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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Cowboys161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(12:11) 20-T.Pollard right tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −24.6 for VikingsExpected points −4.00 for VikingsThe model had Cowboys 7 points higher than the market did.play 125
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:11MIN +25% win prob(12:11) 20-T.Pollard right tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:05MIN +21% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 19-A.Cooper pushed ob at MIN 19 for 10 yards (20-J.Gladney).
4th · 9:44MIN +20% win prob(9:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:03DAL +18% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 33-D.Cook to DAL 27 for 7 yards (37-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (37-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 31. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 31 for no gain. Handoff to 54-J.Smith to MIN 48 for 21 yards (8-K.Cousins; 12-C.Beebe). MIN-33-D.Cook was injured during the play.
4th · 1:24DAL +18% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-A.Thielen [58-A.Smith].
2nd · 1:55DAL +17% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 11-C.Wilson.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dalton Schultz's 2-yard touchdown catch with 1:43 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:32Ezekiel Elliott·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton · kick blocked by E.Wilson+66–0
4th1:43Dalton Schultz·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy DaltonLead never changed again+731–28
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryVikings
Cowboys3–4Vikings
380Total yards430
6.0Yards per play7.0
52%Success rate49%
45%Third-down rate60%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays9
23First downs23
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.09Vikings: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Cowboys: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.13Vikings: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.30Cowboys: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.04Vikings: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 63 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Vikings’s 61 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings outgained Cowboys 430-380 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 33.3% in week 10 against 5.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +11.3 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Vikings5.9%
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.2%, 11.3 points above their season mean of 12.9% and 1.5 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass+24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:05) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 19-A.Cooper pushed ob at MIN 19 for 10 yards (20-J.Gladney).
Q4 2:05 · Cowboys · 4th & 6 at MIN 29 · gained 10 · +2.69 EP · +23.8% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 81 yards from the MIN 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
44%
Yards
808
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2956%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28+0.2039%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4358%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0322%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR9-1.1378%
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR7+0.7986%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 32
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 39
Cowboys6Vikings0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 6
Cowboys6Vikings6
Cowboys6Vikings7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 41
2nd quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from midfield to the Vikings 28
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 45
Cowboys12Vikings7
Cowboys13Vikings7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 48 to the Vikings 4
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Vikings 38
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Cowboys 34
Cowboys16Vikings7
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Vikings 1
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Cowboys16Vikings13
Cowboys16Vikings14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cowboys 1
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 41
The period ended12 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Cowboys 9
4th quarter53 plays
Cowboys16Vikings20
Cowboys16Vikings21
Touchdown2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cowboys22Vikings21
Cowboys24Vikings21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Vikings 42
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Cowboys24Vikings27
Cowboys24Vikings28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cowboys 39
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 36
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Cowboys30Vikings28
Cowboys31Vikings28
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Vikings 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 29
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -7
Closing total
50
Cowboys moneyline
+261
Vikings moneyline
-304
Vikings closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50; the game landed 59 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Cowboys 14 days · Vikings 6 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Mike Zimmer
4th · 1:43
MIN +17% win prob
(1:43) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:11DAL +14% win prob(13:11) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks at MIN 17. 54-E.Kendricks to MIN 17 for no gain (86-D.Schultz).
