2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -3.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 15.

New Orleans Saints 24–9. Biggest swing: Q3 9:14, NO +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 9:14ATL — NO NO ball · 4th & 2NO 73%

(9:14) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 9:14NO +11% win prob(9:14) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:22NO +11% win prob(14:22) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-C.Ridley to NO 26 for 46 yards (20-J.Jenkins). Pass 42, YAC 4
Q2 · 14:01NO +10% win prob(14:01) 7-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-S.Hofrichter.
Q2 · 0:33ATL +10% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NO 47 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Saints
Offensive plays	59	62
Total yards	248	376 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.31	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	25%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	2/14	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	8	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Taysom HillTE

18/23, 233 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.8 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

19/37, 232 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-15.6 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

10 att, 49 yds, 2 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Latavius MurrayRB

12 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

9/12 for 104 yds, 0 TD

52% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

5/9 for 90 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	8	65	3:39	Turnover on downs
2	NO	NO 24	5	0	1:39	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 32	4	-1	2:25	Punt
4	NO	NO 30	9	56	4:30	Turnover on downs
5	ATL	ATL 25	11	37	3:51	Turnover on downs
6	NO	NO 25	8	35	2:47	Turnover on downs
7	ATL	ATL 43	4	6	2:12	Punt
8	NO	NO 20	4	4	1:32	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 30	8	36	2:54	Turnover on downs
10	NO	NO 20	9	80	2:45	Touchdown
11	ATL	ATL 25	8	18	1:46	Interception
12	NO	NO 20	12	75	5:49	Touchdown
13	ATL	ATL 25	5	-9	2:10	Punt
14	NO	NO 43	6	22	3:39	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 12	4	3	1:41	Punt
16	NO	NO 47	7	45	4:00	Touchdown
17	ATL	ATL 17	5	2	1:34	Punt
18	NO	NO 35	5	41	2:56	Fumble
19	ATL	ATL 18	10	39	3:08	Interception
20	NO	NO 40	10	18	4:04	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 6	5	52	0:59	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	19/37	232	0	2	8	-15.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Todd Gurley	8	26	3.3	-1.9
Brian Hill	4	18	4.5	-0.6
Ito Smith	1	5	5.0	0.1
Brandon Powell	1	3	3.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	5	9	90	26%	-1.1
Russell Gage	7	12	58	35%	0.1
Julio Jones	2	2	39	6%	5.7
Christian Blake	2	4	28	12%	-1.5
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	1	10	3%	0.6
Keith Smith	1	1	4	3%	-0.3
Todd Gurley	1	2	3	6%	-1.3
Hayden Hurst	0	2	0	6%	-2.7
Luke Stocker	0	1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Keanu Neal	7	1	0.0
Darqueze Dennard	6	1	0.0
Grady Jarrett	4	3	0.5
Deion Jones	5	1	1.0
Foyesade Oluokun	2	4	0.0
A.J. Terrell	5	1	0.0
Steven Means	4	0	0.0
Jacob Tuioti-Mariner	2	1	0.0
Brian Hill	2	0	0.0
Edmond Robinson	1	1	0.0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taysom Hill	18/23	233	0	0	3	1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Taysom Hill	10	49	4.9	2	2.5
Latavius Murray	12	49	4.1	0	-3.1
Alvin Kamara	13	45	3.5	1	-0.4
Deonte Harty	1	23	23.0	0	1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	9	12	104	52%	2.4
Emmanuel Sanders	4	5	66	22%	2.6
Latavius Murray	2	2	36	9%	2.0
Adam Trautman	1	1	19	4%	1.3
Jared Cook	1	1	6	4%	2.1
Deonte Harty	1	1	2	4%	-1.0
Alvin Kamara	0	1	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Demario Davis	4	3	1.0	0	1
Janoris Jenkins	4	1	0.0	1	5
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	2	2	0.0	0	2
Cameron Jordan	4	0	3.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ryan Glasgow	2	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Williams	2	1	0.0	1	1
David Onyemata	3	0	2.0	0	0
Patrick Robinson	3	0	0.0	0	0
P.J. Williams	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3.5
Closing total: 49.5
ATL moneyline: +162
NO moneyline: -181

Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 33 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: ATL 14 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.