For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay31
BY 3final margin
ColtsIndianapolis34
Green Bay Packers 31 at Indianapolis Colts 34. Final.
Colts -1.5 ✓O 52 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 11
Indianapolis Colts 34, Packers 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 9:20, 2nd and 2, on Marquez Valdes-Scantling — 44.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 9:20 · 2nd and 2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Colts
(9:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 30 for no gain (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at GB 29.
Dome
Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Indianapolis Colts 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 9:20, Colts +44.0% win probability on one snap.
44.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetColtsQ4 11:128-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to GB 3. 82-D.Shepherd to GB 25 for 22 yards (55-C.Marsh). FUMBLES (55-C.Marsh), RECOVERED by IND-31-T.Wilson at GB 28.
22.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetPackersQ4 0:032-M.Crosby kicks 54 yards from GB 35 to IND 11. 35-T.Smith to IND 21 for 10 yards.
24.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts won this one — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Colts won this one — 3 giveaways, against Packers at 4 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Colts at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Packers180 of 192 plays carry both curves
(9:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 30 for no gain (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at GB 29.
Swing +44.0 for ColtsExpected points +5.52 for ColtsModel and market agree here.play 185
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 9:20GB +44% win prob(9:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 30 for no gain (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at GB 29.
4th · 0:03GB +25% win prob2-M.Crosby kicks 54 yards from GB 35 to IND 11. 35-T.Smith to IND 21 for 10 yards.
4th · 11:12GB +23% win prob8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to GB 3. 82-D.Shepherd to GB 25 for 22 yards (55-C.Marsh). FUMBLES (55-C.Marsh), RECOVERED by IND-31-T.Wilson at GB 28.
1st · 13:48GB +17% win prob(13:48) 12-A.Rodgers FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 39, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 39.
4th · 0:57IND +16% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to IND 15 for 18 yards (23-K.Moore).
4th · 1:17IND +15% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to IND 47 for 47 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rodrigo Blankenship's 39-yard field goal with 7:15 left in overtime put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd7:47Rodrigo Blankenship·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+328–17
3rd2:03Jack Doyle·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · two-point good+828–25
4th11:17Rodrigo Blankenship·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+328–28
4th9:01Rodrigo Blankenship·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+328–31
4th0:07Mason Crosby·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+331–31
Overtime7:15Rodrigo Blankenship·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+331–34
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryColts
Packers4–4Colts
367Total yards421
6.7Yards per play5.8
55%Success rate47%
44%Third-down rate44%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays7
20First downs23
1Sacks taken1
4Turnovers3
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Packers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Packers: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.01Colts: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Packers: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.09Colts: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Packers: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.07Colts: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 55 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Colts’s 73 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Colts 5.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 6.9% in week 9.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 10.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
GB's early-down pass rate, 68.9%, is past their previous high of 61.2% in week 8 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
GB's pass rate over expected, +10.8 pts, is past their previous high of +8.0 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
IND's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.4 pts in week 10 against −10.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Colts2.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 68.9%, 16.5 points above their season mean of 52.4% and 2.1 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
A.Rodgers pass−44% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 30 for no gain (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at GB 29.
OT 9:20 · Packers · 2nd & 2 at GB 30 · lost 1 · -5.52 EP · −44.0% win probability
179 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 86 yards from the GB 6 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
789
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.0661%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1268%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5273%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.340%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.1143%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Colts 38
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Colts 39 to the Colts 43
Packers6Colts0
Packers7Colts0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Colts 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Packers7Colts6
Packers7Colts7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Packers 45
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 35
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Packers 47
Intercepted3 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 25
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
No good3 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Packers 32
Packers13Colts7
Packers14Colts7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Colts 2
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Packers20Colts7
Packers21Colts7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Colts 5
Packers21Colts13
Packers21Colts14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Packers 17
Packers27Colts14
Packers28Colts14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Colts 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Packers28Colts17
Field goal15 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Packers 10
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Packers 20
Packers28Colts23
Packers28Colts25
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Packers 6
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Packers 31
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Packers28Colts28
Field goal7 plays, from midfield to the Packers 12
Fumble lost1 play
Packers28Colts31
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Packers 20
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Colts 34
Punt16 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Packers 23
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Packers31Colts31
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Colts 8
The period ended2 plays
Overtime10 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Packers 30
Packers31Colts34
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Packers 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Packerscategory by categoryColts
Packers6
Colts0
