2020 Week 11 · Mon, Nov 23, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -4 upsetO 47.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Rams 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:57, LA +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:57LA — TB TB ball · 2nd & 10LA 62%

(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Fuller at LA 31. 32-J.Fuller to LA 37 for 6 yards (14-C.Godwin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:57LA +24% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Fuller at LA 31. 32-J.Fuller to LA 37 for 6 yards (14-C.Godwin).
Q3 · 13:42LA +19% win prob(13:42) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 27-D.Henderson INTERCEPTED by 90-J.Pierre-Paul at LA 37. 90-J.Pierre-Paul to LA 22 for 15 yards (16-J.Goff).
Q3 · 7:55LA +18% win prob(7:55) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Fuller at LA 26. 32-J.Fuller pushed ob at TB 37 for 37 yards (78-T.Wirfs).
Q4 · 7:27LA +16% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Whitehead at LA 46. 33-J.Whitehead pushed ob at LA 44 for 2 yards (10-C.Kupp).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	70	67
Total yards	413 (edge)	251
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	0.01 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	46% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	71%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	-0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	-0.22 (edge)
Third downs	8/15 (edge)	7/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	0
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	2	2

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

39/51, 376 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

10.5 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

26/48, 216 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-9.6 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

10 att, 24 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

7 att, 17 yds, 1 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

11/13 for 145 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

12/15 for 130 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	8	16	3:13	Punt
2	LA	LA 20	14	78	7:52	Touchdown
3	TB	TB 25	12	55	4:45	Touchdown
4	LA	LA 25	5	8	2:10	Punt
5	TB	TB 32	11	43	3:25	Touchdown
6	LA	LA 25	10	70	4:04	Touchdown
7	TB	TB 25	10	24	3:31	Punt
8	LA	LA 19	8	61	1:00	Turnover on downs
9	LA	LA 25	4	11	1:28	Interception
10	TB	LA 22	4	2	0:51	Turnover on downs
11	LA	LA 25	10	49	4:16	Turnover on downs
12	TB	TB 34	2	10	0:43	Interception
13	LA	TB 37	6	42	2:03	Touchdown
14	TB	TB 25	5	1	0:58	Punt
15	LA	LA 20	7	24	3:17	Punt
16	TB	TB 13	4	-5	1:24	Punt
17	LA	LA 42	4	4	1:25	Punt
18	TB	TB 20	6	22	1:44	Punt
19	LA	LA 12	4	8	1:33	Punt
20	TB	TB 37	6	20	2:02	Turnover on downs
21	LA	LA 43	2	0	0:59	Interception
22	TB	LA 44	8	44	3:24	Touchdown
23	LA	LA 25	9	53	1:17	Turnover on downs
24	TB	TB 19	5	19	0:47	Interception
25	LA	LA 37	4	5	1:49	Punt

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 78 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	39/51	376	3	2	0	10.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Malcolm Brown	3	20	6.7	-0.3
Cam Akers	5	15	3.0	-2.4
Darrell Henderson	8	5	0.6	-3.0
Tyler Higbee	1	1	1.0	-0.7
Jared Goff	1	0	0.0	-0.7
Robert Woods	2	-4	-2.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	11	13	145	0	27%	10.5
Robert Woods	12	15	130	1	31%	1.6
Josh Reynolds	3	6	32	0	12%	0.3
Gerald Everett	4	5	27	0	10%	1.3
Tyler Higbee	4	4	19	0	8%	0.3
Malcolm Brown	1	1	8	0	2%	0.1
Van Jefferson	1	1	7	1	2%	1.8
Cam Akers	1	1	4	1	2%	1.5
Darrell Henderson	2	3	4	0	6%	-7.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
John Johnson	3	3	0.0	1
Micah Kiser	2	4	0.0	0
Michael Brockers	2	4	0.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	4	2	0.0	0
Troy Hill	4	1	0.0	0
Darious Williams	4	0	0.0	2
Kenny Young	1	3	0.0	0
Sebastian Joseph	1	2	0.0	0
Nick Scott	2	1	0.0	0
Samson Ebukam	2	0	1.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	26/48	216	2	2	1	-9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ronald Jones	10	24	2.4	0	-3.8
Leonard Fournette	7	17	2.4	1	0.1
Antonio Brown	1	1	1.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	8	13	57	0	28%	-0.0
Chris Godwin	7	10	53	1	21%	-6.1
Mike Evans	5	9	49	1	19%	0.3
Rob Gronkowski	2	6	25	0	13%	-0.8
Cameron Brate	3	4	23	0	9%	1.4
Leonard Fournette	1	4	9	0	9%	-1.9
Ronald Jones	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Sean Murphy-Bunting	5	5	0	0
Antoine Winfield	4	5	0	0
Devin White	4	4	0	0
Lavonte David	7	1	0	1
Jordan Whitehead	4	3	1	1
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	2	1	2
Carlton Davis	3	1	0	0
Jamel Dean	3	1	0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	0	0	0
William Gholston	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -4
Closing total: 47.5
LA moneyline: +173
TB moneyline: -195

Buccaneers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 51 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: LA 8 days · TB 8 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Bruce Arians