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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:10 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit0
BY 20final margin
PanthersCarolina20
Detroit Lions 0 at Carolina Panthers 20. Final.
Lions -3 upsetU 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 11
Carolina Panthers 20, Lions 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 1:02, 3rd and 5 — 10.5 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:02 · 3rd and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Panthers
(1:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford Aborted. 77-F.Ragnow FUMBLES at DET 25, touched at DET 25, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at DET 23. 98-M.Haynes to DET 22 for 1 yard (73-J.Jackson).
Lions closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 20–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:02, Panthers +10.5% win probability on one snap.
10.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.J. MoorePanthersQ1 5:23(5:23) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass deep left to 12-D.Moore to DET 17 for 52 yards (26-D.Harmon).
9.6pts
Amani OruwariyeLionsQ2 13:47(13:47) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass short left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET -8. Touchback.
8.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.65 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Lions156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(1:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford Aborted. 77-F.Ragnow FUMBLES at DET 25, touched at DET 25, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at DET 23. 98-M.Haynes to DET 22 for 1 yard (73-J.Jackson).
Swing +10.5 for PanthersExpected points +5.03 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 15 points higher than the market did.play 35
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:02DET +11% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford Aborted. 77-F.Ragnow FUMBLES at DET 25, touched at DET 25, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at DET 23. 98-M.Haynes to DET 22 for 1 yard (73-J.Jackson).
1st · 5:23CAR +10% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass deep left to 12-D.Moore to DET 17 for 52 yards (26-D.Harmon).
2nd · 13:47DET +9% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass short left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET -8. Touchback.
2nd · 9:50CAR +7% win prob(9:50) 3-J.Charlton punts 53 yards to DET 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
3rd · 11:06CAR +7% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass deep right to 10-C.Samuel for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Okwara].
1st · 12:19CAR +7% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass short left to 10-C.Samuel to DET 44 for 12 yards (23-D.Trufant).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Davis's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:24 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:24Mike Davis·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
3rd2:04Joey Slye·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+30–17
4th5:00Joey Slye·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+30–20
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryPanthers
Lions1–8Panthers
186Total yards378
3.4Yards per play5.6
30%Success rate39%
21%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays3
9First downs19
5Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Panthers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.38Lions: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.05Panthers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Lions: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.03Panthers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.65Lions: −0.65 expected points added per play
−0.08Panthers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 54 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Panthers’s 67 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Lions 0, Panthers 5.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's early-down pass rate, 48.1%, is past their previous low of 52.6% in week 4 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 10.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Panthers20.5%
leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 48.1%, 11.0 points below their season mean of 59.1% and 1.6 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Walker pass+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:23) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass deep left to 12-D.Moore to DET 17 for 52 yards (26-D.Harmon).
Q1 5:23 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at CAR 31 · gained 52 · +3.27 EP · +10.7% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 95 yards from the CAR 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
31%
Yards
559
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.4580%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0871%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.5347%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3014%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.320%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1917%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+0.3180%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Lions 38
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Lions0Panthers6
Lions0Panthers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 5 to the Lions 1
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 30
The period ended3 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Lions 13
2nd quarter44 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Lions 4
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Panthers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 13
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Panthers 47
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 24
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Panthers 44
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 12 to the Panthers 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 30
Lions0Panthers13
Lions0Panthers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Lions 17
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 49
Lions0Panthers17
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Lions 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Panthers 25
4th quarter46 plays
No good3 plays
Intercepted9 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Lions 7
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 32
Lions0Panthers20
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Lions 19
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Panthers 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Lions 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Lionscategory by categoryPanthers
Lions0
Panthers6
