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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh27
BY 24final margin
JaguarsJacksonville3
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 at Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Final.
Steelers -11 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 11
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Jaguars 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:51, 4th and 3, on Chris Boswell — 13.0 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:51 · 4th and 3
Chris Boswell
Jaguars
(8:51) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Steelers closed -11 and covered, winning by 24.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:51, Jaguars +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chase ClaypoolSteelersQ2 7:07(7:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 11-C.Claypool for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.8pts
Minkah FitzpatrickSteelersQ2 3:09(3:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass short right intended for 88-T.Eifert INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick (94-T.Alualu) at PIT 2. 39-M.Fitzpatrick pushed ob at PIT 39 for 37 yards (30-J.Robinson).
6.4pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.67 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 4 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.44 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 42 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Steelers168 of 176 plays carry both curves
(8:51) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Swing +13.0 for JaguarsExpected points +3.79 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 40 points higher than the market did.play 19
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:51PIT +13% win prob(8:51) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
2nd · 3:09PIT +6% win prob(3:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass short right intended for 88-T.Eifert INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick (94-T.Alualu) at PIT 2. 39-M.Fitzpatrick pushed ob at PIT 39 for 37 yards (30-J.Robinson).
2nd · 7:07JAX +6% win prob(7:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 11-C.Claypool for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00JAX +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson to PIT 46 for 22 yards (37-T.Herndon).
1st · 10:57JAX +5% win prob84-K.Cole Sr. kicks onside 11 yards from JAX 35 to JAX 46. 27-M.Allen (didn't try to advance) to JAX 46 for no gain (42-A.Wingard).
1st · 0:13JAX +4% win prob(:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 67 yards to PIT 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 24 for 5 yards (31-N.Cottrell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase Claypool's 31-yard touchdown catch with 7:07 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:02Chase McLaughlin·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+30–3
2nd10:50Chris Boswell·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+33–3
2nd7:07Chase Claypool·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+710–3
4th10:26Chris Boswell·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+320–3
4th6:46Eric Ebron·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+727–3
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryJaguars
Steelers9–0Jaguars
377Total yards206
5.4Yards per play3.7
41%Success rate30%
44%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
9Explosive plays3
19First downs12
0Sacks taken2
1Turnovers4
The read
Steelers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Steelers: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.44Jaguars: −0.44 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Steelers: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.67Jaguars: −0.67 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Steelers: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.09Jaguars: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 70 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 56 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Jaguars 1.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.44.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 33 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jaguars6.5%
inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was JAX's sack or hit rate, 6.5% against a season mean of 13.2% — and JAX swings 7.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%75 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%75 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%75 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Full-time93%70 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Full-time92%69 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Full-time92%69 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Full-time92%69 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time80%60 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation79%59 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Luton pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass short right intended for 88-T.Eifert INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick (94-T.Alualu) at PIT 2. 39-M.Fitzpatrick pushed ob at PIT 39 for 37 yards (30-J.Robinson).
Q2 3:09 · Jaguars · 2nd & 9 at PIT 11 · gained nothing · -6.03 EP · −17.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 71 yards from the PIT 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
36%
Yards
579
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.0673%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.4885%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.3444%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7+0.1986%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR7+0.0314%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Steelers0Jaguars3
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Steelers 23
No good8 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Jaguars 27
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Jaguars 47
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 5 to the Jaguars 42
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 14
2nd quarter50 plays
Steelers3Jaguars3
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Jaguars 26
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 26
Steelers9Jaguars3
Steelers10Jaguars3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Jaguars 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Steelers 11
Steelers16Jaguars3
Steelers17Jaguars3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Jaguars 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 44
Intercepted6 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Jaguars 24
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Steelers 36
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 40
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 29
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Jaguars 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 35
4th quarter44 plays
Punt3 plays
Steelers20Jaguars3
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Jaguars 27
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 49
Steelers26Jaguars3
Steelers27Jaguars3
Touchdown5 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 20
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 35
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 41 to midfield
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 20
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
