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2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
DolphinsMiami13
BY 7final margin
BroncosDenver20
Miami Dolphins 13 at Denver Broncos 20. Final.
Dolphins -4 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 11
Denver Broncos 20, Dolphins 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:10, 3rd and 8, on Justin Simmons — 20.2 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:10 · 3rd and 8
Justin Simmons
Broncos
(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -4. Touchback.
U 46 ✓
Dolphins closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 1:10, Broncos +20.2% win probability on one snap.
20.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Xavien HowardDolphinsQ1 13:15(13:15) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard [43-A.Van Ginkel] at DEN 32. 25-X.Howard to DEN 22 for 10 yards (81-T.Patrick).
10.7pts
Melvin GordonDolphinsQ3 9:30(9:30) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to MIA 14 for no gain (44-E.Roberts; 98-R.Davis).
11.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Dolphins160 of 170 plays carry both curves
(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -4. Touchback.
Swing +20.2 for BroncosExpected points +3.96 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 4 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:10MIA +20% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -4. Touchback.
3rd · 9:30MIA +12% win prob(9:30) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to MIA 14 for no gain (44-E.Roberts; 98-R.Davis).
1st · 13:15MIA +11% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard [43-A.Van Ginkel] at DEN 32. 25-X.Howard to DEN 22 for 10 yards (81-T.Patrick).
2nd · 1:43DEN +9% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at MIA 37 for 22 yards.
4th · 2:50DEN +9% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 11-D.Parker to DEN 29 for 21 yards (22-K.Jackson).
3rd · 2:38DEN +9% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon McManus's 47-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:14DeVante Parker·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+77–0
4th7:57Jason Sanders·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+313–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryBroncos
Dolphins2–7Broncos
223Total yards459
3.7Yards per play7.3
34%Success rate40%
44%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays10
14First downs17
6Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Broncos ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Dolphins: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.04Broncos: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Dolphins: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.14Broncos: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Dolphins: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.22Broncos: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 61 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Broncos’s 63 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Broncos 5.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 10 against 17.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Broncos17.8%
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was MIA's early-down pass rate, 66.7% against a season mean of 57.7% — and MIA swings 12.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Fitzpatrick pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -4. Touchback.
Q4 1:10 · Dolphins · 3rd & 8 at DEN 15 · gained nothing · -3.96 EP · −16.7% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 84 yards from the MIA 1 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
37%
Yards
682
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR48-0.1975%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30-0.3337%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.3962%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.1333%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.5550%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR5+0.3180%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
Dolphins6Broncos0
Dolphins7Broncos0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 3
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 26
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 30
Dolphins7Broncos6
Dolphins7Broncos7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Dolphins 1
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 30
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 37
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 20
Dolphins7Broncos10
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Dolphins 9
Dolphins10Broncos10
Field goal15 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Broncos 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Dolphins10Broncos13
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Dolphins 29
3rd quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Dolphins 14
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 17
Dolphins10Broncos19
Dolphins10Broncos20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Dolphins 20
The period ended9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Broncos 40
4th quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from midfield to the Broncos 46
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 23
Dolphins13Broncos20
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Broncos 35
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Dolphins 9
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Dolphins 1 to the Broncos 15
The period ended9 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -4
Closing total
46
Dolphins moneyline
-196
Broncos moneyline
+174
Dolphins closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 33 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 44°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north; mainly clear.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Brian Flores vs Vic Fangio
3rd · 3:18
DEN +9% win prob
(3:18) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Hamler (23-N.Igbinoghene) [58-J.Strowbridge]. PENALTY on MIA-58-J.Strowbridge, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 42 - No Play. Penalty on MIA-23-N.Igbinoghene, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 11:49DEN +8% win prob(11:49) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick pushed ob at MIA 18 for 41 yards (25-X.Howard).
