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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:46 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
New York Jets 28 at Los Angeles Chargers 34. Final.
Chargers -10 no coverO 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 11
Los Angeles Chargers 34, Jets 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:24, 1st and 10, on Tevaughn Campbell — 15.2 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Chargers closed -10, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Chargers 34–28. Biggest swing: Q1 3:24, Chargers +15.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:24 · 1st and 10
Tevaughn Campbell
Chargers
(3:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Campbell at NYJ 6. 37-T.Campbell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin HerbertJetsQ1 11:59(11:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at NYJ 46 for -7 yards (sack split by 97-N.Shepherd and 48-J.Jenkins).
6.0pts
Keenan AllenJetsQ1 3:33(3:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to NYJ 1 for 14 yards (20-M.Maye; 32-A.Davis). FUMBLES (20-M.Maye), touched at NYJ 1, RECOVERED by NYJ-32-A.Davis at NYJ 4. 32-A.Davis to NYJ 4 for no gain (83-T.Johnson).
6.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.40 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chargers won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Jets at 5 of 11 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chargers at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Jets178 of 192 plays carry both curves
(3:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Campbell at NYJ 6. 37-T.Campbell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.2 for ChargersExpected points +6.83 for ChargersThe model had Jets 31 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:24NYJ +15% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Campbell at NYJ 6. 37-T.Campbell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:33NYJ +7% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to NYJ 1 for 14 yards (20-M.Maye; 32-A.Davis). FUMBLES (20-M.Maye), touched at NYJ 1, RECOVERED by NYJ-32-A.Davis at NYJ 4. 32-A.Davis to NYJ 4 for no gain (83-T.Johnson).
1st · 11:59NYJ +6% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at NYJ 46 for -7 yards (sack split by 97-N.Shepherd and 48-J.Jenkins).
1st · 5:32NYJ +5% win prob(5:32) 35-T.Pope up the middle to NYJ 20 for no gain (44-H.Langi).
1st · 12:59LAC +5% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 86-H.Henry to NYJ 40 for 18 yards (46-N.Hewitt) [93-T.Basham].
2nd · 14:26LAC +5% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-M.Williams for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tevaughn Campbell's 6-yard touchdown with 3:24 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:09La'Mical Perine·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+66–0
3rd0:25Frank Gore·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right upright+619–31
4th6:45Michael Badgley·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+319–34
4th4:05Christopher Herndon·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+726–34
4th0:08Frankie Luvu·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+228–34
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryChargers
Jets4–5Chargers
292Total yards376
5.3Yards per play4.8
38%Success rate38%
45%Third-down rate60%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
15First downs24
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Jets: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.04Chargers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Jets: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.24Chargers: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Jets: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.40Chargers: −0.40 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 55 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Chargers’s 78 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Jets 5, Chargers 6.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
NYJ's pass rate over expected, −14.1 pts, is past their previous low of −12.0 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
LAC's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, is past their previous high of 18.4% in week 7 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 10.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
LAC's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.4 pts in week 10 against +11.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
78 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Chargers25.0%
leaned — got home · +10.7 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.1 pts, 10.0 points below their season mean of -4.2 pts and 1.8 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
71Alex LewisT · Every snap100%60 snaps
62Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%60 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%60 snaps
5Joe FlaccoQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
19Breshad PerrimanWR · Full-time98%59 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Full-time93%56 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Full-time90%54 snaps
11Denzel MimsWR · Full-time90%54 snaps
89Christopher HerndonTE · Heavy rotation60%36 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass−22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Campbell at NYJ 6. 37-T.Campbell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 3:24 · Jets · 1st & 10 at NYJ 4 · gained nothing · -6.83 EP · −22.0% win probability
176 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 75 yards from the LAC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
37%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.1577%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0156%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0417%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.740%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Punt10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Jets 39
Jets6Chargers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 5
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Jets 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Jets6Chargers6
Touchdown1 play
Jets6Chargers7
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Jets 45
2nd quarter57 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Jets6Chargers13
Jets6Chargers14
Touchdown3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Jets 22
Jets6Chargers20
Jets6Chargers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Jets 2
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chargers 39
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 46
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 48
Jets6Chargers24
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Jets 17
3rd quarter44 plays
Jets12Chargers24
Jets13Chargers24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Chargers 49
Jets13Chargers30
Jets13Chargers31
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Jets 10
Jets19Chargers31
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chargers 1
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Jets19Chargers34
Field goal16 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Jets 5
Jets25Chargers34
Jets26Chargers34
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chargers 6
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chargers 25
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Chargers 32
Jets28Chargers34
Punt6 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -10
Closing total
47
Jets moneyline
+351
Chargers moneyline
-425
Chargers closed -10, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47; the game landed 62 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Jets 13 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Anthony Lynn
1st · 5:59LAC +5% win prob(5:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 35-T.Pope pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 8 yards (37-B.Hall).
1st · 7:54LAC +5% win prob(7:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen. PENALTY on NYJ-37-B.Hall, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at LAC 30 - No Play.
Jetscategory by categoryChargers
Jets6
Chargers0
