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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 9 at Washington Commanders 20. Final.
Commanders -2 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 11
Washington Commanders 20, Bengals 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:26, 1st and 10, on J.Bates — 11.5 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:26 · 1st and 10
J.Bates
Bengals
(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III (70-M.Hunt) at CIN 39. 30-J.Bates III to WAS 49 for 12 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Commanders closed -2 and covered, winning by 11.
Washington Commanders 20–9. Biggest swing: Q2 0:26, Bengals +11.5% win probability on one snap.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe BurrowCommandersQ2 12:09(12:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end to WAS 1 for 2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-31-K.Curl at WAS -1. 31-K.Curl to WAS 1 for 2 yards (67-Q.Spain). FUMBLES (67-Q.Spain), recovered by WAS-23-R.Darby at WAS -1. 23-R.Darby tackled in End Zone, SAFETY NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CIN-67-Q.Spain, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 3 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end to WAS 1 for 2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-23-R.Darby at WAS -1. Touchback. Penalty on CIN-67-Q.Spain, Offensive Holding, declined.
10.6pts
Randy BullockBengalsQ2 1:44(1:44) 4-R.Bullock 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
10.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bengals at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders won this one — 4 of 12 on third down, against Bengals at 3 of 13 on third down.
(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III (70-M.Hunt) at CIN 39. 30-J.Bates III to WAS 49 for 12 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Swing −11.5 for CommandersExpected points −2.03 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 2 points higher than the market did.play 83
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:26CIN +12% win prob(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III (70-M.Hunt) at CIN 39. 30-J.Bates III to WAS 49 for 12 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
2nd · 1:44WAS +11% win prob(1:44) 4-R.Bullock 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
2nd · 12:09CIN +11% win prob(12:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end to WAS 1 for 2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-31-K.Curl at WAS -1. 31-K.Curl to WAS 1 for 2 yards (67-Q.Spain). FUMBLES (67-Q.Spain), recovered by WAS-23-R.Darby at WAS -1. 23-R.Darby tackled in End Zone, SAFETY NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CIN-67-Q.Spain, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 3 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end to WAS 1 for 2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-23-R.Darby at WAS -1. Touchback. Penalty on CIN-67-Q.Spain, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 0:04CIN +9% win prob(:04) 4-R.Bullock 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
1st · 5:47CIN +9% win prob(5:47) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Steven Sims's 3-yard touchdown catch with 9:04 left in the 3rd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
2nd7:38A.J. Green·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow · kick no good, wide right+66–7
2nd1:44Randy Bullock·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+39–7
3rd9:04Steven Sims·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Alex Smithfrom Alex SmithLead never changed again+79–14
3rd4:50Dustin Hopkins·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+39–17
4th9:48Dustin Hopkins·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+39–20
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryCommanders
Bengals0–9Commanders
272Total yards328
4.1Yards per play5.7
42%Success rate43%
23%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays9
16First downs19
4Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Bengals: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.04Commanders: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Bengals: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.13Commanders: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Bengals: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.04Commanders: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 66 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Commanders’s 58 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Commanders 4.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
WAS's pass rate over expected, −8.4 pts, is past their previous low of −5.7 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
low through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.3 points.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.9% in week 10 against 22.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Commanders22.0%
inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.4 pts, 9.1 points below their season mean of 0.7 pts and 1.5 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Smith pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III (70-M.Hunt) at CIN 39. 30-J.Bates III to WAS 49 for 12 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Q2 0:26 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at CIN 49 · gained nothing · -2.03 EP · −16.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 76 yards from the WAS 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
40%
Yards
597
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.3076%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1260%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.3843%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1455%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.2780%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 43
No good14 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Commanders 15
Bengals0Commanders6
Bengals0Commanders7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Bengals 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Commanders 27
2nd quarter51 plays
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 3
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 23
Bengals6Commanders7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Commanders 5
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Bengals9Commanders7
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Commanders 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Bengals 49
No good5 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Commanders 40
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 43
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 2 to the Bengals 10
Bengals9Commanders13
Bengals9Commanders14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Bengals 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 32
Bengals9Commanders17
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Bengals 14
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 38
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 3 to the Commanders 23
4th quarter41 plays
Bengals9Commanders20
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Bengals 26
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 31
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Bengals 44
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 24
No good6 plays
Intercepted1 play
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Bengals 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Bengalscategory by categoryCommanders
Bengals0
Commanders6
