2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · NRG Stadium

New England Patriots

Houston TexansWinner

NE -2.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓DomePatriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 1:18, NE +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:18NE — HOU NE ball · 4th & 4HOU 82%

(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle [20-Ju.Reid].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:18NE +17% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle [20-Ju.Reid].
Q3 · 8:21HOU +13% win prob(8:21) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 10-D.Byrd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:52HOU +13% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 10-D.Byrd to HOU 26 for 16 yards (21-B.Roby; 23-E.Murray).
Q2 · 5:28HOU +11% win prob(5:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 88-J.Akins to NE 25 for 25 yards (35-K.Dugger).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Texans
Offensive plays	65	56
Total yards	436 (edge)	399
Yards per play	6.7	7.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16	0.28 (edge)
Success rate	48% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	65%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26	0.52 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.51
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

26/40, 365 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.0 expected points added · -3.5% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

28/37, 344 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

20.1 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

11 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

6 att, 36 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Damiere ByrdWR

6/7 for 132 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 14.6 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

4/5 for 85 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	7	22	2:36	Punt
2	NE	NE 16	11	84	5:32	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 27	8	73	3:16	Touchdown
4	NE	NE 25	7	9	2:16	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 20	6	19	2:43	Punt
6	NE	NE 29	10	55	5:05	Turnover on downs
7	HOU	HOU 25	10	70	4:38	Touchdown
8	NE	NE 25	5	3	1:34	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 20	10	90	2:10	Touchdown
10	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:10	End of half
11	NE	NE 25	5	18	2:24	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 28	4	6	1:39	Punt
13	NE	NE 18	8	82	2:43	Touchdown
14	HOU	HOU 25	12	67	6:10	Turnover on downs
15	NE	NE 17	17	75	9:25	Turnover on downs
16	HOU	HOU 25	9	47	3:28	Turnover on downs
17	NE	NE 25	12	51	3:00	Turnover on downs
18	HOU	HOU 25	4	5	1:02	Punt
19	NE	NE 29	2	59	0:09	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 90 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	26/40	365	1	0	2	11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	11	43	3.9	1	1.1
James White	5	19	3.8	0	-1.4
Damiere Byrd	1	11	11.0	0	1.2
Rex Burkhead	4	7	1.8	0	-2.3
Cam Newton	3	6	2.0	0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Damiere Byrd	6	7	132	1	18%	14.6
James White	6	9	64	0	24%	1.4
Ryan Izzo	2	3	59	0	8%	-0.6
N'Keal Harry	5	8	41	0	21%	0.4
Jakobi Meyers	3	3	38	0	8%	3.0
Donte Moncrief	1	2	15	0	5%	1.1
Damien Harris	1	2	11	0	5%	0.1
Rex Burkhead	2	3	5	0	8%	-1.4
Jordan Thomas	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Adrian Phillips	4	2	1
Jonathan Jones	5	1	0
Kyle Dugger	4	2	0
Lawrence Guy	4	2	0
Stephon Gilmore	4	2	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	1	4	0
Byron Cowart	2	2	0
Joejuan Williams	1	1	0
Jason McCourty	1	1	0
Devin McCourty	2	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	28/37	344	2	0	0	20.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Deshaun Watson	6	36	6.0	1	2.4
Duke Johnson	10	15	1.5	0	-5.2
C.J. Prosise	3	4	1.3	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	4	5	85	0	14%	6.5
Jordan Akins	5	6	83	0	16%	6.1
Will Fuller	6	8	80	0	22%	5.4
Darren Fells	2	2	29	0	5%	3.1
Pharaoh Brown	2	3	22	0	8%	0.6
Duke Johnson	3	5	20	0	14%	-1.3
Keke Coutee	2	4	10	1	11%	-0.7
C.J. Prosise	2	2	8	0	5%	-0.3
Randall Cobb	2	2	7	1	5%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zach Cunningham	6	2	0.0	0
Justin Reid	6	2	1.0	0
Tyrell Adams	4	2	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	4	1	0.0	0
A.J. Moore	3	1	0.0	0
Bradley Roby	3	1	0.0	1
Eric Murray	3	1	0.0	0
P.J. Hall	1	1	0.0	0
J.J. Watt	2	0	0.0	3
Vernon Hargreaves	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -2.5
Closing total: 49.5
NE moneyline: -147
HOU moneyline: +132

Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 47 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: NE 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Romeo Crennel