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3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Titans167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(8:05) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
Swing +23.8 for RavensExpected points −0.07 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 8:05BAL +24% win prob(8:05) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
Overtime · 5:29BAL +20% win prob(5:29) 22-D.Henry left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:26BAL +17% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 9:24TEN +16% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 18 for -9 yards (58-H.Landry III).
Overtime · 5:43BAL +15% win prob(5:43) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at BAL 29 for 11 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
2nd · 14:18TEN +15% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 54-T.Bowser [48-P.Queen] at TEN 47. 54-T.Bowser to TEN 22 for 25 yards (84-C.Davis).
4th · 0:28
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 29-yard rushing touchdown with 5:29 left in overtime put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:42Jonnu Smith·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+77–0
1st1:54Justin Tucker·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+37–3
2nd11:08Justin Tucker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+37–6
3rd5:37Stephen Gostkowski·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap M.Overton+313–21
4th11:15Stephen Gostkowski·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap M.Overton+316–21
4th2:26A.J. Brown·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill · two-point good+824–21
4th0:18Justin Tucker·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+324–24
Overtime5:29Derrick Henry·29-yd TD run29-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+630–24
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryRavens
Titans6–2Ravens
426Total yards308
6.3Yards per play4.8
49%Success rate42%
42%Third-down rate60%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays5
25First downs19
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Titans: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.11Ravens: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.34Titans: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.00Titans: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.06Ravens: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 68 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Ravens’s 64 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Titans 5, Ravens 5.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 64.6% in week 10 against 45.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 10 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Ravens22.2%
right on their number · +4.7 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TEN's sack or hit rate, 5.9% against a season mean of 10.6% — and TEN swings 7.9 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
S.Koch punts+24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:05) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
OT 8:05 · Ravens · 4th & 8 at BAL 27 · gained nothing · -0.07 EP · +23.8% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 90 yards from the TEN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
43%
Yards
733
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1660%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.1057%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.4861%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12+0.1142%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.0920%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.1643%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6-0.2633%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5+0.4060%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 39
Titans6Ravens0
Titans7Ravens0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Ravens 1
Titans7Ravens3
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Titans 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 32
2nd quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Titans 38
Titans7Ravens6
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Titans 7
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 19
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Titans7Ravens12
Titans7Ravens14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Titans 2
Titans10Ravens14
Field goal18 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Ravens 14
The period ended4 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 29
Titans10Ravens20
Titans10Ravens21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Titans 31
Titans13Ravens21
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Ravens 7
Intercepted8 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Ravens 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 17
4th quarter45 plays
Titans16Ravens21
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Ravens 4
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 45
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSeven
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Titans22Ravens21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Ravens 6
Titans24Ravens21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.3 seconds
Titans24Ravens24
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Titans 10
The period ended3 plays
Overtime12 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Titans30Ravens24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Ravens 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
