2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

PIT -11 ✓U 47 ✓Steelers closed -11 and covered, winning by 24.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:51, PIT +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:51PIT — JAX PIT ball · 4th & 3PIT 87%

(8:51) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:51PIT +13% win prob(8:51) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q2 · 3:09PIT +6% win prob(3:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass short right intended for 88-T.Eifert INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick (94-T.Alualu) at PIT 2. 39-M.Fitzpatrick pushed ob at PIT 39 for 37 yards (30-J.Robinson).
Q2 · 7:07JAX +6% win prob(7:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 11-C.Claypool for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 15:00JAX +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson to PIT 46 for 22 yards (37-T.Herndon).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Jaguars
Offensive plays	70	56
Total yards	377 (edge)	206
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	0.09 (edge)	-0.44
Success rate	41% (edge)	30%
Dropback rate	66%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.67
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.09 (edge)
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.44.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

32/46, 267 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.7 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Jake LutonQB

16/37, 151 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT

-26.3 expected points added · -13.9% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

13 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

17 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

12/16 for 111 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Chase ClaypoolWR

4/8 for 59 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	10	52	4:03	Turnover on downs
2	PIT	JAX 46	7	19	2:10	Turnover on downs
3	JAX	JAX 36	7	11	2:23	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 5	10	53	5:22	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 9	4	5	1:02	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 24	9	50	4:15	Turnover on downs
7	JAX	JAX 25	5	1	0:56	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 29	7	56	2:49	Touchdown
9	JAX	JAX 25	8	49	4:03	Interception
10	PIT	PIT 39	8	61	2:13	Touchdown
11	JAX	JAX 25	3	19	0:15	Interception
12	PIT	PIT 29	4	18	0:29	Interception
13	PIT	PIT 25	5	-1	1:39	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 31	8	19	3:50	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 20	7	20	3:01	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 20	4	9	1:31	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 29	8	28	4:22	Punt
18	JAX	JAX 20	5	-1	1:26	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 26	9	29	3:50	Turnover on downs
20	JAX	JAX 25	6	24	1:49	Interception
21	PIT	50	5	35	1:52	Touchdown
22	JAX	JAX 25	5	10	0:43	Interception
23	PIT	PIT 41	4	9	2:27	Punt
24	JAX	JAX 15	4	8	1:30	Turnover on downs
25	PIT	JAX 23	3	0	2:00	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 61 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	32/46	267	2	1	0	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	13	89	6.8	0	3.2
Benny Snell	7	15	2.1	1	-1.6
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Anthony McFarland	3	3	1.0	0	-1.6
Mason Rudolph	3	-4	-1.3	0	-4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	12	16	111	0	35%	1.9
Chase Claypool	4	8	59	1	17%	4.6
Eric Ebron	4	7	36	1	15%	-0.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	4	4	20	0	9%	1.2
JuJu Smith-Schuster	4	5	19	0	11%	1.3
James Washington	1	3	12	0	7%	-1.5
James Conner	3	3	10	0	7%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Vince Williams	4	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	1	4	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	2	0.0	2	2
Robert Spillane	3	1	0.0	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	2	2	0.0	2	2
Cameron Sutton	2	1	0.0	0	1
Joe Haden	3	0	0.0	0	0
Bud Dupree	2	1	1.0	0	1
T.J. Watt	2	0	0.0	0	0
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	2	0	0.0	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jake Luton	16/37	151	0	4	2	-26.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	17	73	4.3	0	1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Chark	4	8	41	24%	-5.0
Tyler Eifert	2	5	32	15%	-4.7
Keelan Cole	2	5	26	15%	-0.8
James Robinson	2	2	21	6%	1.7
Chris Conley	1	4	13	12%	-1.8
Ben Ellefson	1	3	10	9%	-2.3
Devine Ozigbo	3	3	5	9%	-4.0
Eric Saubert	1	1	3	3%	-0.4
Dare Ogunbowale	0	2	0	6%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Joe Schobert	8	5	0
Chris Claybrooks	8	2	0
Jarrod Wilson	6	3	1
Tre Herndon	7	0	1
D.J. Hayden	3	2	0
Andrew Wingard	3	1	1
Myles Jack	2	2	0
Doug Costin	0	2	1
K'Lavon Chaisson	2	0	0
James Robinson	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -11
Closing total: 47
PIT moneyline: -475
JAX moneyline: +386

Steelers closed -11 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 47; the game landed 30 — under by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: PIT 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Doug Marrone