2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · SoFi Stadium

New York Jets

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -10 no coverO 47 ✓DomeChargers closed -10, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Chargers 34–28. Biggest swing: Q1 3:24, NYJ +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:24NYJ — LAC NYJ ball · 1st & 10LAC 61%

(3:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Campbell at NYJ 6. 37-T.Campbell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:24NYJ +15% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Campbell at NYJ 6. 37-T.Campbell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:33NYJ +7% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to NYJ 1 for 14 yards (20-M.Maye; 32-A.Davis). FUMBLES (20-M.Maye), touched at NYJ 1, RECOVERED by NYJ-32-A.Davis at NYJ 4. 32-A.Davis to NYJ 4 for no gain (83-T.Johnson).
Q1 · 11:59NYJ +6% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at NYJ 46 for -7 yards (sack split by 97-N.Shepherd and 48-J.Jenkins).
Q1 · 5:32NYJ +5% win prob(5:32) 35-T.Pope up the middle to NYJ 20 for no gain (44-H.Langi).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Chargers
Offensive plays	55	78
Total yards	292	376 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	-0.04	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	38%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.40
Third downs	5/11	9/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	15	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

37/49, 366 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.7 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Joe FlaccoQB

15/30, 205 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.6 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Frank GoreRB

15 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Kalen BallageRB

16 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

16/19 for 145 yds, 1 TD

40% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

4/7 for 72 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	10	29	3:56	Punt
2	NYJ	LAC 29	5	29	1:59	Touchdown
3	LAC	LAC 25	12	66	5:41	Fumble
4	NYJ	NYJ 4	1	0	0:04	Defensive touchdown
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	0	2:15	Punt
6	LAC	LAC 43	6	57	1:48	Touchdown
7	NYJ	NYJ 14	5	3	1:17	Fumble
8	LAC	LAC 28	8	68	2:59	Touchdown
9	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	31	2:46	Punt
10	LAC	LAC 14	8	39	3:17	Punt
11	NYJ	NYJ 20	8	19	2:42	Punt
12	LAC	LAC 14	7	18	1:16	Turnover on downs
13	NYJ	NYJ 26	9	79	3:33	Touchdown
14	LAC	LAC 25	14	75	5:54	Touchdown
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	12	60	5:11	Touchdown
16	LAC	LAC 25	17	56	8:40	Turnover on downs
17	NYJ	NYJ 25	11	64	2:42	Touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 24	5	0	1:12	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 46	6	7	1:02	Turnover on downs
20	LAC	LAC 32	4	-32	1:45	Turnover on downs
21	NYJ	—	1	0	0:01	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 79 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	15/30	205	2	1	1	-1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Frank Gore	15	61	4.1	1	-0.3
La'Mical Perine	8	33	4.1	1	0.0
Joe Flacco	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Denzel Mims	3	7	71	0	25%	4.1
Breshad Perriman	2	4	54	1	14%	3.0
Christopher Herndon	2	3	32	1	11%	2.7
Ty Johnson	4	6	17	0	21%	-2.8
Jamison Crowder	1	4	16	0	14%	-6.1
Frank Gore	2	2	10	0	7%	-0.3
Jeff Smith	1	1	5	0	4%	1.2
La'Mical Perine	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ashtyn Davis	7	4	0.0	0
Neville Hewitt	9	2	0.0	0
Harvey Langi	8	3	0.0	0
Jordan Jenkins	2	7	0.5	1
Bryce Hall	7	0	0.0	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	3	3	0.0	0
Henry Anderson	1	4	0.5	0
Lamar Jackson	3	1	0.0	0
Marcus Maye	0	3	0.0	1
Quinnen Williams	0	3	0.5	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	37/49	366	3	0	3	17.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kalen Ballage	16	44	2.8	-4.5
Justin Herbert	2	11	5.5	1.6
Troymaine Pope	3	4	1.3	-1.4
Joshua Kelley	4	-2	-0.5	-1.8
Ty Long	1	-28	-28.0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	16	19	145	1	40%	4.9
Mike Williams	4	7	72	1	15%	7.1
Tyron Johnson	1	1	54	0	2%	3.4
Hunter Henry	4	7	48	1	15%	3.8
Kalen Ballage	7	9	27	0	19%	-2.8
Troymaine Pope	2	2	12	0	4%	-0.8
Jalen Guyton	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.1
Joshua Kelley	2	2	4	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rayshawn Jenkins	4	3	0.0	0	1
Kenneth Murray	3	3	0.0	0	0
Tevaughn Campbell	3	1	0.0	1	2
Linval Joseph	4	0	0.0	0	0
Denzel Perryman	2	2	1.0	0	0
Nasir Adderley	3	0	0.0	0	0
Michael Davis	1	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0
Casey Hayward	2	0	0.0	0	0
Tyron Johnson	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -10
Closing total: 47
NYJ moneyline: +351
LAC moneyline: -425

Chargers closed -10, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47; the game landed 62 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: NYJ 13 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Anthony Lynn