For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Patriots160 of 170 plays carry both curves
(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle [20-Ju.Reid].
Swing +16.6 for TexansExpected points +3.44 for TexansThe model had Texans 3 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
3rd · 8:21HOU +13% win prob(8:21) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 10-D.Byrd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:52HOU +13% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 10-D.Byrd to HOU 26 for 16 yards (21-B.Roby; 23-E.Murray).
2nd · 5:28HOU +11% win prob(5:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 88-J.Akins to NE 25 for 25 yards (35-K.Dugger).
2nd · 3:58HOU +11% win prob(3:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-27-J.Jackson, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 15:00NE +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at NE 39 for -7 yards (52-J.Greenard).
4th · 1:20
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Deshaun Watson's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 3:58 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
3rd2:07Ka'imi Fairbairn·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+317–24
4th7:42Nick Folk·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+320–24
4th4:14Ka'imi Fairbairn·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+320–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryTexans
Patriots4–4Texans
436Total yards399
6.7Yards per play7.1
48%Success rate45%
54%Third-down rate45%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays8
22First downs19
2Sacks taken0
0Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Texans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Patriots: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.28Texans: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Patriots: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.52Texans: +0.52 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Patriots: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.51Texans: −0.51 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 65 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Texans’s 56 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Texans 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
HOU's pass rate over expected, +16.8 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +11.5 pts in week 5.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 10.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 61.5% in week 10 against 73.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 25.0% in week 10 against 60.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Texans19.0%
inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 16.8 pts, 11.2 points above their season mean of 5.5 pts and 1.8 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton pass−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle [20-Ju.Reid].
Q4 1:18 · Patriots · 4th & 4 at HOU 24 · gained nothing · -3.44 EP · −13.9% win probability
158 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 84 yards from the NE 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
42%
Yards
834
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0570%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.3875%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.0339%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2856%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7+1.33100%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 47
Patriots6Texans0
Patriots7Texans0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Texans 9
Patriots7Texans6
Patriots7Texans7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Patriots 3
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 36
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 37
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Texans 39
Patriots10Texans7
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Texans 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, one linebacker and eight backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Patriots10Texans13
Patriots10Texans14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Patriots 4
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 28
Patriots10Texans20
Patriots10Texans21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Patriots 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Patriots16Texans21
Patriots17Texans21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Texans 42
Patriots17Texans24
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Patriots 18
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 30
4th quarter46 plays
Patriots20Texans24
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Texans 15
Patriots20Texans27
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Patriots 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.7 seconds
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Texans 24
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Patriots 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
