2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

Minnesota Vikings

MIN -7 upsetO 50 ✓DomeVikings closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 12:11, MIN +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:11DAL — MIN DAL ball · 2nd & 4MIN 76%

(12:11) 20-T.Pollard right tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:11MIN +25% win prob(12:11) 20-T.Pollard right tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:05MIN +21% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 19-A.Cooper pushed ob at MIN 19 for 10 yards (20-J.Gladney).
Q4 · 9:44MIN +20% win prob(9:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:03DAL +18% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 33-D.Cook to DAL 27 for 7 yards (37-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (37-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 31. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 31 for no gain. Handoff to 54-J.Smith to MIN 48 for 21 yards (8-K.Cousins; 12-C.Beebe). MIN-33-D.Cook was injured during the play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Vikings
Offensive plays	63	61
Total yards	380	430 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	52% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	54%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.30 (edge)	0.04
Third downs	5/11	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23	23
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Vikings outgained Cowboys 430–380 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

22/30, 314 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

7.7 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Andy DaltonQB

22/32, 203 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-0.2 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

27 att, 115 yds, 1 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

21 att, 103 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

8/11 for 123 yds, 2 TD

39% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

3/5 for 86 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	5	7	1:29	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 21	5	9	2:34	Fumble
3	DAL	MIN 30	4	30	1:31	Touchdown
4	MIN	MIN 25	14	85	7:15	Touchdown
5	DAL	DAL 25	11	47	4:07	Interception
6	MIN	MIN 17	5	32	3:08	Punt
7	DAL	DAL 48	10	52	5:01	Touchdown
8	MIN	MIN 25	5	11	1:13	Punt
9	DAL	DAL 25	5	22	1:51	Turnover on downs
10	MIN	MIN 38	3	31	1:02	Fumble
11	DAL	MIN 48	5	47	0:47	Turnover on downs
12	MIN	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
13	MIN	MIN 25	11	75	5:10	Touchdown
14	DAL	DAL 12	8	24	3:06	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 19	13	96	6:47	Touchdown
16	DAL	DAL 25	7	77	2:55	Touchdown
17	MIN	MIN 25	7	75	2:25	Touchdown
18	DAL	DAL 25	8	8	3:43	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 15	5	12	1:54	Punt
20	DAL	DAL 39	12	66	2:23	Touchdown
21	MIN	MIN 25	5	4	0:19	Turnover on downs
22	DAL	MIN 29	2	0	1:18	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 96 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	22/32	203	3	1	1	-0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	21	103	4.9	0	2.5
Tony Pollard	5	60	12.0	1	2.9
CeeDee Lamb	2	12	6.0	0	3.3
Andy Dalton	3	5	1.7	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	6	7	81	0	23%	7.9
CeeDee Lamb	4	6	34	1	19%	-1.7
Michael Gallup	2	5	29	0	16%	-0.5
Dalton Schultz	4	6	25	1	19%	-2.0
Blake Bell	1	1	13	0	3%	1.0
Ezekiel Elliott	2	2	11	1	6%	1.6
Cedrick Wilson	1	2	7	0	6%	-2.9
Noah Brown	1	1	6	0	3%	0.5
Andy Dalton	1	1	-3	0	3%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Leighton Vander Esch	4	8	0.0
Chidobe Awuzie	5	4	0.0
Donovan Wilson	2	7	0.5
Jaylon Smith	3	4	1.0
Dorance Armstrong	3	2	0.0
Demarcus Lawrence	1	3	0.5
Anthony Brown	2	1	0.0
Aldon Smith	3	0	0.0
Rashard Robinson	3	0	0.0
Antwaun Woods	1	2	0.0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	22/30	314	3	0	2	7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	27	115	4.3	1	0.2
Alexander Mattison	1	6	6.0	0	0.9
Kirk Cousins	1	4	4.0	0	1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	8	11	123	2	39%	5.0
Justin Jefferson	3	5	86	1	18%	5.3
Dalvin Cook	5	5	45	0	18%	-3.6
Kyle Rudolph	3	3	28	0	11%	2.7
Irv Smith	2	2	23	0	7%	2.6
Olabisi Johnson	1	1	9	0	4%	-0.7
C.J. Ham	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Wilson	4	5	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	4	4	0.0	0	0
Eric Kendricks	2	6	0.0	1	2
Jaleel Johnson	3	4	1.0	0	0
Anthony Harris	3	4	0.0	0	0
Jalyn Holmes	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jeff Gladney	3	2	0.0	0	0
Kris Boyd	2	2	0.0	0	1
Kirk Cousins	1	1	0.0	0	0
Armon Watts	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -7
Closing total: 50
DAL moneyline: +261
MIN moneyline: -304

Vikings closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50; the game landed 59 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: DAL 14 days · MIN 6 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Mike Zimmer