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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:45 PM ET · 16 final
Philadelphia Eagles 17 at Cleveland Browns 22. Final.
Browns -2.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 11
Cleveland Browns 22, Eagles 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 13:47, 2nd and 7, on Sione Takitaki — 22.3 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Cleveland Browns 22–17. Biggest swing: Q2 13:47, Browns +22.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:47 · 2nd and 7
Sione Takitaki
Browns
(13:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 26-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 44-S.Takitaki [21-D.Ward] at 50. 44-S.Takitaki for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Miles SandersBrownsQ1 8:08(8:08) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right guard to CLE 4 for 1 yard (69-C.Malveaux). FUMBLES (69-C.Malveaux), RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at CLE 4.
12.8pts
Richard RodgersEaglesQ4 13:04(13:04) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 85-R.Rodgers to CLE 26 for 29 yards (29-S.Redwine).
13.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Browns won this one — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 3 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Browns won this one — 4 of 14 on third down, against Eagles at 2 of 12 on third down.
(13:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 26-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 44-S.Takitaki [21-D.Ward] at 50. 44-S.Takitaki for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +22.3 for BrownsExpected points +9.28 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 37
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:47PHI +22% win prob(13:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 26-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 44-S.Takitaki [21-D.Ward] at 50. 44-S.Takitaki for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:04CLE +14% win prob(13:04) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 85-R.Rodgers to CLE 26 for 29 yards (29-S.Redwine).
1st · 8:08PHI +13% win prob(8:08) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right guard to CLE 4 for 1 yard (69-C.Malveaux). FUMBLES (69-C.Malveaux), RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at CLE 4.
3rd · 11:59CLE +12% win prob(11:59) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 85-R.Rodgers for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:40CLE +11% win prob(10:40) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to PHI 7 for 54 yards (95-J.Ostman).
3rd · 11:47CLE +10% win prob(11:47) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-K.Hodge pushed ob at PHI 33 for 42 yards (28-W.Parks).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cody Parkey's 46-yard field goal with 9:04 left in the 3rd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Browns ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.24Eagles: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.18Browns: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Eagles: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.00Browns: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Eagles: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.30Browns: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 65 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Browns’s 63 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Browns 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−3.5σtheir own normal+3.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's sack or hit rate, 27.5%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 14.7% in week 5.
3.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 10.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · +3.1σ from their own normal
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 31.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 10.9 points clear of the next team along.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +3.0 pts in week 10 against −7.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Browns27.5%
off script — got home · +16.2 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+3.06× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.5%, 16.2 points above their season mean of 11.3% and 3.1 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(13:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 26-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 44-S.Takitaki [21-D.Ward] at 50. 44-S.Takitaki for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:47 · Eagles · 2nd & 7 at CLE 46 · gained nothing · -9.28 EP · −23.8% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 95 yards from the CLE 4 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
36%
Yards
639
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3972%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.3248%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0945%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14-0.4743%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.1414%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.4633%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 31
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Browns 5
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Browns 4 to the Eagles 1
The period ended3 plays, from the Eagles 1 to the Eagles 3
2nd quarter47 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Eagles0Browns6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Browns 46
Eagles0Browns7
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Browns 43
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 45
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Browns 47
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 23
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Eagles 40
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 35
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 31
Offense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 30
Eagles6Browns7
Eagles7Browns7
Touchdown2 plays
Eagles7Browns10
Field goal6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Eagles 27
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 26
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 42 to the Eagles 39
Eagles7Browns12
Drive ended3 plays, from the Eagles 2 to the Eagles 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Eagles 24
4th quarter63 plays
No good4 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Eagles10Browns12
Field goal7 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Browns 25
Eagles10Browns18
Eagles10Browns19
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Eagles 5
Punt6 plays
Eagles10Browns22
Field goal13 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Eagles 10
Intercepted10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Browns 10
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 3 to the Browns 5
Eagles16Browns22
Eagles17Browns22
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Browns 4
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -2.5
Closing total
45.5
Eagles moneyline
+122
Browns moneyline
-135
Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 39 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 41°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the east; 0.45 in of precipitation; slight rain.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Eagles 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Kevin Stefanski
4th · 14:04
PHI +10% win prob
(14:04) 2-C.Parkey 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Barnett), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
1st · 1:11PHI +9% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left guard to PHI 1 for no gain (21-J.Mills, 93-J.Hargrave).
Eaglescategory by categoryBrowns
Eagles0
Browns6
