2020 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -6 upsetO 50.5 ✓Ravens closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 30–24. Biggest swing: OT 8:05, BAL +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 8:05TEN — BAL BAL ball · 4th & 8TEN 71%

(8:05) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 8:05BAL +24% win prob(8:05) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
OT · 5:29BAL +20% win prob(5:29) 22-D.Henry left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:26BAL +17% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 9:24TEN +16% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 18 for -9 yards (58-H.Landry III).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Ravens
Offensive plays	68	64
Total yards	426 (edge)	308
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	0.11
Success rate	49% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	53%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.34 (edge)	0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	9/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

22/31, 259 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.5 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

17/29, 186 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.6 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

28 att, 133 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

J.K. DobbinsRB

15 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

5/7 for 113 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

5/7 for 96 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 36	5	3	1:07	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 21	10	40	5:16	Touchdown
3	BAL	BAL 25	14	48	6:47	Turnover on downs
4	TEN	TEN 16	6	22	2:42	Interception
5	BAL	TEN 22	7	13	3:03	Turnover on downs
6	TEN	TEN 16	5	3	1:40	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 40	10	67	4:08	Touchdown
8	TEN	TEN 25	15	38	4:29	Turnover on downs
9	BAL	BAL 25	3	4	0:48	End of half
10	TEN	TEN 25	5	4	1:34	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 26	8	54	3:52	Touchdown
12	TEN	TEN 25	9	73	4:01	Turnover on downs
13	BAL	BAL 17	8	27	3:47	Interception
14	TEN	TEN 15	12	81	5:34	Turnover on downs
15	BAL	BAL 25	8	20	3:29	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 10	11	92	5:25	Touchdown
17	BAL	BAL 25	10	70	2:03	Turnover on downs
18	TEN	TEN 25	2	0	0:15	Turnover on downs
19	BAL	BAL 25	5	2	2:02	Punt
20	TEN	TEN 27	6	73	2:37	Touchdown

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 92 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	22/31	259	2	1	2	8.5
Logan Woodside	1/1	7	0	0	0	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	28	133	4.8	1	-2.4
Ryan Tannehill	4	35	8.8	0	2.1
Cameron Batson	1	4	4.0	0	0.4
D'Onta Foreman	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	5	7	113	0	22%	5.5
A.J. Brown	4	7	62	1	22%	6.2
Anthony Firkser	4	5	33	0	16%	2.1
Cameron Batson	2	2	21	0	6%	3.0
Jonnu Smith	4	6	20	1	19%	-3.2
Geoff Swaim	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1	1	7	0	3%	3.0
Jeremy McNichols	1	1	2	0	3%	-1.1
Derrick Henry	1	2	-1	0	6%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rashaan Evans	5	4	0.0	0	0
Harold Landry	4	3	1.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	5	2	0.0	0	1
Amani Hooker	3	3	0.0	1	2
Will Compton	3	3	0.0	0	0
Joshua Kalu	3	1	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Butler	4	0	0.0	0	0
Desmond King	3	1	0.0	0	2
Jeffery Simmons	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jayon Brown	2	1	0.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	17/29	186	1	1	1	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	15	70	4.7	1	2.6
Lamar Jackson	13	51	3.9	0	0.6
Gus Edwards	3	6	2.0	0	-1.5
Mark Ingram	2	2	1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	5	7	96	1	25%	8.9
Dez Bryant	4	5	28	0	18%	-0.6
Willie Snead	3	7	23	0	25%	-0.7
J.K. Dobbins	2	2	15	0	7%	3.4
James Proche	1	1	14	0	4%	2.3
Patrick Ricard	1	1	5	0	4%	0.6
Devin Duvernay	1	2	5	0	7%	-2.7
Marquise Brown	0	3	0	0	11%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Patrick Queen	3	6	0.0
Marlon Humphrey	8	0	0.0
Malik Harrison	3	4	0.0
DeShon Elliott	3	3	0.0
Derek Wolfe	2	4	0.0
Matt Judon	4	2	1.0
Chuck Clark	4	1	0.0
Pernell McPhee	3	1	0.0
Justin Ellis	2	1	0.0
Marcus Peters	3	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -6
Closing total: 50.5
TEN moneyline: +221
BAL moneyline: -253

Ravens closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 54 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: TEN 10 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs John Harbaugh