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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Falcons161 of 174 plays carry both curves
(9:14) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +10.7 for SaintsExpected points +3.68 for SaintsThe model had Falcons 3 points higher than the market did.play 104
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:14NO +11% win prob(9:14) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:22NO +11% win prob(14:22) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-C.Ridley to NO 26 for 46 yards (20-J.Jenkins). Pass 42, YAC 4
2nd · 14:01NO +10% win prob(14:01) 7-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-S.Hofrichter.
2nd · 0:33ATL +10% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NO 47 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan).
2nd · 3:09NO +9% win prob(3:09) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short left to 17-E.Sanders to ATL 12 for 45 yards (34-D.Dennard). FUMBLES (34-D.Dennard), RECOVERED by ATL-22-K.Neal at ATL 12. 22-K.Neal to ATL 26 for 14 yards (62-N.Easton). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 17-E.Sanders to ATL 13 for 44 yards (22-K.Neal). Pass 44, YAC 0
2nd · 1:51NO +8% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alvin Kamara's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 1:51 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:26Younghoe Koo·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+33–0
1st2:50Wil Lutz·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–3
2nd14:01Younghoe Koo·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+36–3
2nd4:36Younghoe Koo·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+39–3
2nd1:51Alvin Kamara·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+79–10
Saints ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Falcons: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.04Saints: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.35Falcons: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.09Saints: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Falcons: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.01Saints: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 59 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Saints’s 62 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 1, Saints 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints26.7%
leaned — got home · +9.6 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.7%, 9.6 points above their season mean of 17.0% and 1.5 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:22) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-C.Ridley to NO 26 for 46 yards (20-J.Jenkins). Pass 42, YAC 4
Q1 14:22 · Falcons · 2nd & 7 at ATL 28 · gained 46 · +3.79 EP · +12.8% win probability
159 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 80 yards from the NO 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
34%
Yards
624
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2981%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.0146%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.3656%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.4163%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1525%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1880%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5-0.320%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Falcons3Saints0
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 10
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 33
Punt5 plays
Falcons3Saints3
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Falcons 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 45
2nd quarter55 plays
Falcons6Saints3
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Saints 33
No good8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 32
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 43 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 24
Falcons9Saints3
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Saints 34
Falcons9Saints9
Falcons9Saints10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Falcons 3
Intercepted12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 39
3rd quarter35 plays
Falcons9Saints16
Falcons9Saints17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Falcons 2
Punt6 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Falcons 41
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Falcons 15
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Falcons 34
4th quarter47 plays
Falcons9Saints23
Falcons9Saints24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Falcons 10
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 20
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Falcons 42
Intercepted10 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Saints 43
Punt15 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Falcons 39
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 6 to the Falcons 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -3.5
Closing total
49.5
Falcons moneyline
+162
Saints moneyline
-181
Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 33 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Falcons 14 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Sean Payton
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 12:12NO +8% win prob(12:12) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill pass short left to 28-L.Murray to ATL 21 for 25 yards (43-M.Walker). Pass -5, YAC 30
1st · 10:05ATL +7% win prob(10:05) 7-T.Hill sacked at NO 24 for -9 yards (sack split by 93-A.Bailey and 97-G.Jarrett). Penalty on NO-75-A.Peat, Offensive Holding, declined.
