For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chiefs169 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −28.2 for RaidersExpected points −3.46 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 7 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:34LV +28% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:16LV +19% win prob(2:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 15-N.Agholor (21-B.Breeland). PENALTY on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at KC 23 - No Play.
4th · 8:36LV +17% win prob(8:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 11-D.Robinson to LV 39 for 9 yards (25-E.Harris) [98-M.Crosby].
2nd · 0:30KC +16% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 11-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Mullen at LV 3. 27-T.Mullen to LV 3 for no gain (11-D.Robinson).
4th · 1:14LV +12% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman to LV 40 for 16 yards (26-N.Lawson).
4th · 1:53LV +12% win prob(1:53) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 22-yard touchdown catch with 0:34 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:34Travis Kelce·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+735–31
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryRaiders
Chiefs3–3Raiders
462Total yards365
6.5Yards per play6.5
62%Success rate55%
56%Third-down rate67%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays7
32First downs22
0Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Chiefs, in first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.35Chiefs: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.24Raiders: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.47Chiefs: +0.47 expected points added per play
+0.48Raiders: +0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Chiefs: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.10Raiders: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 71 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Raiders’s 56 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 6, Raiders 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's sack or hit rate, 3.0%, is past their previous low of 12.5% in week 5 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 29 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−2.30× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Raiders10.4%
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.0%, 12.6 points below their season mean of 15.6% and 2.3 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
73Nick AllegrettiG · Every snap100%78 snaps
77Andrew WylieT · Every snap100%78 snaps
75Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%78 snaps
62Austin ReiterC · Every snap100%78 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%78 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time92%72 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time88%69 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Full-time81%63 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Heavy rotation51%40 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Heavy rotation51%40 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:34 · Chiefs · 2nd & 7 at LV 22 · gained 22 · +3.46 EP · +34.5% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 93 yards from the KC 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
53%
Yards
824
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.4677%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.2671%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.2150%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12+0.3158%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12+0.0842%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.2617%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2060%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Chiefs0Raiders6
Chiefs0Raiders7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 2
Chiefs6Raiders7
Chiefs7Raiders7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Raiders 3
Chiefs7Raiders13
Chiefs7Raiders14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Chiefs 17
2nd quarter53 plays
Chiefs13Raiders14
Chiefs14Raiders14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Raiders 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Chiefs14Raiders17
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 1
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 30
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Chiefs 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Chiefs 13 to the Raiders 14
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter30 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chiefs20Raiders17
Chiefs21Raiders17
Touchdown18 plays, from the Chiefs 7 to the Raiders 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 3
4th quarter61 plays
Chiefs21Raiders23
Chiefs21Raiders24
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Raiders 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chiefs27Raiders24
Chiefs28Raiders24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Raiders 6
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldSix linemen, three linebackers and two backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.9 seconds
Chiefs28Raiders30
Chiefs28Raiders31
Touchdown18 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.6 seconds
Chiefs34Raiders31
Chiefs35Raiders31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Raiders 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
