	4	5	66	10%	6.9
Isaiah Wright	6	6	59	12%	5.0
Cam Sims	4	5	54	10%	5.8
Steven Sims	5	6	46	12%	2.0
J.D. McKissic	7	15	43	29%	-3.3
Antonio Gibson	4	4	20	8%	-1.3
Peyton Barber	1	1	7	2%	0.6
Jeff Badet	0	1	0	2%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Kamren Curl	6	3	1.0
Kendall Fuller	6	2	0.0
Jon Bostic	4	3	0.0
Cole Holcomb	4	2	0.0
Deshazor Everett	1	2	0.0
Jonathan Allen	2	1	0.0
Ronald Darby	3	0	0.0
Kevin Pierre-Louis	2	0	0.0
Tim Settle	1	1	0.0
Ryan Anderson	1	0	0.0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	24/33	276	3	0	1	11.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Andre Swift	16	81	5.1	-0.5
Adrian Peterson	4	21	5.3	-0.0
Kerryon Johnson	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	8	10	96	1	31%	4.6
D'Andre Swift	5	5	68	1	16%	6.5
Marvin Hall	2	3	61	1	9%	3.0
T.J. Hockenson	2	4	13	0	13%	0.7
Quintez Cephus	1	2	10	0	6%	-0.4
Danny Amendola	3	3	10	0	9%	-0.1
Adrian Peterson	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Jesse James	2	3	9	0	9%	-0.9
Isaac Nauta	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamie Collins	9	4	0.0	0
Justin Coleman	8	2	0.0	0
Jayron Kearse	7	1	0.0	0
Reggie Ragland	4	2	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	5	1	0.0	0
Desmond Trufant	5	0	0.0	0
Romeo Okwara	2	2	1.0	0
Amani Oruwariye	3	1	0.0	0
Everson Griffen	2	1	1.0	0
Frank Herron	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -2.5
Closing total: 46
WAS moneyline: +123
DET moneyline: -136

Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: WAS 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Matt Patricia