2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High

Miami Dolphins

Denver BroncosWinner

MIA -4 upsetU 46 ✓Dolphins closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 1:10, MIA +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:10MIA — DEN MIA ball · 3rd & 8DEN 78%

(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -4. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:10MIA +20% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -4. Touchback.
Q3 · 9:30MIA +12% win prob(9:30) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to MIA 14 for no gain (44-E.Roberts; 98-R.Davis).
Q1 · 13:15MIA +11% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard [43-A.Van Ginkel] at DEN 32. 25-X.Howard to DEN 22 for 10 yards (81-T.Patrick).
Q2 · 1:43DEN +9% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at MIA 37 for 22 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Broncos
Offensive plays	61	63
Total yards	223	459 (edge)
Yards per play	3.7	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.16	-0.04 (edge)
Success rate	34%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

18/30, 270 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

1.5 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

12/18, 117 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

1.4 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

15 att, 84 yds, 2 TD

-7.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

16 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Tim PatrickWR

5/8 for 119 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -1.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

6/9 for 61 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	5	4	1:08	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 20	3	0	0:49	Interception
3	MIA	DEN 22	6	17	2:55	Touchdown
4	DEN	DEN 25	5	1	1:02	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 26	4	4	1:32	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 27	12	83	6:00	Touchdown
7	MIA	MIA 25	5	5	1:32	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 28	4	9	1:44	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 17	4	0	1:29	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 41	5	48	1:54	Turnover on downs
11	MIA	MIA 25	15	52	7:21	Turnover on downs
12	DEN	DEN 11	10	60	2:34	Turnover on downs
13	DEN	DEN 25	11	61	5:40	Turnover on downs
14	MIA	MIA 14	4	3	2:03	Punt
15	DEN	DEN 19	10	66	4:46	Touchdown
16	MIA	MIA 25	10	15	4:38	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 18	4	5	2:09	Punt
18	MIA	MIA 21	8	44	2:53	Turnover on downs
19	DEN	DEN 25	6	64	2:38	Defensive touchdown
20	MIA	MIA 1	13	79	4:10	Interception
21	DEN	DEN 20	4	62	1:03	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 83 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	12/18	117	0	1	0	1.4
Tua Tagovailoa	11/20	83	1	0	6	-9.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Salvon Ahmed	12	43	3.6	-0.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick	2	6	3.0	-0.1
Matt Breida	2	4	2.0	-0.7
Jakeem Grant	1	3	3.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	6	9	61	1	24%	2.2
Mike Gesicki	4	5	43	0	14%	2.9
Salvon Ahmed	5	6	31	0	16%	-1.6
Malcolm Perry	3	5	23	0	14%	0.6
Antonio Callaway	1	1	13	0	3%	2.1
Jakeem Grant	2	6	12	0	16%	-3.3
Mack Hollins	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.6
Patrick Laird	1	2	8	0	5%	-1.6
Durham Smythe	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Eric Rowe	7	3	0	0
Xavien Howard	6	1	1	2
Bobby McCain	3	3	0	0
Elandon Roberts	3	2	0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	2	0	0
Nik Needham	4	0	0	2
Byron Jones	2	1	0	0
Clayton Fejedelem	2	1	0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	2	1	0	0
Zach Sieler	2	0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	18/30	270	0	1	0	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	15	84	5.6	2	-7.4
Phillip Lindsay	16	82	5.1	0	-0.4
Drew Lock	2	23	11.5	0	3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tim Patrick	5	8	119	27%	-1.9
Noah Fant	4	5	55	17%	1.7
Jerry Jeudy	3	8	37	27%	-2.4
K.J. Hamler	4	6	35	20%	2.4
Nick Vannett	2	2	24	7%	2.4
Troy Fumagalli	0	1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Justin Simmons	6	1	0.0	1	2
Alexander Johnson	4	2	0.0	0	0
Malik Reed	4	2	1.5	0	0
Bradley Chubb	4	1	1.0	0	0
Bryce Callahan	5	0	0.0	0	0
DeShawn Williams	3	0	2.0	0	0
Josey Jewell	2	1	0.0	0	0
Essang Bassey	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kareem Jackson	2	1	0.0	0	1
Sylvester Williams	0	3	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -4
Closing total: 46
MIA moneyline: -196
DEN moneyline: +174

Dolphins closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 33 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: MIA 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Vic Fangio