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Arizona Cardinals 21 at Seattle Seahawks 28. Final.
Seahawks -3 ✓U 56.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 11
Seattle Seahawks 28, Cardinals 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:20, 1st and 10, on Russell Wilson — 10.8 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:20 · 1st and 10
Russell Wilson
Seahawks
(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf (21-P.Peterson). PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at SEA 45 - No Play. Penalty on ARI-20-D.Kirkpatrick, Defensive Holding, declined.
Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Seattle Seahawks 28–21. Biggest swing: Q2 0:20, Seahawks +10.8% win probability on one snap.
10.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dan ArnoldCardinalsQ3 10:11(10:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-D.Arnold for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.5pts
Kyler MurraySeahawksQ4 9:23(9:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on ARI-1-K.Murray, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at ARI 14.
9.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Seahawks at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 4 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.18 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Cardinals167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf (21-P.Peterson). PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at SEA 45 - No Play. Penalty on ARI-20-D.Kirkpatrick, De
Swing +10.8 for SeahawksExpected points +2.60 for SeahawksModel and market agree here.play 89
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:20SEA +11% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf (21-P.Peterson). PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at SEA 45 - No Play. Penalty on ARI-20-D.Kirkpatrick, Defensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 10:11SEA +9% win prob(10:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-D.Arnold for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:23ARI +9% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on ARI-1-K.Murray, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at ARI 14.
4th · 0:38ARI +9% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at SEA 33 for -6 yards (43-C.Dunlap).
2nd · 9:18SEA +7% win prob(9:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hyde right guard to ARI 11 for 17 yards (48-I.Simmons).
1st · 8:53SEA +6% win prob(8:53) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-M.Golden].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Lockett's 11-yard touchdown catch with 8:32 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:53DK Metcalf·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+70–7
2nd8:32Tyler Lockett·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · kick no good, hit left uprightLead never changed again+67–13
2nd0:05Jason Myers·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+37–16
4th9:18Seahawks·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+221–25
4th2:24Jason Myers·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+321–28
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categorySeahawks
Cardinals2–6Seahawks
314Total yards348
5.0Yards per play5.7
48%Success rate57%
55%Third-down rate57%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays8
22First downs20
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Cardinals: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.21Seahawks: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Cardinals: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.29Seahawks: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Cardinals: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 63 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 61 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Seahawks 5.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's early-down pass rate, 74.5%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 60.7% in week 1.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 10.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
ARI's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.8 pts in week 10 against +8.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.8% in week 10 against 21.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Seahawks14.9%
right on their number · +0.0 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 74.5%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 55.8% and 2.1 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
49 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
64J.R. SweezyG · Every snap100%67 snaps
67Justin PughG · Every snap100%67 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%67 snaps
74D.J. HumphriesT · Every snap100%67 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
52Mason ColeC · Every snap100%67 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Full-time91%61 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Full-time91%61 snaps
11Larry FitzgeraldWR · Full-time82%55 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Heavy rotation57%38 snaps
29Chase EdmondsRB · Heavy rotation54%36 snaps
41Kenyan DrakeRB · Rotational49%33 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational39%26 snaps
17Andy IsabellaWR · Rotational27%18 snaps
89Evan BaylisTE · Situational9%6 snaps
79Josh JonesT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Charles WashingtonFSBrett HundleyQBEno BenjaminRBJoshua MilesTJustin MurrayTDarrell DanielsTEKeeSean JohnsonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf (21-P.Peterson). PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at SEA 45 - No Play. Penalty on ARI-20-D.Kirkpatrick, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q2 0:20 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 45 · gained nothing · +2.60 EP · +8.7% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 90 yards from the ARI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
46%
Yards
661
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2058%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0478%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.3636%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR16+0.3294%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1450%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Cardinals0Seahawks6
Cardinals0Seahawks7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 25
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 28
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 31
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 39
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 28
The period ended5 plays, from midfield to the Seahawks 38
2nd quarter53 plays
Cardinals6Seahawks7
Cardinals7Seahawks7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the Seahawks 2
Cardinals7Seahawks13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 11
Punt12 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Seahawks 48
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Seahawks 20
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 38 to the Cardinals 47
Cardinals7Seahawks16
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Cardinals 9
3rd quarter41 plays
Cardinals13Seahawks16
Cardinals14Seahawks16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Seahawks 4
Cardinals14Seahawks22
Cardinals14Seahawks23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Cardinals 2
The period ended14 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Seahawks 33
4th quarter44 plays
Cardinals20Seahawks23
Cardinals21Seahawks23
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 3
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 48
Cardinals21Seahawks25
Cardinals21Seahawks28
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Cardinals 12
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Seahawks 27
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -3
Closing total
56.5
Cardinals moneyline
+147
Seahawks moneyline
-164
Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 56.5; the game landed 49 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 47°F at kickoff; breezy at 15 mph out of the south; 0.03 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Cardinals 4 days · Seahawks 4 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Pete Carroll
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 14:31SEA +6% win prob(14:31) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 87-M.Williams pushed ob at SEA 2 for 25 yards (37-Q.Diggs) [54-B.Wagner].
3rd · 6:31SEA +6% win prob(6:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to ARI 32 for 5 yards (48-I.Simmons) [44-M.Golden]. PENALTY on ARI-20-D.Kirkpatrick, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 32.
Cardinalscategory by categorySeahawks
Cardinals0
Seahawks6
