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2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Green Bay Packers

31

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

34

IND -1.5 ✓O 52 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 9:20, GB +44% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4IND ↑GB ↓
OT · 9:20GB — IND GB ball · 2nd & 2GB 57%

(9:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 30 for no gain (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at GB 29.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 9:20GB +44% win prob(9:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 30 for no gain (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at GB 29.
  2. Q4 · 0:03GB +25% win prob2-M.Crosby kicks 54 yards from GB 35 to IND 11. 35-T.Smith to IND 21 for 10 yards.
  3. Q4 · 11:12GB +23% win prob8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to GB 3. 82-D.Shepherd to GB 25 for 22 yards (55-C.Marsh). FUMBLES (55-C.Marsh), RECOVERED by IND-31-T.Wilson at GB 28.
  4. Q1 · 13:48GB +17% win prob(13:48) 12-A.Rodgers FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 39, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 39.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersColts
Offensive plays5573
Total yards367421 (edge)
Yards per play6.7 (edge)5.8
Expected points added / play-0.040.01 (edge)
Success rate55% (edge)47%
Dropback rate71%51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.060.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.31-0.07 (edge)
Third downs4/9 (edge)7/16
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)67 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2023 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers43 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

27/38, 311 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

5.7 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

24/36, 288 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

9.0 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

22 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

10 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

7/9 for 106 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

3/3 for 66 yds, 1 TD

9% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 214411:17Fumble
2INDIND 393221:16Fumble
3GBGB 498514:06Touchdown
4INDIND 257752:36Touchdown
5GBGB 345-91:48Punt
6INDIND 406222:47Punt
7GBGB 102151:07Interception
8INDGB 35430:54Turnover on downs
9GBGB 407554:14Touchdown
10INDIND 29200:14Interception
11GBIND 295291:53Touchdown
12INDIND 2514755:56Touchdown
13GBGB 258241:36Touchdown
14INDIND 28200:16End of half
15INDIND 2515567:17Turnover on downs
16GBGB 14561:47Punt
17INDIND 4510553:57Touchdown
18GBGB 22591:51Punt
19INDIND 368503:56Turnover on downs
20GB—100:10Fumble
21INDGB 28482:06Turnover on downs
22GBGB 2310535:50Turnover on downs
23INDIND 349471:41Defensive touchdown
24GBGB 610861:22Turnover on downs
25IND—100:03Turnover on downs
26GBGB 22370:48Fumble
27INDGB 29482:02Turnover on downs

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers27/383113115.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones10414.111.1
Aaron Rodgers3134.30-5.1
Jamaal Williams5122.40-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams79106126%5.2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling3655017%-7.6
Robert Tonyan5544114%2.0
Aaron Jones4430011%1.6
Equanimeous St. Brown112303%1.8
Jace Sternberger332309%1.2
Allen Lazard2418011%0.6
Marcedes Lewis11803%1.2
Jamaal Williams12416%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Kirksey450.011
Kevin King520.000
Adrian Amos430.001
Raven Greene330.000
Jaire Alexander320.002
Chandon Sullivan310.001
Darnell Savage220.001
Za'Darius Smith220.001
Kenny Clark311.000
Rashan Gary210.001

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Philip Rivers24/362883119.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor22904.10-2.9
Jordan Wilkins4215.301.0
DeMichael Harris2199.500.6
Jacoby Brissett294.502.3
Nyheim Miller-Hines620.30-3.5
Philip Rivers1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman336619%5.5
Zach Pascal335409%4.2
T.Y. Hilton3636017%1.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines3431011%4.2
Trey Burton2525114%-4.3
Jonathan Taylor4424011%-1.0
Mo Alie-Cox231609%-4.4
Jordan Wilkins111503%0.2
Marcus Johnson131409%-0.2
Jack Doyle12616%1.2
DeMichael Harris11103%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kenny Moore1000.000
Shaquille Leonard320.001
Khari Willis310.000
Rock Ya-Sin310.011
Julian Blackmon400.000
George Odum120.000
Tyquan Lewis300.000
Justin Houston211.000
Grover Stewart110.000
Nyheim Miller-Hines100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -1.5
Closing total
52
GB moneyline
+109
IND moneyline
-120

Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 52; the game landed 65 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
GB 7 days · IND 10 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Frank Reich