2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium

Detroit Lions

Carolina PanthersWinner

DET -3 upsetU 47 ✓Lions closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 20–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:02, DET +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:02DET — CAR DET ball · 3rd & 5CAR 57%

(1:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford Aborted. 77-F.Ragnow FUMBLES at DET 25, touched at DET 25, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at DET 23. 98-M.Haynes to DET 22 for 1 yard (73-J.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:02DET +11% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford Aborted. 77-F.Ragnow FUMBLES at DET 25, touched at DET 25, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at DET 23. 98-M.Haynes to DET 22 for 1 yard (73-J.Jackson).
Q1 · 5:23CAR +10% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass deep left to 12-D.Moore to DET 17 for 52 yards (26-D.Harmon).
Q2 · 13:47DET +9% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass short left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET -8. Touchback.
Q2 · 9:50CAR +7% win prob(9:50) 3-J.Charlton punts 53 yards to DET 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Panthers
Offensive plays	54	67
Total yards	186	378 (edge)
Yards per play	3.4	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.38	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	30%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.65	-0.08 (edge)
Third downs	3/14	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	3 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

P.J. WalkerQB

24/34, 258 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-0.5 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

18/33, 178 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.1 expected points added · -12.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Mike DavisRB

19 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Rodney SmithRB

8 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

7/11 for 127 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -1.6 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Curtis SamuelWR

8/10 for 70 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	10	37	4:32	Punt
2	DET	DET 20	7	14	2:04	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 5	11	95	6:03	Touchdown
4	DET	DET 25	4	5	1:25	Fumble
5	CAR	DET 22	5	18	2:13	Interception
6	DET	DET 20	6	32	2:23	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 10	4	3	1:38	Punt
8	DET	DET 34	6	19	2:43	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 10	6	14	2:43	Punt
10	DET	DET 35	6	20	2:23	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 12	8	37	1:48	Punt
12	DET	DET 30	1	0	0:05	End of half
13	DET	DET 25	5	5	0:53	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 34	7	66	3:09	Touchdown
15	DET	DET 25	8	23	3:26	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 25	9	38	5:33	Turnover on downs
17	DET	DET 25	9	37	2:51	Turnover on downs
18	CAR	CAR 41	8	57	4:58	Interception
19	DET	DET 20	8	2	2:53	Turnover on downs
20	CAR	DET 22	5	8	1:20	Turnover on downs
21	DET	DET 25	7	29	2:06	Turnover on downs
22	CAR	CAR 46	6	5	2:51	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	18/33	178	0	0	5	-11.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Adrian Peterson	7	18	2.6	-2.4
Kerryon Johnson	6	17	2.8	-1.8
Matthew Stafford	4	5	1.3	-5.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	4	7	68	22%	2.0
Marvin Jones	4	6	51	19%	0.2
Kerryon Johnson	2	5	21	16%	-0.5
Marvin Hall	3	3	16	9%	0.5
Jamal Agnew	3	6	10	19%	-3.5
Quintez Cephus	1	2	9	6%	0.1
Jesse James	1	2	3	6%	-0.8
Adrian Peterson	0	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jamie Collins	4	5	0.0	0	1
Jayron Kearse	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jarrad Davis	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jeff Okudah	4	2	0.0	0	0
Amani Oruwariye	3	2	0.0	1	1
Christian Jones	1	3	0.0	0	0
Danny Shelton	1	3	0.0	0	0
John Penisini	3	1	1.0	0	0
Desmond Trufant	2	2	0.0	1	2
Reggie Ragland	3	0	0.0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
P.J. Walker	24/34	258	1	2	1	-0.5
D.J. Moore	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	19	64	3.4	1	-1.6
Rodney Smith	8	29	3.6	0	-1.4
D.J. Moore	1	21	21.0	0	1.5
Curtis Samuel	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
P.J. Walker	5	-2	-0.4	0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	7	11	127	0	31%	-1.6
Curtis Samuel	8	10	70	1	29%	1.5
Robbie Chosen	7	9	46	0	26%	0.6
Mike Davis	2	2	15	0	6%	0.6
P.J. Walker	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Alex Armah	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Chris Manhertz	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tre Boston	6	2	0.0	0
Juston Burris	5	1	0.0	2
Jermaine Carter	1	4	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	3	2.0	1
Shaq Thompson	3	1	0.0	1
Jeremy Chinn	2	2	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	2	1	0.0	1
Zach Kerr	1	2	1.0	0
Marquis Haynes	1	1	0.0	0
Yetur Gross-Matos	0	2	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -3
Closing total: 47
DET moneyline: -169
CAR moneyline: +152

Lions closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 20 — under by 27.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: DET 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Matt Rhule