2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

KC -7.5 no coverO 56.5 ✓DomeChiefs closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 35–31. Biggest swing: Q4 0:34, LV +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:34KC — LV KC ball · 2nd & 7KC 59%

(:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:34LV +28% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:16LV +19% win prob(2:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 15-N.Agholor (21-B.Breeland). PENALTY on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at KC 23 - No Play.
Q4 · 8:36LV +17% win prob(8:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 11-D.Robinson to LV 39 for 9 yards (25-E.Harris) [98-M.Crosby].
Q2 · 0:30KC +16% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 11-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Mullen at LV 3. 27-T.Mullen to LV 3 for no gain (11-D.Robinson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Raiders
Offensive plays	71	56
Total yards	462 (edge)	365
Yards per play	6.5	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.35 (edge)	0.24
Success rate	62% (edge)	55%
Dropback rate	68%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.47	0.48 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	5/9	6/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	32 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	0	0
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

34/45, 348 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

20.9 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

23/31, 275 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

16.3 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

14 att, 69 yds, 2 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

17 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/10 for 127 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

11/14 for 102 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	8	75	3:35	Touchdown
2	KC	KC 15	16	85	7:24	Touchdown
3	LV	LV 40	9	60	4:01	Touchdown
4	KC	KC 27	9	55	3:44	Touchdown
5	LV	LV 25	13	74	6:40	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 25	5	16	2:29	Punt
7	LV	LV 32	6	24	0:43	Punt
8	KC	KC 13	9	63	0:58	Interception
9	LV	LV 3	1	0	0:26	End of half
10	KC	KC 7	18	93	8:37	Touchdown
11	LV	LV 25	13	75	6:29	Touchdown
12	KC	KC 25	5	-1	1:40	Punt
13	LV	LV 32	4	6	1:41	Punt
14	KC	KC 9	13	76	5:39	Touchdown
15	LV	LV 25	14	51	4:11	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 25	9	75	1:15	Touchdown
17	LV	LV 25	2	0	0:09	Interception
18	KC	LV 44	2	0	0:19	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 93 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	34/45	348	2	1	0	20.9
Travis Kelce	1/1	4	0	0	0	0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	14	69	4.9	2	4.0
Le'Veon Bell	7	25	3.6	1	-0.4
Patrick Mahomes	4	16	4.0	0	-0.6
Tyreek Hill	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	8	10	127	1	23%	9.6
Tyreek Hill	11	14	102	1	32%	10.1
Demarcus Robinson	6	8	44	0	18%	-0.1
Darrel Williams	3	3	22	0	7%	0.5
Byron Pringle	3	4	17	0	9%	0.6
Mecole Hardman	1	1	16	0	2%	1.4
Le'Veon Bell	1	1	11	0	2%	0.7
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	2	8	0	5%	-0.1
Nick Keizer	1	1	5	0	2%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Damien Wilson	3	3	0	0
Bashaud Breeland	3	3	0	0
Anthony Hitchens	4	2	0	0
Willie Gay	4	1	0	0
Chris Jones	3	1	0	0
Charvarius Ward	3	1	0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	3	1	0	0
Daniel Sorensen	3	1	1	1
Tanoh Kpassagnon	2	1	0	0
Michael Danna	2	1	0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	23/31	275	3	1	0	16.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	17	55	3.2	1	-2.7
Devontae Booker	5	16	3.2	0	-0.3
Henry Ruggs	1	12	12.0	0	0.6
Derek Carr	3	6	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nelson Agholor	6	9	88	1	31%	4.0
Darren Waller	7	7	88	1	24%	10.2
Hunter Renfrow	2	2	37	0	7%	4.2
Zay Jones	1	1	18	0	3%	1.0
Derek Carrier	1	1	14	0	3%	0.8
Alec Ingold	1	3	11	0	10%	-0.4
Josh Jacobs	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Henry Ruggs	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.0
Devontae Booker	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2
Bryan Edwards	1	2	1	0	7%	-3.7
Jason Witten	1	1	1	1	3%	1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Johnathan Abram	7	3	0	0
Nicholas Morrow	6	2	0	1
Nick Kwiatkoski	5	3	0	0
Nevin Lawson	5	2	0	0
Trayvon Mullen	5	1	1	2
Damon Arnette	4	0	0	1
Carl Nassib	3	0	0	0
Erik Harris	2	1	0	0
Jeff Heath	2	1	0	0
Derek Carrier	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7.5
Closing total: 56.5
KC moneyline: -351
LV moneyline: +296

Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 56.5; the game landed 66 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: KC 14 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Jon Gruden

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.